中国省际人口迁移短期预测分析

人口迁移是一个时空路径依赖过程,同时受迁移存量和周边迁移状况影响。当前人口迁移预测大多建立在时间序列模型之上,重点考虑迁移流在时间维度上的联系,忽视了其中的时空关联。该文将特征向量时空滤波方法与普通泊松模型相结合,考虑迁移流中可能存在的时空滞后和同期两种结构,对1985-2015年不同时段的中国省际人口迁移流数据进行建模和估计,并利用拟合程度较优的模型预测2015-2025年省际人口迁移的发展趋势。结果表明:1)特征向量时空滞后和同期滤波泊松模型均能较好地模拟研究时段省际人口迁移过程,自1985年以来我国省际人口迁移流不仅受迁出地和迁入地经济、社会等因素影响,也与过去迁移存量及周边迁移流密切相关;2)区域人口规模和GDP对迁移流的“推—拉”作用符合预期,地区人口规模较高和经济发展水平较低会促进人口外迁,反之则有利于吸引外来人口;3)与特征向量时空滞后滤波泊松模型相比,时空同期模型更便于捕捉省际人口迁移过程中的时空路径依赖特性,意味着当前人口迁移流的发展更易受到同时期周边迁移流的影响,表现出明显的羊群效应;4)预计2015-2025年我国省际迁移总量持续增加,呈现更集聚的空间模式,高迁入与高迁出区域在空间上相连,形成一条南北贯通的“高密度迁移地带”。将特征向量时空滤波模型拓展到人口迁移这一空间相互作用领域,可为当前构建更加完善的要素市场化配置体制机制等提供科学参考。     

Spatiotemporal correlation in WebGIS group-user intensive access patterns

Group-user intensive access to WebGIS exhibits spatiotemporal behaviour patterns with aggregation features and regularity distributions when geospatial data are accessed repeatedly over time and aggregated in certain spatial areas. We argue that these observable group-user access patterns provide a foundation for improved optimization of WebGIS so that it can respond to volume intensive requests with a higher quality of service and improve performance. Subsequently, a measure of access popularity distribution must precisely reflect the access aggregation and regularity features found in group-user intensive access. In our research, we considered both the temporal distribution characteristics and spatial correlation in the access popularity of tiled geospatial data (tiles). Based on the observation that group-user access follows a Zipf-like law, we built a tile-access popularity distribution based on time-sequence, to express the access aggregation of group-users with heavy-tailed characteristics. Considering the spatial locality of user-browsed tiles, we built a quantitative expression for the correlation between tile-access popularities and the distances to hotspot tiles, reflecting the attenuation of tile-access popularity to distance. Moreover, given the geographical spatial dependency and scale attribute of tiles, and the time-sequence of tile-access popularity, we built a Poisson regression model to express the degree of correlation among the accesses to adjacent tiles at different scales, reflecting the spatiotemporal correlation in tile access patterns. Experiments verify the accuracy of our Poisson regression model, which we then applied to a cluster-based cache-prefetching scenario. The results show that our model successfully reflects the spatiotemporal aggregation features of group-user intensive access and group-user behaviour patterns in WebGIS. The refined mathematical method in our model represents a time-sequence distribution of intensive access to tiles and the spatial aggregation and correlation in access to tiles at different scales, quantitatively expressing group-user spatiotemporal behaviour patterns with aggregation features and a regular distribution. Our proposed model provides a precise and empirical basis for performance-optimization strategies in WebGIS services, such as planning computing resource allocation and utilization, distributed storage of geospatial data, and providing distributed services so as to respond rapidly to geospatial data requests, thus addressing the challenges of volume-intensive user access.     

Multivariate properties of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin,China: Magnitude,frequency, timing,and related causes

Daily precipitation/temperature data collected at 74 weather stations across the Pearl River basin of China (PRBC), for the years 1952–2013, were used to analyse extreme precipitation (EP) processes at annual and seasonal scales in terms of precipitation magnitude, occurrence rates, and timing. Peak‐over‐threshold sampling, modified Mann‐Kendall trend tests, and Poisson regression model were utilized in this study. Causes driving the observed statistical behaviours of EP were investigated, focusing particularly on the impacts of temperature change and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). EP events, which occur mainly during April and September, are most frequent in June. At an annual scale, they are subject to relatively even interannual distributions during the wet season. Significant trends were observed in the magnitude, frequency, and timing of EP events during the dry seasons, although no such trends were seen during the wet seasons. Seasonal shifts in EP can easily trigger sudden flood or drought events and warming temperatures, and ENSO events also have significant impacts on EP processes across the PRBC, as reflected by their increased magnitude and frequency in the western PRBC and decreased precipitation magnitudes in the eastern PRBC during ENSO periods. These results provide important evidence of regional hydrological responses to global climate changes in terms of EP regimes in tropical and subtropical zones.     

