Petroleum geological dynamics of Lower Paleozoic in the Ordos Basin, northwest China

Taking the hydrocarbon source rocks of Ordovician, Lower Paleozoic in the Ordos Basin as the main research object, the characteristics of petroleum geological dynamics about geohistory, geothermal history, hydrocarbon generation history and hydrocarbon expulsion history were studied by using the methods of basin numerical modeling dynamically and pool-forming dynamics. It is shown that the Ordovician strata had entirely undergone five stages of initial deposition, uplift and erosion, rapid subsidence, alternating uplift and subsidence, and differential uplift and erosion; that under the background of lower heat flow on the whole, the paleoheat flow of Ordovician strata in the basin could be divided into two large stages of relatively high heat flow values period before Cretaceous deposition and relatively low ones after it; that the thermal evolution of organic matters in the hydrocarbon source rocks of Ordovician had entered into high mature-postmature stage on the whole and the intensity of gas generated was greater than that of oil generated, the hydrocarbon being mainly natural gas; and that the curves of the intensity of oil and gas expulsion at each time unit showed the feature of multi-peak-type, the accumulative intensity of gas expulsion was greater than that of oil expulsion. Thus natural gas exploration potential is good.     

滑坡灾害预报的非线性动力学方法

基于现代反演理论,建立了滑坡灾害预测的非线性动力学模型,给出了可预报时间尺度的确定方法及稳定性判断准则。通过实例分析表明,非线性动力学分析方法是行之有效的。     

基于水环境承载力的沁河流域系统优化调控

基于水环境承载力核算模型,提出流域系统优化调控方法,并应用于沁河流域。通过承载力核算模型计算出2015年和2020年流域水环境承载力,当系统动力学预测的2015年和2020年经济发展规模高于承载力时,通过约束条件中工业企业排放浓度、城镇生活污水收集率、水资源利用率、尾水回用率等4项调控指标进行敏感度分析,最终确定最优的经济发展。结果表明:沁河流域应该优先调控城镇生活污水收集率;2015年,执行工业污水排放二级标准,收集率须达到71.4%以上,优化后的经济规模阈值为475.6亿元;2020年,执行工业一级标准,城镇生活污水收集率须为78.4%以上,相应地经济规模阈值为816.0亿元。     

Hog Daddy and the Walls of Steel: Catch Shares and Ecosystem Change in the New England Groundfishery

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration implemented market-based fishery management in the New England groundfishery as catch shares, controlling aggregate harvests through tradable annual catch quotas allocated to fishing groups called sectors. Policy supporters assert that resulting markets raise conservation incentives. In compliance with the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, species assessments permit catch shares to replace more spatially and temporally specific constraints on fishing gear, time, areas, and daily harvest limits. Qualitative evidence from field interviews and participant observation questions the efficacy of catch shares. Fishing industry members observe that increased presence of large trawl vessels in previously protected areas damages fish subpopulations and benthic habitat. Regulatory bioeconomic models fail to consider these lay observations. The consequent inability of quota markets to recognize the materiality of human–environment relationships at the spatiotemporal scales of fishing activity, and to internalize associated externalities, may have devastating consequences for the fishery.     

中国城市用地与人口规模分布时空动态比较——以环渤海地区为例

复合1992-2012年DMSP/OLS稳定夜间灯光等多源遥感数据和统计数据,运用多种城市规模分布理论方法,对城市用地与人口规模分布时空演变特征进行系统比较。结果表明：环渤海地区城市用地规模增长速度明显快于城市人口规模增长速度,城市人口规模分布比城市用地规模分布更为均衡;城市用地规模呈首位型分布但首位优势在减弱,城市人口规模呈位次型分布但首位优势在增强;位序迅速上升的城市主要位于山东省和河北省,位序显著下降的城市主要位于辽宁省。环渤海地区城市规模空间分布呈显著的区域差异和空间极化特征,且城市用地规模分布空间特征比城市人口规模分布更为突出。研究结论可为优化区域城市空间开发格局、促进人地系统可持续发展提供参考。     

Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: A spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors

This article develops a spatial analysis applied to examine the main driving forces of land-cover and land-use (LCLU) change in a Mediterranean region. Three different tools have been used in order to differentiate LCLU changes, driving forces and landscape dynamics. LCLU changes have been quantified with remote sensing techniques, driving forces have been analysed with multiple logistic regressions combining biophysical and human variables, whereas landscape dynamics have been quantified using different metrics. Results show the intensification of subsidised herbaceous crops on the coastal agricultural plain, the abandonment of olive trees and vineyards in the transitional area and forest restoration in the mountainous subregion.     

1999年与2006年间夏季长江冲淡水变化动力因素的初步分析

根据径流量,1999年和2006年夏季的长江分别处于显著洪季和旱季.此期间的月平均风向也有显著区别.根据同期的海洋现场观测:相对1999年8月,2006年同期的长江口以东、以南毗邻水域表层盐度显著较高,而在长江口东北部海域则相对偏低;长江口附近海域的底层盐度有所偏高,但在浙江中南部沿海底层盐度则相对偏低.利用Regional Ocean Modelling Systems数值模式,对1999年和2006年实际的径流量、风场和黑潮及其分支变化等3个因素对长江冲淡水扩展的影响进行了一系列模拟试验和对比.对比试验表明:相对1999年8月,2006年夏季长江流量大幅度减小是长江口毗邻海域表层盐度升高的主要原因;风场是导致长江冲淡水相对偏北,并使长江口北部出现表层盐度负异常的主要因素;黑潮及其分支在东海北部入侵相对增强、在东海南部入侵相对减弱,使长江口南部表层盐度正异常海域扩大,并促使长江淡水向江口北部扩散增强、而向东部扩散减弱.长江口毗邻海域环流和水团的变化可能对夏季低氧区位置变化产生一定影响.     

