长江中下游夏季高温灾害机理及预测

利用我国1961-2003年夏季（6—8月）高温资料，建立长江中下游地区主要城市强高温及高温过程较完整的时间序列，探讨了该地区主要城市高温气候特征。分析该地区南京、杭州、南昌等城市夏季高温灾害机理，东亚副热带高压是造成长江中下游地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上用均生函数-最佳子回归集构造预测模型，预测夏季月高温出现日数，通过42a高温资料预报检验，有较好的预测效果，值得在业务中应用。     

Integer aperture bootstrapping: a new GNSS ambiguity estimator with controllable fail-rate

In this contribution, we introduce a new bootstrap-based method for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) carrier-phase ambiguity resolution. Integer bootstrapping is known to be one of the simplest methods for integer ambiguity estimation with close-to-optimal performance. Its outcome is easy to compute due to the absence of an integer search, and its performance is close to optimal if the decorrelating Z-transformation of the LAMBDA method is used. Moreover, the bootstrapped estimator is presently the only integer estimator for which an exact and easy-to-compute expression of its fail-rate can be given. A possible disadvantage is, however, that the user has only a limited control over the fail-rate. Once the underlying mathematical model is given, the user has no freedom left in changing the value of the fail-rate. Here, we present an ambiguity estimator for which the user is given additional freedom. For this purpose, use is made of the class of integer aperture estimators as introduced in Teunissen (2003). This class is larger than the class of integer estimators. Integer aperture estimators are of a hybrid nature and can have integer outcomes as well as non-integer outcomes. The new estimator is referred to as integer aperture bootstrapping. This new estimator has all the advantages known from integer bootstrapping with the additional advantage that its fail-rate can be controlled by the user. This is made possible by giving the user the freedom over the aperture of the pull-in region. We also give an exact and easy-to-compute expression for its controllable fail-rate.     

2003年 8月 21-22日辐合气流暴雨天气过程总结

本文综合应用天气图、静止卫星云图、物理量诊断场,分析了 2003年 8月 21～ 22日黑龙江省大范围强降水过程.分析了乌拉尔山阻高、副热带高压和冷暖空气在暴雨天气过程中的作用.得出有预报指示意义的特征.并对日本传真图的降水预报能力进行了检验分析.在暴雨预报中也具有一定的预报意义.     

新疆冰雹天气过程的基本特征

通过对新疆39a冰雹天气资料的普查，得到76次系统性冰雹天气过程和1279次局地冰雹天气过程，局地冰雹天气的发生远远多于系统性雹天气。冰雹天气过程与地形密切相关，主要发生在山区，冰雹天气以1天为主，多发生于夏季，系统性冰雹天气均由中尺度高压造成。     

台风活动对副热带高压位置和强度的影响

利用一个浅水模式，实施了6组时间积分为4－5个模式日的试验，研究了台风对副热带高压中心位置及强度的影响。结果表明：台风和副热带高压的相互作用可以使高压中心位置西移,强度增加。据此讨论了台风活动和西北地区东部干旱之间统计联系的可能机制。     

CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE ONSET OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AS REVEALED BY HIRS-Tb12 AND DROUGHT AND FLOODS IN EASTERN CHINA

As shown in comparison and study of the HIRS-Tb12 data and conventional data, temperature, humidity and vertical motion are structured differently in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which are well depicted with the HIRS-Tb12 data. When high pressures rapidly decrease over the regions of South China Sea and Arabian Sea with the HIRS-Tb12 less than 200 W/m2, monsoons will set off in the South China Sea, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. From a year of significant drought to one of significant floods, the trend of evolution is significantly different in the downdraft areas of the subtropical highs between the two hemispheres.     

