宁波平原地面沉降全耦合数值模拟研究

宁波地面沉降已有半世纪,随着城市化快速推进,地表动静荷载剧增,地面沉降已从地下水不合理开采的区域性地面沉降逐渐向大规模地表荷载和基坑降排水造成的工程性地面沉降转变。自2008年底市区地下水实施禁限采后,地面沉降漏斗仍继续缓慢扩张,监测中心沉降量持续增加,并相继出现了多个新型小漏斗。在充分论述工程性因素在宁波平原区域地面沉降中作用和特征的基础上,基于有限差分法,建立参数随应力应变变化的地下水开采和区域建筑荷载双重作用下的全耦合动态地面沉降方程。通过实测数据和模拟结果的对比研究,显示模型良好的拟合关系,并预测了2012～2015年地面沉降发展趋势,为宁波地面沉降防治及中心城区城市化建设、海洋经济发展提供依据。     

海洋天然气水合物勘探与开采研究的新态势(二)

3海底水合物开采的数字模拟近几年来,数字模拟(numerical simulation)广泛应用于天然气水合物的研究,特别是水合物开采的数字模拟方法已成为水合物勘探和开采不可缺少的手段.海底天然气水合物是一种赋存于海底沉积层中的特殊能源矿产,其开采方法不同于一般固体矿产,开采技术也更加复杂和困难.因此,海底水合物的开发和开采是科技界面临的一种新挑战.海底水合物矿层无法直接接触、深海钻探测试费用昂贵以及最初开采尝试的成功机率不大,这些因素迫使科学家去寻找和研究一种合理的替代方法,用以进行开采前的先期评估,这就是近几年发展起来的数字模拟方法.数字模拟功能强大,方法灵活,与实地开采试验和实验室研究相比,成本也较低廉,因此,它在评估水合物开采的潜力和制定开采设计方面起着重要作用.该方法能够提供矿区和实验室勘测工作的设计,提供无法观测的物理化学参数,回答开采过程中各种参数的演变趋势等诸多疑难问题.更重要的是,它可以帮助鉴定和选择水合物开采的靶区和"富矿带".已经在加拿大冻土带Mallik地区天然气水合物的试验开采中证明了数字模拟的有效性和实用性.     

Numerical simulation of the influence of lower-crustal flow on the deformation of the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

On the basis of distribution of active fault and regional rheological structure, a three-dimensional finite element model of Sichuan-Yunnan region, China, is constructed to simulate contemporary crustal motion and stress distri- bution and discuss the dynamic mechanism of crustal motion and deformation in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Lin- ear Maxwell visco-elastic model is applied, which includes the active fault zones, the elastic upper crust and vis- cous lower crust and upper mantle. Four different models with different boundary conditions and deep structure are calculated. Some conclusions are drawn through comparison. Firstly, the crustal rotation about the eastern syntaxis of the Himalaya in the Sicuan-Yunnan region may be controlled by the special dynamic boundary condition. The drag force of the lower-crust on the upper crust is not negligible. At the same time, the main active fault zones play an important role in the contemporary crustal motion and deformation in Sichuan-Yunnan region.     

地下核试验监测的数字模拟

地下核试验监测的数字模拟泰勒等１９９３年３月２３一２５日在美国科罗拉多州的杜兰戈召开了有关地下核试验监测数字模拟的研讨会。会议是在能源部（ＤＯＥ）武器控制和禁止扩散办公室（ＯＡＣＮ）的资助下，由洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室（ＬＡＮＬ）的能源地区计划处主持举...     

利用伪谱法模拟横向各向同性介质中的波

介质的弹性常数为三维四阶张量的分量,共有８１个,由于应力张量和应变张量的对称性及能量密度是应变的二次函数,一般各向异常性介质的独立弹性常数可减为２１个,如果介质具有较高的对称性,独立弹性常数的数目会更少。 对于地壳和上地幔,具有５个独立弹性常数的横向各向同性介质是一个非常好的近似,本研究中横向各向同性介质的对称轴方向可以是任意的（即对称轴可以不平等于铅直方向）,在此情况下,需要进行坐标变换,如果已知介质在某一坐标系（其坐标轴平行或垂直于介质的对称轴）中的弹性常数,我们能够容易地利用变换公式得到变换后新坐标系中的弹性常数。 本文提出了一种方案,利用伪谱法既能模拟横向各向同性介质中的平面波,也能模拟点源激发的波场。在勘探地球物理和地震学中,模拟横向各向同性介拮中传播的平面波及区域源产生的波是最重要的研究课题之一。然而在一般各向异性介质中,很难或不可能确定弹性波的相速度和偏振方向,但在横向各向同性介质中,则可以通过坐标变换来实现,这里我们所提出的方法可以用于横向各向同性介质中弹性波的模拟。     

高斯射线束在工程物探中的应用

以高斯射线束在工程物探中的应用和研究为出发点,根据工程物探的特点,试验并分析了频率对地震剖面结果的影响,总结出了能够分辨薄层的最佳频率;在进行了多种浅层模型的计算试验并对该方法技术验证后,将其应用到3个工程物探实际资料上模拟验证,取得了比较理想的效果和初步认识。     

浅源强震至浅源特大地震震级M_e的快速测定

提出了根据20°～90°距离范围之内的宽频带远震P波信号快速测定浅源地震能量震级Me的新程序。为了完成这项工作,我们根据地球参考模型AK135Q用数字模拟方法计算了不同周期的频谱振幅衰减函数。根据这些函数,我们校正了远震记录频谱的传播路径效应,计算了地震辐射能量Es和震级Me。我们用累积的P波窗模拟实时或近实时的程序,并用61个浅源地震进行验证。结果表明,我们的方法可在地震发震时刻后的7～15min内迅速可靠地测定出震级Me因此,这一程序适用于快速反应系统的实施。     

Simulation of land-use scenarios for Beijing using CLUE-S and Markov composite models

This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.     

Groundwater protection from cadmium contamination by permeable reactive barrier in Qian＇an of Jilin, China

This research studies the reliability of an activated carbon permeable reactive barrier in removing cadmium from a contaminated shallow aquifer. Laboratory tests have been performed to characterize the equilibrium and kinetic adsorption properties of the activated carbon in cadmium-containing aqueous solutions. A 2D numerical model has been used to describe pollutant transport within a groundwater and the pollutant adsorption on the permeable reactive barrier （PRB）. In particular, it has been considered the case of a PAB used to protect a lake or downstream from Cd （II） contaminated groundwater. Numerical results show that the PAB can achieve a long-term efficiency by preventing lake or downstream pollution for several months.     

An analysis and modeling study of a sea fog event over the Yellow and Bohai Seas

In this study, a sea fog event which occurred on 27 March 2005 over the Yellow and Bohai Seas was investigated observationally and numerically. Almost all available observational data were used, including satellite imagery of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-9, three data sets from station observations at Dandong, Dalian and Qingdao, objectively reanalyzed data of final run analysis (FNL) issued by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) results. Synoptic conditions and fog characteristics were analyzed. The fog formed when warm,moist air was advected northwards over the cool water of the Yellow and Bohai Seas, and dissipated when a cold front brought northerly winds and cool, dry air. In order to better understand the fog formation mechanism, a high-resolution RAMS modeling with a 6km×6km grid, initialized and validated by FNL data, was designed. A 48h modeling that started from 12 UTC 26 March 2005reproduced the main characteristics of this sea fog event. The simulated lower visibility area agreed reasonably well with the sea fog region identified from the satellite imagery. Advection cooling effect seemed to play a significant role in the fog formation.