中国1995—2000年省间人口迁移模拟与迁移因素对迁移规模贡献的分解

尝试用泊松模拟方法建立人口迁移模型,并且与传统人口迁移模型的结果进行比较,说明泊松人口迁移模型的优点.本研究使用一种新的人口迁移因素分解方法,在人口迁移模型的基础上,估计空间因素、迁入地和迁出地因素的空间结构、迁入地迁出地因素本身对人口迁移规模的贡献.本研究使用的实例数据是中国2000年人口普查得到的1995—2000年省间人口迁移数据.     

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提出一种加权半参数模型,对半参数模型中的参数分量与非参数分量分别加权,针对数据的不同特点合理确定权重。分别对模拟数据和GPS真实数据进行处理,并与最小二乘法、岭估计法和半参数模型进行对比,通过残差、均方误差等指标的对比分析可见,加权半参数估计模型得到的估计值与真值最接近,估计残差浮动平缓,均方误差小。     

AVO纵横波反演

作者在本文介绍了，利用地震资料AVO纵横波分离（加权叠加）技术求出的纵波剖面、横波剖面，再进行模拟退火反演而求出的纵波速度（Vp)、横波速度（Vs)、密度（d)、拉梅常数（λ）、剪切模量（μ）、流体压力（Pf)及泊松比（σ）等参数的一项实用AVO油气预测技术。     

地震发生中长期预测中的非稳态泊松模型

基于实际地震的发生在一个活动期内具有加速活动的特点 ,作者提出一种非稳态泊松模型。与稳态泊松模型中地震发生率 ν为常数相对应 ,该模型中地震发生率 ν是随时间呈指数性增加。采用对数似然方法 ,通过使其最大化来确定模型的参数。作者以一个假想的时间序列 ,讨论了非稳态与稳态泊松模型之间的差别 ,并将该模型实际应用于华北地区汾渭地震带和华北平原地震带的中长期预测中     

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of a sediment transport model

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of the non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) model are presented. The NHP model is characterized by a two-parameter cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of sediment displacement. Those two parameters are the temporal and spatial intensity functions, physically representing the inverse of the average rest period and step length of sediment particles, respectively. Difficulty of estimating the parameters has, however, restricted the applications of the NHP model. The approximation techniques are proposed to address such problem. The basic idea of the method is to approximate a model involving stochastic parameters by Taylor series expansion. The expansion preserves certain higher-order terms of interest. Using the experimental (laboratory or field) data, one can determine the model parameters through a system of equations that are simplified by the approximation technique. The parameters so determined are used to predict the cumulative distribution of sediment displacement. The second-order approximation leads to a significant reduction of the CDF error (of the order of 47%) compared to the first-order approximation. Error analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the first- and second-order approximations with respect to the experimental data. The higher-order approximations provide better estimations of the sediment transport and deposition that are critical factors for such environment as spawning gravel-bed.     

Influence of Stochastic Discontinuity Network Parameters on the Formation of Removable Blocks in Rock Slopes

Summary  We study the effects of discontinuity network parameters on the formation of removable wedges in rock slopes. Discontinuities are simulated using the Poisson disk model, and removable wedges are identified using block theory. The formation of removable wedges of different sizes is assumed to follow a Poisson process. Poisson regression and Monte Carlo simulation are then used to identify statistically relevant parameters of the model, and to study the effects that variations in their values have on formation of removable blocks. The sensitivity of the results as a function of the mean orientations of the discontinuity sets forming the blocks is also studied by means of a parametric study. The volumetric intensity of discontinuities in the rock mass is found to have a significant impact on the computed estimates of removable block formation. As predicted by theory, our results indicate that, everything else being equal, the expected rate of formation of removable wedges is proportional to the square of the intensity measure. Estimates are also sensitive to changes in discontinuity size, especially in cases in which discontinuities are smaller than one to two times the height of the slope. The interaction between the mean size of discontinuities and the coefficient of variation of discontinuity sizes is found to be significant as well. Finally, results of our sensitivity analysis suggest that the orientation of discontinuity sets significantly affects the rate of formation of removable blocks in rock slopes. Author’s address: Dr. Rafael Jimenez-Rodriguez, ETS Ing. de Caminos, Canales y Puertos. Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain     

