A non-hydrostatic ocean model with a scalable multigrid Poisson solver

A non-hydrostatic ocean model using an effective Poisson solver is developed. The Poisson solver is a combination of the multigrid method, the Krylov-subspace method, and the sparse approximate inverse. Its numerical cost only linearly increases with total number of computational cells, and it also has high parallel computing efficiency. The numerical cost of the non-hydrostatic model described in the present paper remains only twice of that of a hydrostatic model, even with non-smooth topography and with a huge number of computational grid cells on massively parallelized computer systems. Therefore, it has a potential to expand the applicability of non-hydrostatic ocean models. We also present the preliminary result of the high-resolution non-hydrostatic experiment on Ice Shelf Water overflow in the southern Weddell Sea, which shows good agreement with observations in terms of the pathway of dense water and velocity field.     

利用接收函数研究河北及邻区地壳厚度与泊松比分布特征

本文收集了河北及邻区174个宽频地震仪2007年1月到2011年12月记录到的全球范围内体波震级6.0级以上、共488个远震事件的波形资料。利用H-k叠加搜索方法得到河北及邻区143个台站下方接收函数、地壳厚度和泊松比值分布特征。结果表明,河北及邻区地壳厚度具有明显的分块特征并与区域构造背景有较好的相关性,泊松比值在0.25上下变化,与全球的泊松比估计值相当。河北及邻区地壳厚度以太行山山脉为界呈现出东薄西厚的特征并与地表地形起伏呈正相关;山西地震带南北地壳厚度存在明显差异,大同、宁武及安泽盆地地区泊松比值超过0.3;张-渤地震带地壳厚度由东至西逐渐增厚,泊松比值存在较强的横向变化。华北平原地震带呈现出的薄地壳和低泊松比值特征可能与华北克拉通拆沉作用相关联。     

中国城市直下型地震危险性分析研究

本文根据泊松模型,并采用第四代区划图综合潜源区数据方案,计算了我国(不包含港、澳、台湾地区)大部分城市未来50年发生6级左右和7级以上直下型地震的危险性。并初步探讨如何计算城市和城市群的直下型地震概率。结果表明:我国很多城市都可能发生直下型地震,而且危险性比较高。     

胶州湾风暴潮增水重现值的长期预测

以胶州湾30 a风暴潮过程的极值增水值为统计序列,按照年、季、月等不同时段,分别抽样极值增水样本,提出泊松最大熵分布,采用年极值法和过阈法对增水重现值进行长期预测,统计分析结果对于胶州湾防潮减灾有参考作用,其随机分析方法对于遭受风暴潮影响的海岸区域有借鉴意义。     

Stage Predictions of Landslide and Subsidence from an Once-Through Cycle

In this paper both processes of landslide and subsidence are consid-ered to be limited systems.Each of these systems in nature might be re-garded as an organism.Generally their lifespan must develop with com-mon ecological characteristics,including several evolutional stages,such asinitiation,growth,maturation,decline and death.Among these stages,maturation is emphasized so as to find the occurring or thriving date ofboth systems.An once-through cycle of both landslide and subsidence isestablished and is accurately predicted by a developed,mathematic model of thePoisson cycle.The Weibull distribution is cited for a landslide example.Both fundamentals are discussed.Stage predictions of landslide and subsid-ence are performed for several examples.Back analysis of landslides thathave already happened are studied with the same model.And when com-pared with results from the biological mathematic model and with practicalresults,it is found that they correspond.Stage prediction of subsidences isalso researched     

Estimation of the waiting time distributions of earthquakes

Whether the earthquake occurrences follow a Poisson process model is a widely debated issue. The Poisson process model has great conceptual appeal and those who rejected it under pressure of empirical evidence have tried to restore it by trying to identify main events and suppressing foreshocks and aftershocks. The approach here is to estimate the density functions for the waiting times of the future earthquakes. For this purpose, the notion of Gram-Charlier series which is a standard method for the estimation of density functions has been extended based on the orthogonality properties of certain polynomials such as Laguerre and Legendre. It is argued that it is best to estimate density functions in the context of a particular null hypothesis. Using the results of estimation a simple test has been designed to establish that earthquakes do not occur as independent events, thus violating one of the postulates of a Poisson process model. Both methodological and utilitarian aspects are dealt with.     

