The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Observations of particle movement in a monitoring well using the colloidal borescope

The colloidal borescope consists of a set of lenses and miniature video cameras capable of observing natural particles in monitoring wells. Based on field observations of these particles, it appears possible to measure in situ groundwater velocity in a well bore. Field observations have shown that directional measurements using the colloidal borescope are generally in good agreement with expected flow directions. However, the magnitude of flow velocity is higher compared with values based on conventional test methods. High relative flow velocities, even after correction factors have been applied to compensate for well bore effects, are believed to be due to preferential flow zones in the surrounding aquifer. Low flow zones exhibit swirling multidirectional flow that does not allow for a linear velocity measurement. Consequently, groundwater flow velocities measured by the colloidal borescope in heterogeneous aquifers will be biased toward the maximum velocity values present in the aquifer. A series of laboratory experiments was conducted to assess the reliability of the instrument. Based on this work, a seepage velocity correction factor ( ) of 1–4 was found for quantifying groundwater seepage velocity in the adjacent aquifer from observations in a well bore. Laboratory measurements also indicate that preferential flow in the surrounding aquifer dominates flow in the well. Results of this work suggest the possibility of quantifying higher-flow velocities associated with preferential flow zones in the subsurface.     

Predisposition to Induced Seismicity in Some Czech Coal Mines

—Mining-induced seismicity associated with longwall face operations in the Ostrava- Karviná coal mines, Czech Republic, has been investigated in order to establish the conditions leading to a focal zone generation. The study, based on macroseismic and instrumental observations, proved that seismicity is influenced by natural as well as mining conditions. The first group includes the influence of faults, washouts and red beds, while the second one is represented by shaft and/or crosscut safety pillars and various types of remnant pillars. All the cases discussed show that many focal zones are generated in overstressed strata as a consequence of interaction of natural conditions and/or old workings with the active coal face. Received June 18, 1996, accepted March 10, 1997     

Time-dependent, coupled, Ekman boundary layer solutions incorporating Stokes drift

Recent technological advances in current measuring devices has resulted in a large observational database related to wind-driven motions in the upper ocean mixed layer. This has served to highlight the fact that transient motions make up a substantial contribution of the resulting Ekman currents. At the same time, certain discrepancies have emerged between the observed angular deflections of the steady-state currents from the surface wind stress, both at the surface and at sub-surface depths, which cannot be reconciled using the classical Ekman model. This paper seeks to tackle these two issues.First a general analytical method is presented for solving the time dependent horizontal momentum Ekman equations. Analysis of the unsteady terms that arise from simple special cases shows how the evolution proceeds through three stages. At early times, the Coriolis acceleration is insignificant, and the current is unidirectional and deepens through downward diffusion of momentum. Later Coriolis acceleration deflects the current vectors in the upper layers, whilst downward diffusion of momentum continues to deepen the layer. Finally, once diffusion has penetrated down to the depth of the steady-state current, then the transients decay on the inertial or diffusive timescale, depending upon the boundary conditions of the particular problem.In the second half of the paper, a new steady-state model is developed that includes the effects of wind-generated waves, through the action of their Stokes drift on the planetary vorticity. Comparisons between observations and the theoretical predictions, demonstrate that inclusion of the Stokes drift is the key to reconciling the discrepancies in the angular deflections of the steady-state currents. This leads to the conclusion that Ekman layer currents are significantly influenced by the surface waves.     

Crystal morphologies in pillow basalts: implications for mid-ocean ridge processes

We present the results of a detailed petrological study of a sparsely phyric basalt (MAPCO CH98-DR11) dredged along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (30°41′N). The sample contains microphenocrysts of olivine that display four different rapid-growth morphologies. Comparison of these morphologies with those obtained in dynamic crystallization experiments allows us to constrain the thermal history of the sample. The dendritic morphology (swallowtail, chain and lattice olivine) is directly related to the final quenching during magma–seawater interaction. In contrast, the three other morphologies, namely the complex polyhedral crystal, the closed hopper and the complex swallowtail morphology result from several cycles of cooling–heating (corresponding to a maximum degree of undercooling of 20–25°C) during crystal growth. These thermal variations occurred before eruption and are interpreted to be the result of turbulent convection in a small magmatic body beneath the ridge. The results suggest that the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is underlain by a mush zone that releases batches of liquid during tectonic segregation. Aphyric basalts are emitted during eruptions controlled by the tectonic activity, whereas phyric basalts correspond to small fractions of magma from the mush zone mobilized by reinjections of primitive magmas.     