An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia

In order to investigate the seismicity of western Anatolia limited with the coordinates of 36°–40° N, 26°–32° E, Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation, seismic risk and recurrence period have been computed. The data belonging to both the historical period before 1900 (I₀ ≥ 5.0 corresponding to M_S ≥ 4.4) and the instrumental period until the end of 2006 (M_S ≥ 4.0) has been used in the analysis. The study area has been divided into 13 sub-regions due to certain seismotectonic characteristics, plate tectonic models and geology of the region. All the computations have been performed for these sub-regions, separately. According to the results, a and b values in the computed magnitude–frequency relations are in the intervals 3.19±0.17 – 5.15±0.52 and 0.42±0.05 – 0.66±0.07, respectively. The highest b values have been determined for sub-regions 3 and 12 (Demirci-Gediz and Gökova Gulf-Mu?la-Gölhisar). The lowest b values have also been determined for sub-regions 1 and 9 (Bal?kesir and Bodrum-?stanköy). Finally, seismic risk and recurrence period computations from a and b values have shown as expected that sub-regions 1 and 9 which have the lowest b values and the highest risks and the shortest-recurrence periods.     

确定外部扰动重力场的改进直接积分方法

针对Stokes-Pizzetti积分用于外部扰动重力场计算中从空中趋近地面时存在着不连续和积分奇异的问题,对该式进行了改进。改进式引入地面计算点处的重力异常,得到一个从地面到空中统一适用的公式,并且中和了在地面计算点处的奇异性。类似地,改进了的Stokes公式在用于大地水准面计算时积分的奇异性同样起到了改善作用。     

Late Cretaceous subduction initiation and Palaeocene–Eocene slab breakoff magmatism in South-Central Anatolia,Turkey

The Late Cretaceous Alihoca ophiolite in the Inner Tauride suture zone (ITSZ) of South-Central Turkey represents part of a single ophiolitic thrust sheet that originated from the Inner Tauride ocean. The ophiolite contains upper mantle peridotites, cumulate wehrlites, layered-to-isotropic gabbros, and microgabbroic-to-doleritic dikes. An ophiolitic mélange beneath the Alihoca ophiolite includes blocks of limestone, peridotite, dolerite, basalt, and deep-sea sedimentary rocks (radiolarite, chert) in a matrix comprising sheared serpentinite and mudstone. Isotropic gabbro and dolerite dike rocks show enrichment in Sr, K, Rb, Ba, and Th (LILE) and depletion of Ta, Nb, Zr, Ti, and Y (HFSE), indicating an island arc tholeiite (IAT) affinity. Relatively younger dolerite rocks display low TiO₂ (<0.5 wt.%) contents, concave REE profiles with low HREE concentrations, and high LREE values, typical of boninitic affinities. The Alihoca ophiolite, hence, displays an IAT to boninitic geochemical progression in its magmatic evolution, reminiscent of many other Tethyan ophiolites in the region. It represents the remnant of a forearc oceanic crust, which developed during the early stages of subduction within the Inner Tauride ocean. Volcanic, volcano-sedimentary, and sedimentary rocks of the Uluk??la–Çamard? basin north of the ITSZ disconformably overlie the mafic-ultramafic rocks of the Alihoca ophiolite. Pillowed and massive lavas of the latest Cretaceous–Palaeocene Uluk??la Formation have alkaline basalt-to-basaltic andesite compositions, displaying relatively enriched LILE and LREE patterns with negative Nb and Ta anomalies. These geochemical features suggest that magmas of the Uluk??la–Çamard? volcanic rocks formed from partial melting of a metasomatized lithospheric mantle. This melting event was triggered by the influx of asthenospheric heat through a slab breakoff-induced window in the downgoing Tethyan oceanic lithosphere.