ENSO 循环过程中逐月海温异常的合成分析

文章基于UK和MIT 1990年整编的12年（1968～1977年和1982～1983年）逐月5°×5°经纬网格点的海温（SST）距平资料，对其间发生的4次El Nino事件和3次La Nina事件作了逐月全球SST异常分布的合成分析。合成结果表明:在El Nino事件的形成阶段，赤道中太平洋存在明显的东传暖性低频扰动；而在La Nina事件的形成阶段，南北美沿岸有稳定增强的冷中心向西发展。     

重庆市镇安场变形体与库岸岸勘查治理

对镇安场变形体、库岸特征及其稳定性研究目的是为三峡水库区三期地质灾害勘察与治理提供参考依据。通过对该变形体的工程地质勘察,取得了变形体及滑移带的近期变形特征,确定出变形体的稳定系数。给出变形体在天然状态下、连续高强度暴雨、水库蓄水位达175m及降至145m时荷载受力情况下的一系列参数,并作出稳定性简评。通过对库岸现状的定量勘查,采用对未来坍岸破坏方式的预测,用类比及计算法得出当库水位动、静态发生改变时变形体的变形情况及变形体与库岸防治设计的有关参数。其中浅基础下岩石地基承载力的经验参数为:强风化泥岩300kPa,强风化砂岩500kPa,中等风化泥岩1000kPa,中等风化砂岩2000kPa;基底摩擦系数为:泥岩0.4,砂岩0.5;墙后填土重度20kN/m3。按上述各项参数实施防治措施将取得较好的效果。     

东海超高压榴辉岩中绿帘石、褐帘石、磷灰石和钍石集合体的电子探针成分和化学定年研究

中国大陆超深钻(CCSD)主孔从100米到3000米切穿含柯石英榴辉岩,为系统研究大陆深俯冲过程中含稀土元素副矿物提供了机会。本文报道了该钻孔榴辉岩存在发现的绿帘石、褐帘石、磷灰石和钍石复合颗粒。它们以同心环带结构为特征,从边部向中心依次为绿帘石、褐帘石和磷灰石;钍石既可包裹再磷灰石中,也可见于褐帘石中。电子探针分析显示,褐帘石不仅含有较高的轻稀土元素(LREE2O3=23．36wt％),而且可含有2．6wt％ThO2。根据绿帘石和褐帘石的电子探针高分辨U、Th、Pb成分计算得到绿帘石边部的形成年龄为738±88Ma,该年龄与大别-苏鲁地体榴辉岩的元古代源岩的年龄相当,因此,绿帘石可能为残留相。相反,褐帘石的年龄为220±41Ma,与大别-苏鲁超高压变质年龄相近。因此,褐帘石与磷灰石和钍石一起应该为超高压变质事件的产物。根据绿帘石、褐帘石及其共生的磷灰石和钍石的结构、成分特征和化学定年结果,我们推测绿帘石与可能已完全消耗的独居石很可能为变质副矿物组合的先驱矿物。独居石-绿帘石复合颗粒在榴辉岩相高压／超高压变质过程中反应形成磷灰石+钍石+褐帘石组合。     

陕西强连阴雨天气个例的综合分析

利用T213客观分析资料,对陕西2003年8月24日~9月7日强连阴雨天气过程的综合分析表明,连阴雨发生在欧亚稳定的环流形势下,乌拉尔山阻塞高压的建立和稳定使东亚中纬度纬向环流得以长时间维持。偏北、偏西、偏强的西太平洋副热带高压,不仅使冷空气受阻于秦岭山脉附近,同时其外围的偏南气流也为雨区提供了丰富的水汽,而乌拉尔山阻塞高压的崩溃引导冷空气大举南下,西太平洋副热带高压的东移南退则预示着持续的降水天气的结束。东亚合成环流的垂直结构表明,连阴雨期间秦岭邻近地区始终处于锋区中,并存在低空辐合、高空辐散的垂直结构。水汽条件分析表明连阴雨期间水汽的输送主要在对流层底部。热力学条件分析显示连阴雨期间河套始终为高潜热能区和位势不稳定区,偏南气流对热量的输送与高潜热能的维持有密切的关系,而低层偏东气流的加强促使了潜热能的释放,并导致了秦巴山区强降水天气的产生。     