Electrical aerosol spectrometer of Tartu University

The electrical aerosol spectrometer (EAS) of the parallel measuring principle at Tartu University is an efficient instrument for rapid measurement of the unstable size spectrum of aerosol particles. The measuring range from 10 nm to 10 μm is achieved by simultaneously using a pair of differential mobility analyzers with two different particle chargers. The particle spectrum is calculated and measurement errors are estimated in real time by using a least-squares method. Experimental calibration ensures reliability of measurement. The instrument is well suited for continuous monitoring of atmospheric aerosol.     

Tests on low‐ductility RC frames under high‐ and low‐frequency excitations

The response of low‐ductility reinforced concrete (RC) frames, designed typically for a non‐seismic region, subjected to two frequencies of base excitations is studied. Five half‐scaled, two‐bay, two‐storey, RC frames, each approximately 5 m wide by 3.3 m high, were subjected to both horizontal and/or vertical base excitations with a frequency of 40 Hz as well as a lower frequency of about 4 Hz (close to the fundamental frequency) using a shake table. The imposed acceleration amplitude ranged from 0.2 to 1.2g. The test results showed that the response characteristics of the structures differed under high‐ and low‐frequency excitations. The frames were able to sustain high‐frequency excitations without damage but were inadequate for low‐frequency excitations, even though the frames exhibited some ductility. Linear‐elastic time‐history analysis can predict reasonably well the structural response under high‐frequency excitations. As the frames were not designed for seismic loads, the reinforcement detailing may not have been adequate, based on the crack pattern observed. The effect of vertical excitation can cause significant additional forces in the columns and moment reversals in the beams. The ‘strong‐column, weak‐beam’ approach for lateral load RC frame design is supported by experimental observations. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of self‐centring hysteretic SDOF systems

The seismic response of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems incorporating flag‐shaped hysteretic structural behaviour, with self‐centring capability, is investigated numerically. For a SDOF system with a given initial period and strength level, the flag‐shaped hysteretic behaviour is fully defined by a post‐yielding stiffness parameter and an energy‐dissipation parameter. A comprehensive parametric study was conducted to determine the influence of these parameters on SDOF structural response, in terms of displacement ductility, absolute acceleration and absorbed energy. This parametric study was conducted using an ensemble of 20 historical earthquake records corresponding to ordinary ground motions having a probability of exceedence of 10% in 50 years, in California. The responses of the flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF systems are compared against the responses of similar bilinear elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF systems. In this study the elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF systems are assigned parameters representative of steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) with post‐Northridge welded beam‐to‐column connections. In turn, the flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF systems are representative of steel MRFs with newly proposed post‐tensioned energy‐dissipating connections. Building structures with initial periods ranging from 0.1 to 2.0s and having various strength levels are considered. It is shown that a flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF system of equal or lesser strength can always be found to match or better the response of an elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF system in terms of displacement ductility and without incurring any residual drift from the seismic event. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical evaluation of the damping‐solvent extraction method in the frequency domain

The damping‐solvent extraction method for the analysis of unbounded visco‐elastic media is evaluated numerically in the frequency domain in order to investigate the influence of the computational parameters—domain size, amount of artificial damping, and mesh density—on the accuracy of results. An analytical estimate of this influence is presented, and specific questions regarding the influence of the parameters on the results are answered using the analytical estimate and numerical results for two classical problems: the rigid strip and rigid disc footings on a visco‐elastic half‐space with constant hysteretic material damping. As the domain size is increased, the results become more accurate only at lower frequencies, but are essentially unaffected at higher frequencies. Choosing the domain size to ensure that the static stiffness is computed accurately leads to an unnecessarily large domain for analysis at higher frequencies. The results improve by increasing artificial damping but at a slower rate as the total (material plus artificial) damping ratio ζ_t gets closer to 0.866. However, the results do not deteriorate significantly for the larger amounts of artificial damping, suggesting that ζ_t≈0.6 is appropriate; a larger value is not likely to influence the accuracy of results. Presented results do not support the earlier suggestion that similar accuracy can be achieved by a large bounded domain with small damping or by a small domain with larger damping. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.