Attribution of Persistent Precipitation in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin during February 2019

In February 2019, a month-long persistent precipitation event occurred in the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The geopotential height field that affected the duration of this frontal rainfall was divided into a high-latitude part and a low-latitude part for analysis. In the high-latitude part, a two-wave structure led to quasi-stationary circulation, and the change of both the blocking high pressure and Arctic Oscillation phase caused cold air to invade South China continuously and changed the frontal position. In mid-to-low latitudes, the persistent precipitation showed quasi-biweekly oscillation characteristics. The so-called “subtropical high–precipitation–anticyclone” (SHPA) feedback mechanism blocked the circulation systems in the mid-to-low latitudes and provided a continuous supply of water vapor for precipitation. As for the effect of sea surface temperature, the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone stimulated by El Ni?o strengthened the intensity of the southerly wind and provided support for the redevelopment of the anticyclone system in the SHPA feedback mechanism. The sea surface temperature anomaly in the South China Sea provided sensible heating for precipitation, and convergent rising airflow was conducive to the occurrence of precipitation. Additionally, the SHPA mechanism provides a reliable basis for the prediction of persistent precipitation in winter in the mid-to-low latitudes.     

2018年7月15—17日北京极端强降水过程三类对流风暴及其强降水特征分析

2018年7月15—17日,北京遭遇当年入汛以来最强降水过程。该过程具有持续时间长、累计雨量大、局地雨强强等特点。针对小时降水量阶段性减弱的特征,对该过程不同阶段三类对流风暴及其强降水特点进行了对比分析。结果表明： 16日凌晨副热带高压边缘暖区强降水主要由低质心型对流风暴造成,该时段暖湿层结深厚,垂直风切变较弱;对流系统具有类似热带强降水型风暴特征,加之“列车效应”影响,导致北京密云出现极端强降水;高质心型对流风暴出现在16日至17日凌晨,受高空槽和副热带高压共同影响,中层有干空气侵入,整层垂直风切变较强;对流系统存在悬垂结构特征,但局地性强、移速快,其造成的最大降水量要弱于低质心型对流风暴;混合型对流风暴对应17日高空槽过境的强降水,该时段能量和水汽条件较前期明显减弱;对流风暴的强度和降水量级在三类风暴中最弱。不同类型对流风暴对应的环境条件、结构特征及其移动传播特点决定了该过程不同阶段的降水强度和量级。     

基于Voronoi图的强降水过程空间非均匀性定量表征方法

利用Voronoi\\Delaunay图模型影响范围和局部动态的特性,提出一种基于动态边界定量提取强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征的新方法,根据1959—2002年中国740站逐日降水资料,构建5日、10日两种时间尺度区域持续性年极端强降水过程序列,用以检验该方法的应用效果,并应用该方法分析了5日(10日)区域持续性年极端强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征及其演变规律。结果表明：与传统的数量统计方法和区域插值方法相比,该方法在强降水空间分布中心、过程内不同强度降水覆盖区域、降水集中区等的定量度量方面具有更高的分辨力和较好实际应用价值;气候趋势分析中在1959—2002年间,5日区域持续性年极端强降水过程出现日期有明显提前趋势。     

The Nippon/Norway Svalbard Meteor Radar: First results of small-scale structure observations

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Sputtering and high altitude meteors

Conventional ablation theory assumes that a meteoroid undergoes intensive heating during atmospheric flight and surface atoms are liberated through thermal processes. Our research has indicated that physical sputtering could play a significant role in meteoroid mass loss. Using a 4th order Runge-Kutta numerical integration technique, we tabulated the mass loss due to the two ablation mechanisms and computed the fraction of total mass lost due to sputtering. We modeled cometary structure meteoroids with masses ranging from 10⁻¹³ to 10⁻³ kg and velocities ranging from 11.2 to 71 km s⁻¹. Our results indicate that a significant fraction of the mass loss for small, fast meteors is due to sputtering, particularly in the early portion of the light curve. In the past 6 years evidence has emerged for meteor luminosity at heights greater than can be explained by conventional ablation theory. We have applied our sputtering model and find excellent agreement with these observations, and therefore suggest that sputtered material accounts for the new type of radiation found at great heights.     

