基于卫星遥感的太湖蓝藻水华时空分布规律认识

由于大尺度水文模型和无资料区水文研究是当前国际水文研究的重点和难点,通过参数区域化方法来估计大尺度区域和无资料区的模型参数值成为了研究的热点之一将HBV模型应用于东江流域及其子流域,采用代理流域法和全局乎均法来估计该区域内无资料流域的模型参数研究表明：HBV模型能较好得用于东江流域径流模拟;交叉检验中,较小的序和ME值对应的参数,其转移效果不一定比较大的R^2和ME值对应的参数转移效果差;全局平均法中,面积权重平均值和泰森多边形插值后平均并不能明显改进子流域算术平均值估计无资料流域的模型参数的模拟结果;两者都能有效用于东江流域无资料流域的参数估计,且效果相差不大。     

SD模型在洱海流域营养物削减策略研究中的应用

针对洱海富营养化问题,本文在深入分析洱海流域营养物输运转移特征的基础上,应用VENSIM-DSS构建了洱海流域的社会、经济、技术、环境SD耦合模型.模型由7个子系统组成,确定了一套适用于洱海流域的耦合模型特征参数.对入湖TN、TP进行追根溯源,模拟结果表明洱海流域入湖TN主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和干湿沉降子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TN的88%;入湖TP主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和水土流失子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TP的89%.以此为基础通过设置4种不同的营养物削减情景,模拟未来10年入湖TN、TP的变化,并通过构建的政策评价子系统和DILLON模型定量评价不同削减方案的可行性,提出最优洱海流域营养物削减方案.     

基于SWAT模型的南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染模拟

本文利用SWAT模型结合实测数据,对南四湖流域2001-2010年年均非点源氮磷污染进行模拟,分析了南四湖流域非点源氮磷负荷空间分布特征,计算各河流流域对南四湖湖区污染的贡献率,并对非点源氮磷污染严重的关键区进行识别.研究表明:(1)先模拟湖东和湖西的两个典型小流域的非点源氮磷污染,并将模型推及整个南四湖流域,该方法不仅提高了计算效率,且得到了较好的模拟结果.通过对比发现,湖东的模拟效果要好于湖西,一定程度上说明SWAT模型在起伏较大的地区能取得更高的精度.(2)南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染严重,几乎所有区域的氮负荷超标,40%以上的区域磷负荷超标严重.湖东非点源氮磷污染较湖西严重,其中洸府河流域是南四湖湖区非点源氮磷污染的主要贡献者.(3)通过对径流量、泥沙负荷、氮负荷、磷负荷的相关分析可以得出,南四湖流域非点源氮负荷以溶解态为主,随径流进入水体;非点源磷负荷以吸附态为主,随泥沙进入水体.     

核废料贮存围岩介质THM耦合过程的数值模拟

针对上期论文对核废料贮存围岩介质THM耦合过程的力学分析建立的数学模型,本文推导了求解THM耦合力学模型的有限元计算公式,并编制了有限元计算程序,并用BM T 1问题的算例,探讨了核废料贮存裂隙岩体水热耦合迁移以及应力响应特征。     

隧道塌方的尖点灾变模型及应用

针对隧道塌方失稳问题，运用灾变理论建立隧道塌方失稳的尖点灾变模型。基于平衡曲面方程，可求得隧道围岩体内承载区介质刚度与对应的松驰区弱化介质本构曲线拐点处理刚度之比值K，并给出了塌方与否的判据，当K≤1时，隧道将发生塌方失稳；当K＞1时，隧道将不会发生塌方失稳。根据此模型，笔者解释了隧道中几种常见的灾变破坏机理，并提出了相应的治理方案。     

BP模型双样本训练方法

根据气象预报应用情况，分析ＢＰ模型训练人工神经元网络中存在的问题，并提出双样本训练方案。试验表明，采用双样本训练的网络，实际预报能力较高。     

The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

This study evaluates the fidelity of Arctic and Antarctic oscillations (AO and AAO for short,respectively) in the coupled general circulation models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4).The AO and AAO during 1970-1999 in 24 models are analyzed and compared with that in ERA-40 and NCEP-1.Models'performance is seasonally dependent,with best reproducibility of both spatial structure and trend in winter.In most models,the spatial pattern and temporal trend of AAO during this period are more delicately simulated than AO.After picking out models with better performance according to the Taylor diagram,we find that their ensemble mean can obviously improve models'reproducibility.The AO and AAO in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B Projection during the 21st century are also briefly analyzed.The results reveal that both the AO and AAO indices keep increasing during 1970-2099,with a steadier pace of AO than AAO.The spatial difference of sea level pressure between 2060 2089 and 1970-1999 shows decreased values in polar regions,and increased values in midlatitudes.The results manifest that the ozone recovery during the mid 21st century may not weaken such a trend.     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

1 INTRODUCTION Being an important composition of the atmosphere, aerosol attracts increasing attention from the scientific community in recent years, together with the radiative forcing it causes and effects it imposes on the climate system. The anthropogenic aerosol affects the climate both directly and indirectly. The climate is directly affected when solar shortwave radiation is scattered and absorbed in what is known as the 搖mbrella effect? which can be dated back to as early as mor…     

INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE OVER ASIAN-PACIFIC REGION ON THE SUMMERTIME NORTHEASTERN ASIAN BLOCKING HIGH*

Synthesis analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD) methods were used to study the impact of surface air temperature (SAT) over Asian-Pacific region on the summertime northeastern Asian blocking high (NABH) with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data.The results showed that 500 hPa geopotential height and SAT fields over Asian-Pacific region shared the similar pattern of East Asian Pacific (EAP) wave train;there was steady remote response relationship between the EAP wave train in summer and the "+-+" pattern of tropical SAT in zonal direction from former winter to summer;there were two relative negative(positive) Walker circulations over the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific when being more(less) summertime NABH. The influence of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on the summertime NABH was possibly as follows.The special distribution of SSTA in tropical zonal direction continuously forced the tropical convection and zonal circulation from former winter to summer,and led them to act anomaly.Finally the abnormal conditions were transported to middle-high latitudes through EAP wave train and yielded the advantageous or disadvantageous atmospheric circulation background for the summertime NABH.     

宽波段傅里叶变换太阳光谱仪等光程差采样系统设计

太阳成像光谱探测是诊断太阳大气磁场和热力学参数的主要手段. 傅里叶变换太阳光谱仪(Fourier Transform Solar Spectrometer, FTSS)具有宽波段的优势, 是当前中红外高分辨率太阳光谱探测的最佳选择. FTSS通过采集目标辐射等光程差干涉图, 反演获得光谱图, 等光程差采样的间隔决定了反演光谱波长范围. 因此从FTSS宽波段光谱观测对不同等光程差采样间隔需求出发, 基于现场可编程门阵列(Field Programmable Gate Array, FPGA)技术, 采用全数字分频、倍频方案, 设计了一套宽波段FTSS等光程差采样系统. 采用分布式余数补偿方法, 有效解决了在参考激光干涉信号倍频过程中, 输出采样信号在输出信号周期间误差累积问题, 并降低了输出采样信号的误差及非均匀性; 经功能仿真及实验测试, 系统在200Hz--50kHz频率范围内, 频率误差delta $<$ 0.04%, 可有效满足FTSS的300nm--25μm宽波段的光谱观测数据采集需求, 为后续可见和红外波段FTSS的研制奠定了技术基础.