基于动力统计模型重构的副热带高压中长期预报

基于T106数值预报产品500 hPa位势高度场序列,用EOF方法对位势场序列进行时、空分解,在考虑相邻时段位势场空间模态基本稳定的前提下,引入动力系统重构的思想,以EOF分解的空间模态时间系数序列作为动力统计模型变量,用遗传算法全局搜索和并行计算优势,进行了模型参数的优化反演,建立了EOF分解的时间系数的非线性预报模型。通过模型积分和EOF的时、空重构,实现了副热带高压活动场的中长期预报。试验结果表明,在短期预报(1—5 d)该模型与T106模式的预报效果大致相当;但对于中长期预报(≥5 d),其预报效果优于T106预报产品;特别是10 d以上的预报结果对副热带高压的形态和范围仍然能较为准确地描述。该研究方法对副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了一种新的思路。     

Humid Little Ice Age in arid central Asia documented by Bosten Lake, Xinjiang, China

Short sediment cores retrieved from Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, were used to explore humidity and precipitation variations in arid central Asia during the past millennium. The chronology of the cores was established using 137Cs, 210Pb and AMS 14C dating re- sults. Multi-proxy high-resolution analysis, including pollen ratios of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae (A/C), carbonate content and grain size, indicates that the climate during the past millennium can be divided into three stages: a dry climate between 1000―1500 AD, a humid climate during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (c. 1500―1900 AD), and a warm dry period after 1900 AD. On centennial timescales, the climate change in northwestern China during the past 1000 years is characterized by oscillations between warm-dry and cold-humid climate conditions. All the proxies changed significantly and indi- cate increased precipitation during the LIA, including increased pollen A/C ratios and pollen concen- trations, decreased carbonate content and increased grain size. The humid period during the LIA re- corded by the Bosten Lake sediments is representative of arid central Asia and is supported by nu- merous records from other sites. During the LIA, the water runoff into the Keriya River and Tarim River in the Tarim Basin increased, while the ice accumulation in the Guliya ice core increased. Additionally, the lake levels of the Aral and Caspian Sea also rose, while tree-ring analysis indicates that precipita- tion increased. We hypothesize that both the lower temperature within China and the negative anomalies of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during this period may have contributed to the humid climate within this area during LIA.     

基于抽水试验的土体渗透性耦合响应模型研究

土体中大量降排水的过程实际上是土体中有效应力增长的过程。通过对抽水试验中土体渗透系数的回归分析,建立了渗透系数与有效应力增量之间的耦合响应模型关系,说明降排水过程中土体渗透系数是呈非线性变化的。     

淀山湖太湖形成的古生物证据

通过对湖泊周围钻孔样品的微体古生物分析,根据化石群的生态特征,结合岩性、孢粉、¹⁴C等资料探讨晚更新世中期以来淀山湖、太湖沉积环境的演变过程,并比较其异同。现代湖泊的形成于全新世晚期。     

HY-2A卫星雷达高度计数据的全球统计评价及质量分析

自HY-2A卫星发射以来,针对HY-2A卫星雷达高度计产品的交叉定标、真实性检验及质量评估工作一直在持续开展。本文主要以HY-2A卫星高度计第44周期的IGDR产品数据为例,通过使用全球分布图、二维直方图和每日均值统计的方法完成了与Jason-2IGDR产品的比对验证,同时对主要环境校正参数及地球物理产品的数据质量稳定性进行了分析,结果显示高度计产品数据质量较稳定,此外利用HY-2A卫星升降轨交叉点海面高度差、与Jason-2卫星交叉点海面高度差以及沿轨海平面异常数据分析的方法进行了HY-2A卫星高度计观测系统的性能评估,结果显示,HY-2A卫星海面高度精度约为7.48cm,精度接近Jason-2,能满足海洋应用与科学研究的需要。     

Each fisherman is different: Taking the environmental perception of small-scale fishermen into account to manage marine protected areas

One of the reasons for the failure of some Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is the lack of respect for their boundaries and regulations, which intensifies the need to assess the attitudes of stakeholders affected by MPAs. To this end, it is necessary to know the perception and behavior of resource users in these areas in relation to the management process. This study addressed the perception of different groups of fishermen in three MPAs that allow sustainable use of resources on the Brazilian northeastern coast. The perception analysis was based on four aspects: biodiversity conservation, flexibility and adaptability of fishermen, participation in management and opinions about the MPA. The interviewed fishermen (n=100) were classified into natives or immigrants,≥than 40 years old or <40, predominant use of selective or nonselective fishing gear and part or full time fishermen. The results showed that younger fishermen and the ones who use selective fishing gear presented a more conservation prone perception; nonselective fishermen and part-time fishermen were more flexible and adaptable to changes; and younger fishermen tended to agree more with the establishment of the MPAs. Taking these differences in perceptions among fishermen into account could serve as a basis for improvements in the management and conservation of fishing resources, besides helping predict possible future behavior due to changes in management policies.