通用洪水预报模型库设计建设研究

在介绍洪水预报模型库的基本概念和性质的基础上，分析了各类洪水预报模型的输入、输出数据类型，规定了各类数据文件格式，设计了洪水预报模型库的通用数据接口，并在中国洪水预报系统中实现了通用洪水预报模型库的建设。     

基于拉格朗日插值法修正地形影响的分布式降水模型研究

降水量一直是进行水文分析计算的输入项，对其分布状况的模拟直接影响水文分析成果精度。降水中心位置及其中心降水量对暴雨分析尤为重要，而目前尚未见对降水中心位置方面的模型研究。在对目前国内外降水模型分析的基础上，根据天气系统降水如不受地形影响其降水量等值线在平面上的分布近似为一组同心椭圆这一原理，建立了一种能够模拟次降水过程的降水中心位置及其中心降水量的新型分布式降水数学模型，并对其进行地形影响因素修正。由于模型建立原理简单，易于实现对流域未设站研究点的实时降水量估计，同时由于模型能够指明降水中心位置及其中心降水量，因此在流域暴雨分析和洪水预报中具有实用价值。模型经实践检验具有较高精度。     

面雨量不均对GIUH非线性改正探讨

地貌单位线(GIUH)基于流域地貌特征和概率方法，在我国许多地区得到广泛应用。针对面雨量分布不均问题，通过分析初始概率的变化，考虑GIUH的非线性改正，并用实际资料进行了验证。     

鄱阳湖区平垸行洪、退田还湖后的防洪减灾形势分析

根据鄱阳湖区“退田还湖”的实际资料，采用洪水模拟的方法分析计算出“退田还湖”降低湖口站洪水位和减少1954年洪水超额分洪量，分析了“退田还湖”后鄱阳湖区的防洪减灾形势，提出应继续加强对鄱阳湖区防洪工程的建设，探讨了“退田还湖”后江湖洪水关系的变化趋势。     

The role of the 1999 Chamoli earthquake in the formation of ground cracks

The moderate magnitude Chamoli earthquake that occurred in the Garhwal Higher Himalaya, in the early hours of March 29, 1999, caused intense damage to the ground and mountain slopes of the Alaknanda–Mandakini river valley and adjoining region. A systematic survey of this induced damage was conducted immediately after the earthquake occurred. Prominent shallow cracks of significant length, negligible width and indeterminate vertical extent, conspicuously tensile in nature, with little or no slip across the crack planes, were observed in the ground at several places along the surveyed route. These cracks had formed in the dynamic phase of the Chamoli earthquake process that is in the period of time during which the earthquake-generated seismic waves were passing through the geographic region of interest. However, we use the theory of earthquake-induced static (or long time) stress changes to visualize such cracks at some selected sites where ground damage was relatively more intense and varied to suggest lower bound estimates of the dynamic stress contributions of the main shock for their formation.Based on the results of our analysis we conclude that, just prior to the earthquake occurrence, under the influence of the local ambient stress field, the ground at these sites was already near failure in tension. To this, in its dynamic phase, the Chamoli earthquake induced stress perturbations, having, across the planes of the cracks, (i) shear components which were nearly equal and opposite to similar components of the ambient stress field and (ii) normal (tensile) components, necessary for triggering tensile failure of the ground. The σ₃ (or minimum principal stress) component of the resultant perturbed failure stress field thus became sufficiently tensile while the transverse stresses became sufficiently insignificant. This facilitated formation of major tensile cracks in the ground there. Our static estimates of the tensile stress changes at the different sites are, in essence, estimates of the minimal triggering stress perturbations that was provided by the Chamoli earthquake in the dynamic state for the formation of the tensile cracks there.     

