断裂两盘岩性差异对汶川地震的影响

岩性差异导致层间变形差异是常见的构造变形现象.龙门山断裂带中段北川—映秀断裂虹口至清平段,断裂上盘为坚硬的前震旦系褶皱基底,下盘则为软弱的前陆盆地沉积物,两者之间具有较大的岩性差异.本文利用基于R-minimum的有限元算法对在一个地震复发间隔内的断层活动进行非线性摩擦接触模拟.计算结果显示,上下盘泊松比的差异则对断层破裂时间及快体变形影响不大,但不同的泊松比条件下断层的破裂过程略有不同,而上下盘杨氏模量的差异能够延迟断层的破裂时间,延长破裂过程,扩大地震复发间隔,且扩大了下盘深度10 km以上和10 km以下地层变形的差异.双断坡构造能够通过深部的应力分解来削弱断层下盘深度10 km以上的变形,但是在上下盘岩性一致的情况下,双断坡构造推迟了主断层的滑动时间,延长了破裂过程,而在强硬上盘和软弱下盘共存的条件下,发育于软弱下盘的次级破裂并不能对主断层的破裂时间和破裂过程造成较大影响.北川—映秀断裂上盘强硬的彭灌杂岩和下盘软弱的含碳沉积地层对汶川地震双断坡式破裂的生成具有重要的促进作用.     

Stochastic particle based models for suspended particle movement in surface flows

Modeling of suspended sediment particle movement in surface water can be achieved by stochastic particle tracking model approaches.In this paper,different mathematical forms of particle tracking models are introduced to describe particle movement under various flow conditions,i.e.,the stochastic diffusion process,stochastic jump process,and stochastic jump diffusion process.While the stochastic diffusion process can be used to represent the stochastic movement of suspended particles in turbulent flows,the stochastic jump and the stochastic jump diffusion processes can be used to describe suspended particle movement in the occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows.An extreme flow herein is defined as a hydrologic flow event or a hydrodynamic flow phenomenon with a low probability of occurrence and a high impact on its ambient flow environment.In this paper,the suspended sediment particle is assumed to immediately follow the extreme flows in the jump process（i.e.the time lag between the flow particle and the sediment particle in extreme flows is considered negligible）.In the proposed particle tracking models,a random term mainly caused by fluid eddy motions is modeled as a Wiener process,while the random occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows can be modeled as a Poisson process.The frequency of occurrence of the extreme flows in the proposed particle tracking model can be explicitly accounted for by the Poisson process when evaluating particle movement.The ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be obtained from the proposed stochastic models via simulations.The ensemble mean and variance of particle velocity are verified with available data.Applicability of the proposed stochastic particle tracking models for sediment transport modeling is also discussed.     

上海日资纺织服装制造企业的空间格局

选择上海作为研究区域,以日资纺织服装制造企业名录为数据基础,运用GIS软件,分析1995-2012年上海日资纺织服装制造企业的空间分布规律及其影响因素。结果发现：企业集聚与扩散并存,并向郊区化发展,其中开发区是企业集聚的重要空间载体,并沿高速、高架路呈带状分布,其集聚强度和规模随时间推移迅速增大;外商独资企业与合资合作企业的集聚格局相似,中心依赖性较弱,而大规模企业倾向于集聚在郊区,小规模企业中心依赖性较强。运用泊松回归模型的计量结果表明,接近高速或高架路因素对企业具有显著吸引作用,其次是开发区、集聚因素及地价因素影响也较大,高等院校影响相对较小,而其他4个因素作用并不明显。此外,与合资合作企业相比,外商独资企业的区位选择对集聚效应、开发区以及高等院校更加敏感,而受地价、接近高速高架路等影响相对较小。     

冻土动力学参数研究的成果综述与展望

通过对前人的试验成果进行整理, 得到冻土动力学参数随温度、频率、应变幅、含水量和围压等因素的整体变化规律. 整体上看, 冻土的动弹性模量和动剪切模量随温度的降低而增大、随荷载振动频率的增加而增大、随动应变幅的增加而减小、随含水量的增加先增大后减小、随围压的增加而增大; 冻土的泊松比随温度的降低而增大; 冻土的阻尼比随温度的降低而减小, 随频率、应变幅、含水量、围压的变化规律性不强. 通过对试验条件和数值模拟时的实际工况对比分析, 给出如下建议: 动弹性模量和动剪切模量的预估适合用两段式线性模型, -5℃可以作为两段式的分界点; 列车荷载作用下冻土的动力响应属于小应变幅的振动, 冻土动力学参数应选择波速法的试验结果.     