大河三角洲河口海岸演化机理模型研究:(II)模型构建与实证

本文以z坐标下的三维斜压海洋动力学数值模式为基本模式原型 ,在整理渤海基本数据并诊断计算风生环流和热盐环流作为背景环流场基础上 ,初步建立了渤海海域动力环境数值模式。模式采用了经校正的Bagnold型方程来计算渤海底移质沉积物输运 ,悬移质计算则是取二维深度平均悬移质输运方程和河床变形方程 ,计算含沙量分布以及由悬移物引起的冲淤厚度。利用这种方法建立的沉积物输运模式 ,定量模拟了渤海沿岸和海底的沉积物输运方向和冲淤分布。模拟结果与通过多年实测水深估算获得的渤海海底沉积物的冲淤变化分布相比较 ,两者之间在基本结论上是比较一致的     

Response of Nereis diversicolor population (Polychaeta,Nereididae) to the pollution impact – Authie and Seine estuaries (France)

A survey within the French National Programme of Ecotoxicology was carried out in 2002, 2003 and 2004 to study the response of Nereis diversicolor populations (Polychaeta, Nereididae) to the impact of pollution in the Authie estuary (non-contaminated site) and in the Seine estuary (contaminated site). In the period studied, the density varied from 672 ind. m⁻² to 3584 ind. m⁻² in the Authie estuary and from 80 ind. m⁻² to 920 ind. m⁻² in the Seine estuary. Biomass varied from 3.94 g m⁻² (dry weight) in February 2004 to 38.0 g m⁻² in August 2003 in the Authie estuary and from 3.4 g m⁻² in February 2002 to 0.6 g m⁻² in February 2004 in the Seine estuary. Density and biomass of the populations of N. diversicolor were consistently lower in the Seine estuary than in the Authie estuary. Size frequency histograms permit the analysis of the cohorts as well as the elaboration of the growth curves. For the individuals from the Authie estuary, the relation between dry weight (DW) and length L3 (prostomium, peristomium and chaetiger 1) was DW = 4.2205 L3^2.9832. For those from the Seine estuary, the relation between dry weight and L3 was DW = 0.4697e^1.7209L3. The individuals of N. diversicolor should belong to eight cohorts in Authie estuary (two cohorts each year) instead of six cohorts for those from the Seine estuary. These differences can be attributed to the effect of pollution on the population of N. diversicolor.     

Formation of terrestrial planets in a dissipating gas disk with Jupiter and Saturn

We have performed N-body simulations on final accretion stage of terrestrial planets, including the eccentricity and inclination damping effect due to tidal interaction with a gas disk. We investigated the dependence on a depletion time scale of the disk, and the effect of secular perturbations by Jupiter and Saturn. In the final stage, terrestrial planets are formed through coagulation of protoplanets of about the size of Mars. They would collide and grow in a decaying gas disk. Kominami and Ida [Icarus 157 (2002) 43-56] showed that it is plausible that Earth-sized, low-eccentricity planets are formed in a mostly depleted gas disk. In this paper, we investigate the formation of planets in a decaying gas disk with various depletion time scales, assuming disk surface density of gas component decays exponentially with time scale of τ_gas. Fifteen protoplanets with are initially distributed in the terrestrial planet regions. We found that Earth-sized planets with low eccentricities are formed, independent of initial gas surface density, when the condition (τ_cross+τ_growth)/2?τ_gas?τ_cross is satisfied, where τ_cross is the time scale for initial protoplanets to start orbit crossing in a gas-free case and τ_growth is the time scale for Earth-sized planets to accrete during the orbit crossing stage. In the cases satisfying the above condition, the final masses and eccentricities of the largest planets are consistent with those of Earth and Venus. However, four or five protoplanets with the initial mass remain. In the final stage of terrestrial planetary formation, it is likely that Jupiter and Saturn have already been formed. When Jupiter and Saturn are included, their secular perturbations pump up eccentricities of protoplanets and tend to reduce the number of final planets in the terrestrial planet regions. However, we found that the reduction is not significant. The perturbations also shorten τ_cross. If the eccentricities of Jupiter and Saturn are comparable to or larger than present values (∼0.05), τ_cross become too short to satisfy the above condition. As a result, eccentricities of the planets cannot be damped to the observed value of Earth and Venus. Hence, for the formation of terrestrial planets, it is preferable that the secular perturbations from Jupiter and Saturn do not have significant effect upon the evolution. Such situation may be reproduced by Jupiter and Saturn not being fully grown, or their eccentricities being smaller than the present values during the terrestrial planets' formation. However, in such cases, we need some other mechanism to eliminate the problem that numerous Mars-sized planets remain uncollided.