预测华北地区年度地震趋势的支持向量机分类方法

以太阳黑子数、地球自转速率变化数据和全球7级以上地震应变释放量作为预测因子,使用支持向量机分类方法建模预测中国华北地区年度地震强度,预测准确率为0.93,表明该方法具有较好的预测效果.     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

The periodic variations of the core drift rate: global and zonal motions (Mitteilung des Zentralinstituts für Physik der Erde,Nr. 1746)

Toroidal zonal motions at the top of the Earth's core were computed from the observed secular variation and investigated with regard to their time dependence. Previously derived results for a pure westward drifting core could be re-examined. Additionally, the well-known 66.7 years period was found to be an oscillation of the zonal velocity field of third degree. With respect to periodic constituents, the total magnetic core-mantle coupling torque according to the zonal motions is comparable with that derived for a pure westward drifting core. Some differences in period lengthes and amplitudes do not remove previously stated differences between the spectra of the magnetic and mechanical torques on principle.     

Earth rotation parameter estimation by GPS observations

The methods of Earth rotation parameter （ERP） estimation based on IGS SINEX file of GPS so- lution are discussed in detail. There are two different ways to estimate ERP： one is the parameter transformation method, and the other is direct adjustment method with restrictive conditions. By comparing the estimated results with independent copyright program to IERS results, the residual systemic error can be found in estimated ERP with GPS observations.     

内核地球自转动力学理论的研究进展(Ⅳ)——内核自转动力学方程

本文是序列文章的第四篇,其内容包括：基于连续介质力学的基本理论,给出了固体外核（SIC）自转的动力学方程,考虑了地球的自引力、液核对内核边界的压力和二阶外部引潮力位对SIC自转的影响,并在O(mε)的量级上给出了其实用的表达式.本文的理论推导更加严密和细致,改正了文献〔1〕在推导过程中的某些错误（例如：（B39）、（B44）和（B59c）式）.本文的工作是对文献〔1〕有关理论的扩展和改进,对进一步研究内核地球自转的动力学理论是非常重要的.     

利用光变曲线估计猎鹰九号火箭末级的旋转状态研究

光度观测是地基观测空间目标的主要手段之一,利用光度信息能够估计空间目标的相关特征信息.为了更好地了解空间目标的旋转状态,选取具有代表性的猎鹰九号火箭末级作为研究对象,由其光变信息研究旋转状态.首先利用云南天文台1.2 m光学望远镜获取猎鹰九号火箭末级的光度数据,再对目标星等进行斜距归一化,得到目标光变信息并分析目标星等...     

An interpretation of the variations of the magnetic core-mantle coupling torques and the core drift rate

The influence of recently computed axial magnetic core-mantle coupling torques on the Earth's rotation was investigated. These torques derived from poloidal geomagnetic field within the mantle and at the core-mantle boundary are retarding torques. An accelerating torque due to the action of unknown parts of the core field was estimated by inverse solution of the equation of the mantle rotation for the periodic variations of the quantities of the magnetic field and the length of day. The variations of the drift rate of the Earth's core were compared with those of the mantle rotation velocity for a force-free Earth. The time constants of the coupling process were estimated and discussed in connection with the magnetic coupling of the mantle with an upper core layer. Der Einfluß kürzlich berechneter axialer Kern-Mantel-Kopplungsmomente auf die Erdrotation wurde untersucht. Diese Lorentz-Drehmomente, abgeleitet vom poloidalen geomagnetischen Feld im Mantel und an der Kern-Mantel-Grenze, sind retardierende Momente. Ein beschleunigendes Drehmoment, das der Wirkung unbekannter Feldanteile zugeordnet wird, wurde durch inverse Lösung der Mantelrotationsgleichung für die periodischen Variationen der Magnetfeldgrößen und der Tageslänge abgeschätzt. Die Variationen der Kerndriftgeschwindigkeit wurden mit denen der Mantelrotationsgeschwindigkeit für eine kräftefreie Erde verglichen. Die Zeitkonstanten des Kopplungsprozesses wurden ermittelt und im Zusammenhang mit der magnetischen Kopplung des Mantels mit einer oberen Kernschicht diskutiert.     

On the “rotational angular momentum” of the oceans and the corresponding polar motion

Periodic polar motions caused by ocean tides are predicted. In the Liouville equations for rotational motion the complete excitation functions for the ocean tides have to be used. This does not depend on the fact that hydrodynamical ocean tide models do not consider the centrifugal acceleration. The observable polar motion of the Celestial Ephemeris Pole CEP (more exactly: the terrestrial location of the CEP) is tabulated for the ten ocean tides M₂, S₂, N₂, K₁, O₁, P₁, M f, M f′, M m, Ssa. Typical amplitudes for the largest ocean tides are 0.4 milliarcseconds. This is within the reach of geodetic VLBI and SLR observations.     

双涡互旋的数值模拟试验

本文应用准地转正压无辐散模式对双涡的相互作用进行了数值模拟试验。试验结果表明：（1）只考虑相对涡度平流的情况下双涡以互旋为主，而且随着初始间距的缩小，互旋越来越明显。双涡的相互作用与它们的初始间距以及它们的强度和结构有密切的关系。（2）双涡的移动加速和减速都是出现在它们移动方向改变的时刻，当移动方向向逆时针方向变化时移速减慢，否则加快。     

震前卫星热红外环形应力场特征

本文包括两部分内容:①描述了1996年2月3日云南丽江Ms7.0级地震,震前几天的卫星热红外图像呈现圆形,它的NNW、NW、SN、及NE向的热旋扭面往S收敛。该地震地表破裂由一系列张扭性裂缝组成,呈左旋左列,水平位错不明显,垂直断距数厘米。垂直力对构造变动的作用较为明显;而丽江地震震源机制解破裂面II的走向NNE6o,倾向W,倾角44o,P轴方位为NNE3o、仰角75o,近于直立,综合热旋扭面展布、地震地表破裂特征及震源机制解,得出该旋扭椭圆为地幔外侧右旋上涌所造成;②菲律宾萨马岛Ms7.0～7.5强震群及青海共和Ms7.0地震前热应力环椭圆的推进路径。根据这一特征得出交变潮汐力的地球动力学解释。卫星热红外图像震前应力热场的方法是临震预测地震的有效方法,卫星热红外技术辅以震源机制解和地表破裂带力学分析是研究地球动力学有力工具。地球自转速度变化,交变潮汐力和地幔旋扭上涌力是地球动力学的主因。