Geostatistical interpolation of object counts collected from multiple strip transects: Ordinary kriging versus finite domain kriging

Data collected along transects are becoming more common in environmental studies as indirect measurement devices, such as geophysical sensors, that can be attached to mobile platforms become more prevalent. Because exhaustive sampling is not always possible under constraints of time and costs, geostatistical interpolation techniques are used to estimate unknown values at unsampled locations from transect data. It is known that outlying observations can receive significantly greater ordinary kriging weights than centrally located observations when the data are contiguously aligned along a transect within a finite search window. Deutsch (1994) proposed a kriging algorithm, finite domain kriging, that uses a redundancy measure in place of the covariance function in the data-to-data kriging matrix to address the problem of overweighting the outlying observations. This paper compares the performances of two kriging techniques, ordinary kriging (OK) and finite domain kriging (FDK), on examining unexploded ordnance (UXO) densities by comparing prediction errors at unsampled locations. The impact of sampling design on object count prediction is also investigated using data collected from transects and at random locations. The Poisson process is used to model the spatial distribution of UXO for three 5000 × 5000 m fields; one of which does not have any ordnance target (homogeneous field), while the other two sites have an ordnance target in the center of the site (isotropic and anisotropic fields). In general, for a given sampling transects width, the differences between OK and FDK in terms of the mean error and the mean square error are not significant regardless of the sampled area and the choice of the field. When 20% or more of the site is sampled, the estimation of object counts is unbiased on average for all three fields regardless of the choice of the transect width and the choice of the kriging algorithm. However, for non-homogeneous fields (isotropic and anisotropic fields), the mean error fluctuates considerably when a small number of transects are sampled. The difference between the transect sampling and the random sampling in terms of prediction errors becomes almost negligible if more than 20% of the site is sampled. Overall, FDK is no better than OK in terms of the prediction performances when the transect sampling procedure is used.     

Statistical Research on the Seismic Quiescence Before the 1988 Lancang-Gengma Earthquakes with M=7.6 and 7.2 in Yunnan Province,China

In this paper,the temporal and spatial variation process of seismicity in areas from Lancang to Tengchong before the 1988 Lancang-Gengma earthquakes(M=7.6,7.2),January 1980 to October 1988,is studied in detail according to the theory that the whole process of earthquake sequence in the time stage of anomalous seismicity before a strong event may be considered as the non-homogeneous Poisson process.The results demonstrate that(1)from April 1985 to April 1988,there existed an obvious difference of seismicity in spatial distribution in the whole region; to the north of Lancang,there occurred two seismic quiescent belts:one is 210 km long for M≥3.5 events and anotheris 160 km long for M≥3.0 events; therefore,this may be classified into four sub-regions from south to north,that is,the south region,the mid-region,the mid'-region,and the north region.(2)Before the mainshocks,there existed anomalous seismic quiescence for as Song as 42 months in the mid-region(M≥3.5)and 32.5 months in the mid'-region(M≥3.0)     

Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone

The most complete and reliable data of strong (M _s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM _s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M _s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.     

Première datation UPb des orthogneiss œillés de la zone axiale de la Montagne noire (Sud du Massif central) : nouveaux témoins du magmatisme ordovicien dans la chaı̂ne Varisque

We present new U–Pb results on felsic Augen orthogneisses from the Axial Zone of the Montagne Noire (French Massif Central). The data indicate Ordovician ages, 456±3 and 450±6 Ma for two samples collected at ‘Pont-de-Larn’ and ‘Gorges d'Héric’, respectively. These ages are interpreted as the igneous emplacement age of the granitic protolith. To cite this article: F. Roger et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes'''' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece

INTRODUCTIONTheexaminedareaislocatedintheGulfofCorinthandhasbeenrecognizedasoneofthemostactiveriftsinthewholeAegeanSea .Itsquaternarynormalfaulting (Sebriere ,1 977)anditshighseismicity (PapazachosandPapazachou ,1 997;AmbraseysandJackson ,1 990 )makeitaphysicallaboratorywithintheMediterraneanarea ,wherethephysicalprocessrelatedtotheseismiccyclecouldbestudied .ThecityofAeghionexperiencedastrong (MW =6 4 )earthquakeinJune 1 995,whichcausedseveredamage (Tselentis ,etal.,1 996 ) .Twent…     

