Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

钻孔岩芯饼状断裂破坏机制

本文首先阐述岩芯饼状断裂及其特征, 进而用断裂力学的理论与方法对岩饼破坏进行了断裂扩张机制的分析, 不但合理地解释了断裂特征及断裂破坏机制, 且以二滩坝址为例, 分析了产生钻孔岩饼的微裂纹条件及应力条件, 为定量地评价坝址地应力状态, 包括其大小及方向提供了一种新的方法。上述不仅具有重要的理论意义, 而且具有重要的工程实际意义。     

Use of microtremor measurement for assessing site effects in Northern Belgium – interpretation of the observed intensity during the MS = 5.0 June 11 1938 earthquake

To provide quantitative information on site effects in the northern part of Belgium, forty-seven H/V microtremor measurements were performed with 5 second seismometers over an area of about 15.000 km². Most of the results show a northward regular increase of the fundamental period in agreement with the augmentation of the Mesozoic and Cainozoic soft sedimentsthickness from a few meters 40 km south of Brussels to 900 m at the Netherlands-Belgium border. The measured resonance frequency values wereconsistent with theoretical computations performed at different sites onthe basis of existing information and shallow seismic experiments. At oneparticular site (Uccle) where borehole data were available, microtremor measurements using an array of four seismological stations with differentapertures allowed to obtain the low frequency part of the Rayleigh wave dispersion curve, extending the range covered by the analysis of surfacewaves artificially generated. The Vs profile derived from the surface waveinversion corroborates the 1 Hz natural frequency of the site. Comparison of these results with the macroseismic information concerning the M_S = 5.0 1938 earthquake which occurred 50 km west of Brussels,confirmed the hypothesis that the geological structure of the Brabant massifis likely to control damage distribution during such an earthquake. Comparisonbetween the intensity map of the 1938 earthquake and the resonance period ofsediments obtained by our microtremor study shows a clear relation betweenthe two parameters. During the 1938 earthquake, site effects played a prominent role due to the dimension of the source whose corner frequency wasabout 1 Hz.     

利用屏幕截取技术制作人降作业炮点环境示意图

介绍利用屏幕截取技术制作人降作业炮点四周环境坐标示意图的方法。     

2-[2-(6-氯苯并噻唑)偶氮]-5-二乙氨基苯甲酸与镍的显色反应

研究了2-[2-(6-氯苯并噻唑)偶氮]-5-二乙氨基苯甲酸(6-Cl-BTAEB)与Ni2+的显色反应。结果表明:在pH4.5～7.6的HAc-NaAc缓冲溶液中及十二烷基硫酸钠存在下,试剂与Ni2+形成稳定的蓝紫色配合物,组成为n(Ni2+)∶n(6-Cl-BTAEB)=1∶2,最大吸收波长650nm,表观摩尔吸光系数为1.59×105L·mol-1·cm-1,Ni2+浓度在0～400μg/L内符合比尔定律。用铝合金和合金钢中的微量镍验证该分析方法,所得结果与推荐值相符,6次测定的RSD<2%。     

内蒙古武川-四子王旗地区地下水中的NO-3污染

三氮对人体的危害已引起人们的关注，NO3^--N是三氮的主体。本文分析了武川一四子王旗地区NO3^-的污染现状及其在水平和垂向上的分布特征和规律，研究了污染原因和过程，提出了相应的防治对策。     

长江中下游地区地下水中Mn元素的背景特征及其形成

该文论述了长江中下游地区地下水锰元素的背景特征及其与地下水的含水介质成分、上覆岩土性质、氧化还原环境、地下水的迳流条件、地下水及土壤酸碱度的关系.研究结果表明,长江中下游地区地下水中Mn元素含量,在区域上分布特点为江汉平原东部区〉长江三角洲南部区〉鄱阳湖区.     

中国国家公园与世界遗产地保护——挑战与战略

About 70% of its land area as mountains and plateaus,China is the largest mountain countryin the world.Thanks to its vast territory (9.6 million km2),outstanding relief and varied climates,China boasts extremely plenty of ecosystems and landscapes.From south to north,it traverses almostall the temporal zones from tropical rainforest in the southernmost to frigid-temperate needle-leavedforest in the northernmost; from east to west,it sees a gradual transition fro humid forest landscape toextremely arid desert landscape; vertical change of landscapes is most striking owing to the existenceof many high mountains (above 6000-7000 m,e.g.,the Himalayas,the Kunlun,the Tianshan,theHengduan,etc.) and plateaus,especially the immense Tibetan Plateau (averagely 4500 m above sealevel).All of this give rise to the richness and diversity of ecosystems and landscape in China.Some ofthe ecosystems are endemic to China,e.g.,alpine desert and alpine steppe in the Tibetan Plateau.As aresult,China bears a great responsibility in the protection of global ecosystems and landscape.