福州盆地残留沼泽沉积的137Cs同位素定年与沉积环境演化

对福州盆地鳌峰洲残留沼泽沉积540 cm的FZ1钻孔进行了元素地球化学和137Cs以及加速器碳同位素（AMS 14C）测年。结果表明：钻孔存在2段不同的沉积环境,下部为洪冲积,上部为沼泽沉积,然而2段各自的沉积环境则相当稳定。137Cs测试在沼泽相稳定沉积出现的3个蓄积峰与北半球的放射性年代标尺可以对比。根据蓄积峰年代和插值后获得的钻孔底部年龄约为公元1950年,与钻孔底部的AMS 14C测年基本吻合,该结果表明采用137Cs测年方法定年是可行的。沉积速率研究揭示：20世纪50年代初至60年代中,近代洪冲积在福州盆地断块下沉区沉积速率极快,钻孔下部粉砂质淤泥的沉积速率达到20.9 cm/a;随着闽江下游盆地平原与河流变迁以及心滩的形成,原来的水道快速淤积演变为陆地沼泽环境,沉积速率开始逐步减小：20世纪60―70年代中降为9.9 cm/a,70―80年代中继续下降为7.1 cm/a,80年代中之后降为3.1 cm/a。福州盆地中心区的高沉积速率与全新世断块差异性活动存在着密切关系。     

An improved velocity volume processing method

Velocity volume processing （VVP） retrieval of single Doppler radar is an effective method which can be used to obtain many wind parameters. However, due to the problem of an ill-conditioned matrix arising from the coefficients of equations not being easily resolved, the VVP method has not been applied adequately and effectively in operation. In this paper, an improved scheme, SVVP （step velocity volume processing）, based on the original method, is proposed. The improved algorithm retrieves each group of components of the wind field through a stepwise procedure, which overcomes the problem of an ill-conditioned matrix, which currently limits the application of the VVP method. Variables in a six-parameter model can be retrieved even if the analysis volume is very small. In addition, the source and order of errors which exist in the traditional method are analyzed. The improved method is applied to real cases, which show that it is robust and has the capability to obtain the wind field structure of the local convective system. It is very helpful for studying severe storms.     

基于高频地波雷达观测的大亚湾附近海域余流季节变化特征分析

基于大亚湾附近海域高频地波雷达的长期海流观测资料,利用T_tide工具包进行调和分析得到该海域余流季节变化特征.分析结果显示:大亚湾附近海域余流的变化特征主要呈冬、夏两种形态,其变化过程与季风的变化同步.其中,冬季形态从10月到次年3月,流向为SW向,流速可达30 cm/s以上;夏季形态仅在5—8月间出现,流向为NE向...     

秦皇岛海域海流特征及规模化养殖对其影响的观测研究

秦皇岛海域是辽东湾与渤海中部及渤海湾进行物质和能量交换的重要通道。本文基于海床基观测平台获取的夏秋季海流连续观测资料,运用调和分析和滤波等方法对该海域的海流特征及其对规模化养殖的响应进行了研究。结果表明:秦皇岛海域最显著的潮流是M₂分潮流,其最大流速介于20.0~36.9 cm/s之间,远小于辽东湾东部海域M₂分潮流最大流速;秋季秦皇岛海域余流流速介于0.2~2.5 cm/s之间,整体上较辽东湾东侧海域余流弱,辽东湾底层可能存在逆时针的弱环流系统;夏季秦皇岛海域M₂和K₁分潮流的最大流速均大于秋季;养殖活动对余流影响较大,养殖区中部A7、A8站余流的垂向平均流速比养殖区边缘A6站分别减小76%和18%左右。     

河口区斜压梯度对余水位的累积影响及其机制探讨

余水位（即潮平均水位）是河口区径潮相互作用的典型结果,研究其形成演变机制对探讨河口区的水资源高效开发利用具有重要科学意义。本文基于不同径潮边界条件下的三维斜压水动力数值模拟及切比雪夫机制分解,初步探讨了概化地形条件下斜压梯度对余水位沿程变化的影响。数值模拟结果表明:河口区余水位的沿程变化明显受径流量、潮波振幅、辐聚地形及斜压梯度等因素的共同影响,斜压梯度对余水位的影响是一种累积效应且影响区域集中在回水区,同时其影响强度具有明显的大小潮变化、洪枯季变化。利用数值模型提供的水位及流速场信息,通过切比雪夫分解非线性摩擦项分离出控制余水位变化的3个主要因素,即径流、潮流和径潮相互作用因子,并与斜压梯度产生的余水位进行对比分析,结果表明:回水区域余水位主要以径潮相互作用因子为主导;斜压梯度对余水位影响主要体现在小潮期间,有可能成为影响余水位变化的主控因子。     