基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

煤岩动静力学参数关系试验研究

煤岩的动、静力学参数关系的试验研究,对研究煤岩的位移和变形特征及工程支护设计具有重要意义。将取自新河煤矿3煤的煤样加工成Φ50 mm×100 mm的圆柱体标准试件;采用500 kHz频率的纵横波换能器分别进行纵横波速度测试;在MTS815.03电液伺服试验机上进行单轴压缩试验,得到静态弹性模量和泊松比。试验结果表明:煤岩动弹性模量与横波速度相关性强于与纵波速度的相关性,煤岩介质的纵波对孔隙和裂隙发育程度的敏感程度要比横波高;煤岩试件Ed/Es比值主要集中在1.4~1.7,室内煤岩试件动、静弹性模量和动静泊松比之间存在较好的线性相关关系。      

运用H-k扫描和人工读取震相到时两种方法对比研究云南地区地壳结构

利用云南及其邻区59个宽频地震台站记录到的30°~100°远震资料,采用P波接收函数方法对云南地区的地壳厚度和地壳平均泊松比分布进行分析。研究结果显示:用H-k扫描和人工读取震相到时两种方法得到的云南地区地壳厚度和泊松比分布情况较为吻合。研究区域内Moho面埋深南浅北深,横向变化达30~40 km。在川滇菱形块体东南缘,地壳厚度等值线呈东南向舌状突出。泊松比呈块体分布特征,断裂两侧差异显著。高泊松比的分布主要集中在滇缅泰块体内和研究区域北部以及小江断裂附近,这与该区处于印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞俯冲前缘的特殊地理位置有关。     

岩石力学参数对裂缝发育程度的影响

弹性模量(E)、泊松比(μ)及密度(ρ)是岩石的重要力学参数, 当其他条件一致时, 在一定程度上影响着裂缝的发育。以塔里木盆地某气田为研究区, 在造缝期古应力场分析的基础上, 利用储层裂缝数值模拟技术, 计算得到储层裂缝孔隙度; 再以裂缝孔隙度为指标, 分析岩石力学参数对裂缝发育程度的影响。研究结果表明, 裂缝孔隙度随弹性模量的增加而增大, 同等应力条件下, 弹性模量越大, 裂缝孔隙度越高, 破裂程度越大; 泊松比小于0.2时, 裂缝孔隙度随泊松比增加而逐渐下降; 泊松比超过0.2后, 裂缝孔隙度随泊松比增加而逐渐增大; 岩石密度对裂缝孔隙度的影响不大, 基本上可以忽略。      

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新疆巴楚和塔什库尔干地震台下方地壳结构研究

Using the teleseismic waveform data recorded by the seismic station Bachu( hereafter referred to as station BCH) i n the Tarim Basin and the seismic station Taxkorgan(h ereafter referred to as station TAG) i n the west Kunlun Mountains for years,we applied the receiver function H-κ stacking method to study the crustal structure beneath stations BCH and TAG. The results showed that there are obvious differences in the crustal thickness beneath stations BCH and TAG,and the regional crustal thickness and terrain have a very good corresponding relationship. There are high crustal average V P/ V S values beneath the two stations. The crustal thickness is 44 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 849 beneath station BCH. There is a sharp discontinuity in the middle of the crust beneath station BCH at a depth of 21 km. There is a low average P wave velocity and low V P/ V S from the surface to the discontinuity beneath station BCH.The depth of the discontinuity is consistent with the lower interface of the focal depth from accurate location in the Jiashi earthquake source area adjacent to station BCH; and may be the crustal brittle-ductile conversion boundary. The crustal thickness is 69 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 847 beneath station TAG,a thicker crust and high V P/ V S may indicate that materials in the lower crustal are prone to plastic flow,which is responsible for the thickening of the crust.     

苏州市区信息通讯企业空间集聚与新企业选址

高科技产业是全球化背景下城市发展与区域竞争的关键,但是高科技产业发展空间极不平衡,空间要素显著影响高科技企业区位选择及空间集聚。针对现有研究主要集中在国家、省等大尺度单元,本文引入空间点模式分析方法,探讨了1996-2006年间苏州市区不同空间尺度上信息通讯企业的时空集聚特征。研究发现:在0~6km的尺度上,信息通讯企业表现出明显的集聚特征,并随着尺度的增加呈现出倒"U"型集聚趋势;随着时间的推移,企业空间集聚的"热点地区"逐渐从老城区向外围推移,但是集聚峰区依然主要分布在老城区及其外围的国家和省级开发区;同时,新企业的选址与原有企业的分布特征表现出很强的相关性。运用计数模型的计量结果也表明企业集聚特征对新企业区位选择具有显著影响,同时起作用的还有地方政府政策影响下的开发区建设、城市内外交通条件、自然环境条件等因素。