河南及邻区地震前中小地震活跃-平静的定量指标研究

以累计频度定量计算方法，分区讨论了河南及邻区1970年以来地震活动非线性度ZL值的时间进程曲线，系统计算了M≥5．0级地震前的ZL值，结果表明：开始出现活跃(平静)异常的时间集中在地震前1—2年，结束异常的时间在地震前一年内，集中于0—4个月。同时提出了异常的定量指标以及发震类型。     

存在一个气候吸引子吗？

过去有关几百万年气候演变的信息,多半来卜＆过深海岩芯同位素记录的时间序列。气候学的一个主要任务是,从这些有限的信息中识别气候动刀学源的基本特征、我们利用非线性动力系统理论．仅用这些时间序列资料就可确定某些气候的关键特征。     

Nonlinear optimization method of ship floating condition calculation in wave based on vector

Ship floating condition in regular waves is calculated. New equations controlling any ship＇s floating condition are proposed by use of the vector operation. This form is a nonlinear optimization problem which can be solved using the penalty function method with constant coefficients. And the solving process is accelerated by dichotomy. During the solving process, the ship＇s displacement and buoyant centre have been calculated by the integration of the ship surface according to the waterline. The ship surface is described using an accumulative chord length theory in order to determine the displacement, the buoyancy center and the waterline. The draught forming the waterline at each station can be found out by calculating the intersection of the ship surface and the wave surface. The results of an example indicate that this method is exact and efficient. It can calculate the ship floating condition in regular waves as well as simplify the calculation and improve the computational efficiency and the precision of results.     

一个两时间层分裂显格式海洋环流模式(MASNUM)及其检验

A two-time-level, three-dimensional numerical ocean circulation model（named MASNUM） was established with a two-level, single-step Eulerian forward-backward time-differencing scheme. A mathematical model of large-scale oceanic motions was based on the terrain-following coordinated, Boussinesq, Reynolds-averaged primitive equations of ocean dynamics. A simple but very practical Eulerian forward-backward method was adopted to replace the most preferred leapfrog scheme as the time-differencing method for both barotropic and baroclinic modes. The forward-backward method is of second-order of accuracy, computationally efficient by requiring only one function evaluation per time step, and free of the computational mode inherent in the three-level schemes. This method is superior to the leapfrog scheme in that the maximum time step of stability is twice as large as that of the leapfrog scheme in staggered meshes thus the computational efficiency could be doubled. A spatial smoothing method was introduced to control the nonlinear instability in the numerical integration. An ideal numerical experiment simulating the propagation of the equatorial Rossby soliton was performed to test the amplitude and phase error of this new model. The performance of this circulation model was further verified with a regional（northwest Pacific） and a quasi-global（global ocean simulation with the Arctic Ocean excluded） simulation experiments. These two numerical experiments show fairly good agreement with the observations. The maximum time step of stability in these two experiments were also investigated and compared between this model and that model which adopts the leapfrog scheme.     

不确定模型下双重倒向随机递归最优控制问题的研究

本文基于实际金融问题,提出并进一步研究一类不确定模型下的倒向双重随机递归最优控制问题。首先提出在该模型中,代价泛函由sup■定义,其中■是由一组双重倒向随机微分方程的解组成的集合,再利用先验估计、线性化方法、It■公式等方法,推导出该最优控制问题的最大值原理,进而最终给出该问题最优控制的必要条件和充分条件。     

深水钢悬链立管疲劳寿命评估分析

在时域内分析深水钢悬链立管在平台运动和波流载荷共同作用下的非线性动力响应;采用雨流计数法处理立管节点应力的时间历程,选用DoE.E型S-N曲线分析立管在单一海况和平台运动联合作用下的疲劳损伤;将各方向含概率分布的疲劳损伤进行叠加,得到立管整体的全方向疲劳损伤及疲劳寿命。平台的运动为六自由度的运动预报数据,波流载荷由某海域实际的波浪统计数据采用Morison公式计算所得。计算结果表明钢悬链立管疲劳寿命的极值点分别位于悬挂点附近和触地点附近,对立管疲劳寿命极值点各方向疲劳损伤分布情况进行了分析。所提方法为钢悬链立管疲劳分析提供了新思路,给出的结论对钢悬链立管设计分析有一定借鉴意义。     

灾害海洋环境下TLP深水张紧式生产立管安全性评估

针对我国南海海域可能出现的超过百年一遇的灾害性海况,结合挪威船级社的DeepC以及ABAQUS软件,通过全系统耦合分析获得张紧式生产立管随TLP平台在灾害海况下的强迫运动,并考虑波浪、流等环境载荷的联合作用,研究TLP张紧式生产立管在灾害海况下的随机结构动力响应。根据广义极值理论对随机结果数据进行拟合后,基于相应规范进行强度分析,完成立管在灾害海洋环境下的安全性评估。     

Curvelet变换域侧扫声纳图像增强算法

针对海底侧扫声纳图像对比度低、纹理弱、噪声严重等问题,提出了一种基于第二代Curvelet变换的声纳图像增强算法。首先对原始声纳图像进行多尺度、多方向的Curvelet变换分解,得到低频子带和高频子带;然后引入非线性S型函数对低频系数进行处理,提高图像整体的对比度;采用一种可以避免过度增强的新型非线性函数对各尺度的高频子带系数进行处理,提高图像整体的对比度,增强图像边缘和纹理细节,并通过估计噪声水平设定阈值进行阈值降噪。最后经Curvelet逆变换得到增强图像。实验表明,该方法不仅改善了海底侧扫声纳图像对比度低的问题,而且降低了噪声,突出了声纳图像的边缘和纹理细节。     

基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型

作者针对远洋渔场渔情预报精度偏低的问题,提出一种基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型。该模型利用空间自回归对收集到的渔业历史数据进行预处理,然后通过空间聚类将所有数据样本根据地理位置分划成若干个区域,最后研究每个区域中环境数据与渔获数据之间的数学关系,各自建立栖息地适宜性指数模型(Habitat Suitability Index,HSI),并以印度洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)为例进行验证。结果表明,本模型的均方差为0.1742,与传统线性回归方法的均方差0.2363相比,能更好地表达海洋环境数据与渔获量之间的关系,预测精度显著提高。     

基于半数值方法的限弯器剪弯刚度分析

柔性管缆限弯器存在接触非线性导致剪弯刚度分析困难。为此先基于悬臂梁方程建立剪弯刚度理论模型;然后构建考虑接触边界的锁合结构数值模型,得到其扭转刚度曲线;最后结合理论分析和数值计算求得考虑接触非线性的限弯器剪弯刚度曲线,并同传统的整体数值方法相比较,验证该半数值分析方法的有效性。对比发现基于半数值方法的限弯器剪弯计算效率远高于传统数值方法,其结果误差也满足工程需求;并且限弯器锁合结构处受接触边界影响有明显的非线性;限弯器子梁这一短梁结构基于Timoshenko梁理论计算的结果精度更高也更保守。相较于传统数值方法,该半数值方法用方程直接表达部分参数与剪弯刚度关系,并可以高效地分析限弯器剪弯刚度,使设计工作更加高效。