An Assessment of Changes in Winter Cold and Warm Spells over Canada

The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) indicated that observed 20th century changes in severalclimatic extremes are qualitatively consistent with those expected due to increasedgreenhouse gases. However, a lack of adequate data and analyses make conclusiveevidence of changing extremes somewhat difficult, particularly, in a global sense.In Canada, extreme temperature events, especially those during winter, can havemany adverse environmental and economic impacts. In light of the aforementionedIPCC report, the main focus of this analysis is to examine observed trends andvariability in the frequency, duration, and intensity of winter (Jan–Feb–Mar) cold and warm spells over Canada during the second half of the 20th century.Cold spell trends display substantial spatial variability across the country. From1950–1998, western Canada has experienced decreases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of cold spells, while in the east, distinct increases in the frequency and duration have occurred. These increases are likely associated with morefrequent occurrences of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)during the last several decades. With regard to winter warm spells, significantincreases in both the frequency and duration of these episodes were observedacross most of Canada. One exception was found in the extreme northeasternregions, where warm spells are becoming shorter and less frequent. The resultsof this study are discussed within the context of climate warming expectations.     

Les plis hercyniens kilométriques couchés vers l'ouest-sud-ouest dans la région du pic du Midi d'Ossau–col du Somport (zone axiale des Pyrénées occidentales)Kilometric westward Hercynian recumbent folds in the western Pyrenees (Pic du Midi d'Ossau area)

The Palaeozoic of the western Pyrenees shows two superposed tectonics easily defined by their different geometry and the major unconformity of the Permian sediments and volcanics on the Devono-Carboniferous series: an Hercynian tectonic found only in the pre-Permian series, characterised by kilometric westward recumbent folds with a weak cleavage; a Pyrenean tectonic, characterised by tight east–west folds, upright to overturned to the south with slaty cleavage, which is the only deformation found in the Permian and Mesozoic series and the second deformation in the pre-Permian Palaeozoic. The Hercynian folding, roughly perpendicular to the trend of the Pyrenees characterises the northern branch of the Ibero-Armorican virgation. To cite this article: P. Matte, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 773–779.     

Sensitivity of seismic hazard evaluations to uncertainties determined from seismic source characterization

The sensitivity and overall uncertainty in peak ground acceleration (PGA)estimates have been calculated for the city of Tabriz, northwestern Iran byusing a specific randomized blocks design. Eight seismic hazard models andparameters with randomly selected uncertainties at two levels have beenconsidered and then a linear model between predicted PGA at a givenprobability level and the uncertainties has been performed. The inputmodels and parameters are those related to the attenuation, magnituderupture-length and recurrence relationships with their uncertainties.Application of this procedure to the studied area indicates that effects ofthe simultaneous variation of all eight input models and parameters on thesensitivity of the seismic hazard can be investigated with a decreasingnumber of computations for all possible combinations at a fixed annualprobability. The results show that the choice of a mathematical model ofthe source mechanism, attenuation relationships and the definition ofseismic parameters are most critical in estimating the sensitivity of seismichazard evaluation, in particular at low levels of probability of exceedance.The overall uncertainty in the expected PGA for an annual probability of0.0021 (10% exceedence in 50 yr) is expressed by a coefficient ofvariation (CV) of about 34% at 68% confidence level for a distance ofabout 5km from the field of the major faults. The CV will decrease withincreasing site-source distance and remains constant, CV = 15%, fordistances larger than 15 km. Finally, treating alternative models on theoverall uncertainty are investigated by additional outliers in input decision.     

Tricomi and Kummer functions in occurrence, waiting time and exceedance statistics

 Three and four parameter distributions of events and intervals based on the Kummer and Tricomi functions are shown to be statistically tractable. The Kummer distributions cover events less as well as more clustered than the Poisson while the Tricomi distributions have two and three parameter negative binomials as special cases. This flexibility and the moment relations between the parameters make them attractive in cases where the Poisson distribution proves inadequate.