鲁海丰海洋牧场流场特征分析

根据海底有缆观测系统连续观测得到的3个半月的海水流矢量资料,利用功率谱分析、调和分析、旋转谱分析和相关分析等方法研究了鲁海丰海洋牧场海域海流的时间变化规律和空间结构特征。主要结论如下:在整个水体厚度上,西北向流占优,呈现出向岸流的特点,且由表及底,西向流减弱,北向流增强;潮流类型为正规半日潮,M2分潮流为主,各层主要分潮流均表现为以逆时针方向旋转为主的往复运动,总体上观测点的日周期波动只由全日潮流引起,不受当地惯性流影响。此外观测点处的流还表现出更高频的波动周期;鲁海丰海洋牧场的表层余流主要由海面风场驱动,同时也受到山东半岛沿岸流的影响。     

Forecasting Gas Consumption Based on a Residual Auto-Regression Model and Kalman Filtering Algorithm

Consumption of clean energy has been increasing in China. Forecasting gas consumption is important to adjusting the energy consumption structure in the future. Based on historical data of gas consumption from 1980 to 2017, this paper presents a weight method of the inverse deviation of fitted value, and a combined forecast based on a residual auto-regression model and Kalman filtering algorithm is used to forecast gas consumption. Our results show that: (1) The combination forecast is of higher precision: the relative errors of the residual auto-regressive model, the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are within the range (-0.08, 0.09), (-0.09, 0.32) and (-0.03, 0.11), respectively. (2) The combination forecast is of greater stability: the variance of relative error of the residual auto-regressive model, the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are 0.002, 0.007 and 0.001, respectively. (3) Provided that other conditions are invariant, the predicted value of gas consumption in 2018 is 241.81×10 ⁹ m ³. Compared to other time-series forecasting methods, this combined model is less restrictive, performs well and the result is more credible.     

The influence of environmental cues on the activity of silver eels (Anguilla dieffenbachii) in Lake Manapouri,New Zealand

Lake Manapouri in the South Island of New Zealand has a significant hydroelectric generation facility, which potentially has a negative impact on the successful emigration of longfin eels (Anguilla dieffenbachii) from the upper Waiau catchment. Consequently, a trap-and-transfer programme has been implemented to allow silver (migratory) eels access to the sea. The present study analysed data on the timing of captures and numbers of silver eels over four seasons, including the influence of possible migration cues. Silver eels were captured over an extended season of seven months (November–May), with peak numbers during December and January. Flow at the lake outflow was found to have a weak relationship with the number of eels caught, as did lake level, but moon phase and rainfall had no significant effect. These results highlight the variability in silver longfin eel behaviour both in terms of timing and response to potential environmental cues.     

长波信号中周期修正项对授时精度的影响

周期修正项是长波授时信号的一个特征量,它通常与长波授时信号的跟踪点有关。在授时过程中,它是影响长波传播路径时延计算的重要因素。讨论了长波定时信号接收端感应电动势周期修正项与发射端电流信号周期修正项的不同,分析了磁天线和电天线对周期修正项的影响,计算了实际传播介质中周期修正项的大小。结果表明:当传播路径上的电参数恒定时,周期修正项与传播距离有关,传播距离越大,感应电动势的周期修正项也越大,并且两者呈线性关系。同时,周期修正项也受等效电导率等因素的影响,在恒定的距离上,等效电导率越小,周期修正项反而越大。授时用户可以利用感应电动势周期修正项的数值计算结果修正传播路径上的时延,有效地提高传播路径时延计算的精度,从而提高授时精度。     

Application of geographically weighted regression model in the estimation of surface air temperature lapse rate

The surface air temperature lapse rate(SATLR)plays a key role in the hydrological,glacial and ecological modeling,the regional downscaling,and the reconstruction of high-resolution surface air temperature.However,how to accurately estimate the SATLR in the regions with complex terrain and climatic condition has been a great challenge for re-searchers.The geographically weighted regression(GWR)model was applied in this paper to estimate the SATLR in China's mainland,and then the assessment and validation for the GWR model were made.The spatial pattern of regression residuals which was identified by Moran's Index indicated that the GWR model was broadly reasonable for the estimation of SATLR.The small mean absolute error(MAE)in all months indicated that the GWR model had a strong predictive ability for the surface air temperature.The comparison with previous studies for the seasonal mean SATLR further evidenced the accuracy of the estimation.Therefore,the GWR method has potential application for estimating the SATLR in a large region with complex terrain and climatic condition.