Preliminary study on the occurrence of geothermal systems in the tectonic compressional regions: an example from the Derman geothermal field in the Biga Peninsula, Turkey

There are numerous hot springs with temperatures ranging from 30 to 100 °C in Biga peninsula and they occur throughout the peninsula. The result of this study shows that the region is under a tectonic compressional regime. The investigation of the faults and fractures in the region indicates that the region has been affected first by N–S and then E–W compression since the Middle Miocene. Opening fractures and antithetic and synthetic faults due to the compressional movements provide paths for the deep circulation of water. In addition, the tectonic movements, granitic intrusion and volcanic activity have also played important roles as heat sources for the geothermal systems.     

Bio-climatic imprints on a Holocene loess palaeosol from China

Micromorphology, heavy minerals, pollen and soil properties were examined in a typical Holocene loess profile in the north of the Loess Plateau, consisting of a palaeosol (locally known as the Ansai palaeosol) underlain by the Malan loess and overlain by modern loess. The palaeosol consists of an upper humus-rich (AB) horizon over a clay-rich (Bt) horizon. The humus-rich horizon is intensely weathered, contains precipitated calcitic material derived from the overlying modern loess, and has both high pollen content and diversity. Clay coatings in the clay-rich horizon indicate formation by eluviation–illuviation of clay. Pedogenetic characteristics and pollen analysis imply that the vegetation during the time of most intensive soil development is likely to have been a warm-temperate forest. A complex interpretation of the loess–palaeosol sequence recognizes several development stages. The phase of soil development, maximum and minimum limiting ages for which are ca. 8800 and 4400 ¹⁴C years BP, involved continuing but reduced loess deposition, and successive Holocene bio-climatic environment overprinted new features on the palaeosol.     

P–T–fO2 controls on a partly inverse chromite-bearing ultramafic intrusive: an evaluation from the Sukinda Massif, India

The chromites from the alpine type ultramafic intrusive of Sukinda, India, display a typical partly inverse spinel form and occur in two distinct zones: Brown Ore Zone (BOZ) and Grey Ore Zone (GOZ). The host ultramafites are mostly altered and are represented by the serpentinite, tremolite-talc(chlorite) schist, talc-serpentine schist and chlorite rock. The less altered variants are dunite, harzburgite and websterite. A dyke of orthopyroxenite runs through the main ultramafic body.The composition of olivine (Fo₉₂), orthopyroxene (En_92–89) and Al₂O₃ contents of the parental liquid (10.40–11.45%) determined from chromites, suggest that the parent melt is of boninitic affinity. The chemical plot of TiO₂ content against cr# of chromites corroborates a boninitic parental melt. The Fe–Mg partitioning in olivine and chromite depicts the temperature for chromitites as 1200 °C. A compositional plot of mg# and cr# suggests crystallization at high pressure conditions, corresponding to the kimberlite xenolith field. From the P–T diagram of pyrolite melting and mineral assemblage, the pressure of crystallization is stipulated to be ≥1.2 GPa. The f_O2 values estimated from Fe³⁺/Cr+Al+Fe³⁺ ratios range from 10^−8.3 to 10^−9.3 for the GOZ and 10^−7.1 to 10^−7.3 for the BOZ. The f_O2 values together with the pressure range suggest crystallization at upper mantle conditions. The heterogeneity in chemical composition and f_O2 conditions for the GOZ and BOZ could be linked to heterogeneity in the upper mantle.     

A Physical and Numerical Investigation on the Stability of Shallow Tunnels in Strain Softening Media

Summary The behaviour up to failure of shallow underground openings is discussed on the basis of some laboratory, small-scale model tests and of finite element simulation. The experimental results are first illustrated. They were obtained from two-dimensional (plane strain) and three-dimensional tunnel models tested under standard gravity conditions. Then, the phenomenon of strain localisation that characterizes the medium surrounding the model tunnels is discussed, recalling two alternative approaches for its numerical interpretation. On this basis, a finite element procedure for strain softening analyses is outlined and applied to the simulation of the tests in both two- and three-dimensional conditions. The comparison between experimental and numerical results leads to some conclusions on the influence of strain localisation on the overall behaviour of shallow tunnels and on the stability of their headings.