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.     

Interactive behavior of soil–pile-superstructure system in transient state to liquefaction by means of large shake table tests

Shaking table tests were conducted by means of a large-scale laminar box with 4 m in length, 2 m in width and 2 m in height in order to investigate behavior of a soil-pile-superstructure system in liquefiable ground. A model two-storey structure, supported by a pile group, was set in a saturated sand deposit, and subjected to a sinusoidal base motion with increasing amplitude. Discussions are focused on the transient behavior until soil liquefaction occurs. Main interests are characteristics of springs used in a sway-rocking model and a multi-freedom lumped mass (MFLM) model that are frequently used in soil–pile interaction analysis. The spring constant in the sway-rocking model is represented by restoring force characteristics at the pile head, and that in the MFLM system is represented by an interaction spring connecting the pile to the free field. The transient state prior to soil liquefaction is shown to be important in the design of a pile because dynamic earth pressure shows peak response in this state. The reduction of the stiffness due to excess porewater generation and strain dependent nonlinear behavior is evaluated.     

Ambiguous Moment Tensors and Radiation Patterns in Anisotropic Media with Applications to the Modeling of Earthquake Mechanisms in W-Bohemia

Anisotropic material properties are usually neglected during inversions for source parameters of earthquakes. In general anisotropic media, however, moment tensors for pure-shear sources can exhibit significant non-double-couple components. Such effects may be erroneously interpreted as an indication for volumetric changes at the source. Here we investigate effects of anisotropy on seismic moment tensors and radiation patterns for pure-shear and tensile-type sources. Anisotropy can significantly influence the interpretation of the source mechanisms. For example, the orientation of the slip within the fault plane may affect the total seismic moment. Also, moment tensors due to pure-shear and tensile faulting can have similar characteristics depending on the orientation of the elastic tensor. Furthermore, the tensile nature of an earthquake can be obscured by near-source anisotropic properties. As an application, we consider effects of inhomogeneous anisotropic properties on the seismic moment tensor and the radiation patterns of a selected type of micro-earthquakes observed in W-Bohemia. The combined effects of near-source and along-path anisotropy cause characteristic amplitude distortions of the P, S1 and S2 waves. However, the modeling suggests that neither homogeneous nor inhomogeneous anisotropic properties alone can explain the observed large non-double-couple components.The results also indicate that a correct analysis of the source mechanism, in principle, is achievable by application of anisotropic moment tensor inversion.     

Estimating the seismic displacement of friction pendulum isolators based on non‐linear response history analysis

A procedure for developing equations that estimate the isolator displacement due to strong ground motion is applied to buildings isolated with the friction pendulum system. The resulting design equations, based on rigorous non‐linear analysis, offer an alternative to the iterative equivalent‐linear methods used by current U.S. building codes. The governing equations of the system are reduced to a form such that the median normalized displacement of the system due to an ensemble of ground motions is found to depend on only the isolation period—a function of the curvature of the isolator—and the friction force at incipient slip normalized by peak ground velocity. The normalization is effective in minimizing the dispersion of the normalized displacement for an ensemble of ground motions, implying that the median normalized displacement is a reliable estimate of response. The design equations reflect the significant (20 to 38%) increase in displacement when the excitation includes two lateral components of ground motion instead of just one component. Equivalent‐linear methods are shown to underestimate by up to 30% the exact median displacement determined by non‐linear response history analysis for one component of ground motion, and building codes include at most a 4.4% increase for a second component. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of a cable‐stayed bridge deck under multi‐component non‐stationary random ground motion

A Markov method of analysis is presented for obtaining the seismic response of cable‐stayed bridges to non‐stationary random ground motion. A uniformly modulated non‐stationary model of the random ground motion is assumed which is specified by the evolutionary r.m.s. ground acceleration. Both vertical and horizontal components of the motion are considered to act simultaneously at the bridge supports. The analysis duly takes into account the angle of incidence of the earthquake, the spatial correlation of ground motion and the quasi‐static excitation. A cable‐stayed bridge is analysed under a set of parametric variations in order to study the non‐stationary response of the bridge. The results of the numerical study indicate that (i) frequency domain spectral analysis with peak r.m.s. acceleration as input could provide more r.m.s. response than the peak r.m.s. response obtained by the non‐stationary analysis; (ii) the longitudinal component of the ground motion significantly influences the vertical vibration of the bridge; and (iii) the angle of incidence of the earthquake has considerable influence on the deck response. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.