使用泊松方程插值方法进行遥感影像融合

以高空间分辨率的全色影像为引导,高光谱分辨率的多光谱数据作为已知条件,利用泊松方程插值方法对各个波段影像在空间维进行插值,最终得到的多光谱影像既具有原多光谱影像的光谱信息,同时又具有全色影像的清晰细节。该方法还具有不受波段数目限制的特点,与多重网格方法结合可以提高数据处理效率。使用该融合方法对QuickBird和IKONOS数据进行融合实验,实验结果在RASE、ERGAS、空间细节质量、SSIM等多项质量指标上优于传统融合方法。     

Probability maps of landslide reactivation derived from tree-ring records: Pra Bellon landslide, southern French Alps

Probability maps of landslide reactivation are presented for the Pra Bellon landslide located in the southern French Alps based on results obtained with dendrogeomorphic analysis. Spatiotemporal patterns of past landslide activity was derived from tree-ring series of 403 disturbed mountain pine trees growing in the landslide body. In total, 704 growth disturbances were identified in the samples indicating 22 reactivation phases of the landslide body between 1910 and 2011. The mean return period was 4.5 years. Given the spatiotemporal completeness of the reconstruction, probabilities of landslide reactivation were computed and illustrated using a Poisson distribution model and for 5, 20, 50, and 100 years. Probability of landslide reactivation is highest in the central part of the landslide body and increases from 0.13 for a 5-year period to 0.94 for a 100-year period. Conversely, probabilities of reactivation are lower at its margins. The proposed method differs from conventional approaches based on statistical analyses or physical modeling that have demonstrated to have limitations in the prediction of spatiotemporal reactivation of landslides. Our approach is, in contrast, based on extensive data on past landslides and therefore allowed determination of quantitative probability maps of reactivation derived directly from the frequency of past events. This approach is considered a valuable tool for land managers in charge of protecting and forecasting people and their assets from the negative effects of landslides as well as for those responsible for land use planning and management. It demonstrates the reliability of dendrogeomorphic mapping that should be used systematically in forested shallow landslides.     

不同加载方位角下单轴压缩千枚岩扩容特性

对成兰铁路4种典型千枚岩开展不同加载方位角的单轴压缩扩容特性试验研究,研究结果表明：千枚岩一般在峰前产生扩容现象,加载方位角和各向异性程度影响其扩容行为。扩容前后纵、横向应变速率明显不同,扩容前轴向应变率大于横向,扩容后则反之;千枚岩体积应变正负转换点相对峰值点有3种出现情况：峰前、峰后和不出现,不同出现概率与加载过程中原生裂纹的参与程度、形式以及对破坏模式的影响有关。千枚岩扩容率最大值出现在轴向应变最大瞬间,高方位角对扩容更敏感;千枚岩扩容起始应力普遍较低,不同方位角和岩性差别较大;弹性模量、泊松比显著地反映了千枚岩加载中的变形破坏过程,扩容对其产生重要影响。     

莺歌海盆地地层各向异性多波地震判别技术研究

充分利用中国在海上采集到的多波地震资料:PZ分量(P波)时间偏移剖面、X分量(P-SV波)时间偏移剖面和Y分量(P-SH波)时间偏移剖面,对莺歌海盆地3个构造(A构造、B构造、C构造)和D砂体的地下岩石介质的各向异性特征进行了研究,Y分量(P-SH波)、X分量(P-SV波)的旅行时间闭合差、准各向异性系数和泊松比结果表明A构造、B构造、C构造等存在不同程度的各向异性,且A构造的各向异性最强.实践证明,在海洋石油勘探中,多波地震资料用于地下岩石介质各向异性的判别是可行的.     

多孔隙岩石加卸载力学特性及本构模型研究

为了研究岩石在加载-卸载过程中的应力-应变关系,以砂岩为例,对其进行常规三轴加卸载试验。分析了峰后卸载阶段岩石的非线性特性,对岩石的损伤变量进行定义,给出了峰后卸载过程中用于描述应力-应变关系的弹性模量模型。通过分析加载-卸载过程中的轴向应变与径向应变的关系,得到了卸载过程中泊松比模型。引入D-P塑性模型,针对砂岩的塑性硬化特性,对硬化函数进行修正,建立了与等效塑性应变相关联的损伤模型。将计算模型矩阵化后进行数值计算。在此过程中得到如下结论:多孔隙岩石在加载过程中表现出明显的非线性特征,随着体应力的增大,岩石的弹性模量逐渐增大。岩石峰后卸载过程中,当轴向应力大于围压时,应力-应变可以利用峰前弹性阶段的弹性模量模型乘以连续性因子进行描述。随着等效塑性应变的增大,泊松比先增大后减小,最终趋于稳定。峰后卸载过程中,等效塑性应变不发生变化,此时泊松比保持不变。利用提出的本构模型进行了数值计算,数值计算结果与试验结果进行对比,结果表明,提出的模型能够反映出岩石在峰后卸载过程中的应力-应变规律。     

地面沉降泊松旋回预测方法：以上海地面沉降长期预测为例

在上海地面沉降长期预测研究的实际经验基础上,对泊松旋回模型进行了一些改进,建立了地面沉降泊松旋回预测的数学模型,提出了应用于预测时的技术处理方法。对预测的上海部分标点1995—2050年地面沉降量10～37cm进行了一定评估,认为在现有研究水平上是可信的。引入衰减系数于泊松旋回模型之中是本方法的特色之一。