Orbital Elements of 2004 Perseid Meteoroids Perturbed by Jupiter

Jupiter and Saturn produce important gravitational impulses on meteoroids released by comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. The meteoroids from this comet once released follow retrograde orbits that during their periodic approaches to these planets (within 1.6 and 0.9 A.U., respectively) are impulsed gaining orbital energy. This perturbation effect is translated into a net inward shift in the node of the perturbed meteoroids. Such geometry with Jupiter occurred in 2004 over a meteoroid trail ejected by this comet during the 1862 A.D. return of the comet to perihelion. In order to study the predicted outburst produced by one-revolution meteoroids, the Spanish Photographic Meteor Network (SPMN) performed an extensive campaign. As a part of this observational effort here are presented 10 accurate meteoroid orbits. We discuss their origin by comparing them with the theoretical orbital elements of the dust trails intercepting the Earth during the 2004 Perseid return.     

Late devensian ice sheet in the western Grampians,Scotland

A radial pattern of ice flow of the last ice sheet in the largest source area of ice (c. 5000 km²) in the British Isles in western Scotland is demonstrated by the dispersal of indicator erratics and by patterns of striae, friction cracks and ice-moulded landforms. Three major ice domes and the principal ice divide are identified in the western Grampians. The ice domes coincided with the highest mountain blocks while it is inferred that the alignment of many of the pre-existing valleys controlled much of the outflow of ice, forming ice streams within the ice sheet. The importance of the Rannoch Moor basin as a radial provider of ice to surrounding areas was apparently less significant than has hitherto been considered. Ice flowed into and across the southern part of the basin from the principal ice divide located to the west and south. No evidence has yet been found that would support a model of an eastward-migrating ice divide either during the build-up or during the deglaciation of the Late Devensian ice sheet.     

Collective resonant phenomena on small bodies in the solar system

For both asteroids and meteor streams, and also for comets, resonances play a major role for their orbital evolutions but on different time scales. For asteroids both mean motion resonances and secular resonances not only structure the phase space of regular orbits but are mainly at the origin for the inherent chaos of planet crosser objects.For comets and their chaotic routes temporary trapping into orbital resonances is a well known phenomenon. In addition for slow diffusion through the Kuiper belt resonances are the only candidates for originating a slow chaos.Like for asteroids, resonances with Jupiter play a major role for the orbital evolution of meteor streams. Crossing of separatrix like zones appears to be crucial for the formation of arcs and for the dissolution of streams. In particular the orbital inclination of a meteor stream appears to be a critical parameter for arc formation. Numerical results obtained in an other context show that the competition between the Poynting-Robertson drag and the gravitational interaction of grains near the 2/1 resonance might be very important in the long run for the structure of meteor streams.     

Precursory Signals of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

The distinct precursory signals of countrywide extensive and persistent extreme cold events (CECs) were investigated and contrasted with those of countrywide cold wave events (CCWs). It is shown that most CECs were accompanied by a CCW in the initial stages. From the comparison between the CECs and the CCWs that were independent of any CEC, it is found that a south- west-northeast-oriented tilted ridge at 500 hPa was present around the Europe-Barents Sea regions approximately 10 days prior to the start of the CEC. Consistent with this feature, a high sea level pressure and strong cold air accumulation occurred over a broad extent of northern Eurasia one week prior to the start of the CEC. The tilted ridge and the strong cold air accumulation were the precursory signals that were absent for the CCW, and they provide important clues for the early prediction of whether a CCW event might evolve into a CEC.     

湖南6月区域持续性暴雨的强信号及预报概念模型

基于湖南汛期区域持续性暴雨典型环流分型,利用1961—2016年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和异常度方法对湖南6月区域持续性暴雨环流型进行客观识别,并结合动力和水汽输送条件,确定湖南6月区域持续性暴雨强信号并客观量化表征,建立湖南6月区域持续性暴雨预报定量化概念模型。结果表明:43次历史区域持续性暴雨过程的回报准确率达到81%,2017—2018年3次区域持续暴雨过程试报准确率为2/3,说明该概念模型有一定预报能力,能为湖南暴雨预报业务服务提供技术支持。将该概念模型与各类模式预报产品相结合,还可开展区域持续性暴雨的中期和延伸期预报。