航空重力向下延拓的误差影响分析

本文从分析航空重力向下延拓过程中偶然误差和系统误差的变化特性入手,进而提出处理办法。首先,利用试验说明移去恢复法局限性,同时表明需处理系统误差和偶然误差的必要性。然后,采用理论推演和数值模拟计算分别估计了系统误差和偶然误差影响,试验结果发现:系统误差影响和偶然误差影响均与数据格网间隔、向下延拓高度呈线性关系,当格网化间隔较小和延拓高度较高时系统误差影响和偶然误差影响较大。最后,提出使用半参数模型和正则化算法的两步法估计系统误差和减弱偶然误差影响,试验结果说明两步法处理向下延拓各类误差影响优于仅用半参数模型或正则化算法的结果,在试验数据的偶然误差标准差为2×10~(-5) m/s~2、恒值系统误差3×10~(-5) m/s~2和变值系统误差标准差约1.3×10~(-5) m/s~2时,以及向下延拓高度6.3 km和格网间隔6′的条件下,两步法向下延拓结果的精度可达2.3×10~(-5) m/s~2。     

晶质岩石的地震波性质及其地质、地球物理意义

人类有关地球内部物质成份、结构和物理状态的认识绝大多数来自于地震波的资料,而地震波资料的正确解释又离不开岩石地震波性质的高温高压实验研究。地壳和地幔岩石的地震波性质和各向异性是当今世界地学前沿研究的一项重要内容,该领域横跨了地震学、岩石物理学和构造地质学,在过去一段时间里非常活跃并取得许多重要的成果。本文仅将作者近年来研究岩石地震波性质（例如,岩石波速滞后性,地震波速随围压的变化规律,纵、横波速之间的关系,泊松比等）的部分进展做一简扼的综述,并谨以此纪念已故中国科学院院士张文佑先生诞辰100周年。     

Bayesian modelling of environmental risk: example using a small area ecological study of coronary heart disease mortality in relation to modelled outdoor nitrogen oxide levels

Bayesian modelling of health risks in relation to environmental exposures offers advantages over conventional (non-Bayesian) modelling approaches. We report an example using research into whether, after controlling for different confounders, air pollution (NO_x) has a significant effect on coronary heart disease mortality, estimating the relative risk associated with different levels of exposure. We use small area data from Sheffield, England and describe how the data were assembled. We compare the results obtained using a generalized (Poisson) log-linear model with adjustment for overdispersion, with the results obtained using a hierarchical (Poisson) log-linear model with spatial random effects. Both classes of models were fitted using a Bayesian approach. Including spatial random effects models both overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation effects arising as a result of analysing data from small contiguous areas. The first modelling framework has been widely used, while the second provides a more rigorous model for hypothesis testing and risk estimation when data refer to small areas. When the models are fitted controlling only for the age and sex of the populations, the generalized log-linear model shows NO_x effects are significant at all levels, whereas the hierarchical log-linear model with spatial random effects shows significant effects only at higher levels. We then adjust for deprivation and smoking prevalence. Uncertainty in the estimates of smoking prevalence, arising because the data are based on samples, was accounted for through errors-in-variables modelling. NO_x effects apparently are significant at the two highest levels according to both modelling frameworks.

泊松阻抗属性在陆丰南古近系低渗砂岩储层“甜点”识别中的应用

陆丰南地区古近系储层纵横向非均质性较强,沉积成岩演化复杂,寻找具有经济产能的“甜点”储层是古近系高效勘探的关键。基于岩石物理分析及坐标旋转明确了泊松阻抗为识别“甜点”储层最敏感的弹性参数。在协克里金低频建模基础上,开展叠前弹性参数反演直接获得了相关弹性参数（纵波速度vp、横波速度vs和密度ρ）,进而构建了泊松阻抗等弹性参数数据体并以此为基础开展砂岩储层及“甜点”储层的定量解释及预测。反演结果表明,目标层文昌组“甜点”储层分布明显受沉积相带的控制,岩性主要为水下分流河道沉积微相砂岩,沉积相特征与钻井资料吻合。此技术方法的应用可实现古近系“甜点”储层由定性到定量的转变,提高了古近系深层勘探成功率,为古近系“增储上产”提供了有力的支撑。