The Third Peak of the 1998 Leonid Meteor Shower

1 INTRODUCTIONThe Leonid meteor shower is a well-known periodic meteor shower. Its history is tied upwith the development of the theory of meteor stream astronomy itself. It was the very st.rongshowers of 1799 and 1833 that played a sghficant pat in the recoghtion of the ealstence ofmeteoroid streams. These evellts started the obse~ions of Leoaid meteor shower and broughtabout the birth of meteoritiCS. It is known that the Leould parent comet, 55P/Tempel-TUttle,has an orbital period a…     

Radar Observations of Taurid Complex Meteor Showers in 2003: Activity and Mass Distribution

Results of Ondřejov radar observation of Taurid complex meteor showers, i.e. ζ Perseids, β Taurids, S and N Taurids, performed in 2003, are presented. We have found some mass segregation within ζ Perseid, β Taurid and S Taurid showers. We have also established conspicuous lack of long duration echoes (with T ⩾ 3 s resp. T ⩾ 5 s) in S and N Taurid showers. The lack within remaining showers is not so pronounced but still persists.     

北极海洋沉积物中持久性有机污染物分布特征及分子地层学记录的研究

持久性有机污染物(POPs)普遍存在于各种环境介质中,其中有机氯农药(OCPs)和多氯联苯(PCBs)化学性质稳定,在环境中能持久残留.它们经食物链浓缩并在生物体内累积,大多数具有致癌、致畸、致突变效应,构成对人类和生态系统的潜在危害,成为世界公认的全球性环境公害.     

无碴轨道路基基床动力特性的研究

以遂渝线无碴轨道路基为背景,通过室内模型试验研究,分析了在循环加载条件下路基基床的动态力学特性。试验结果表明,动应力响应在基床表层横断面方向上呈“W”形分布,混凝土基础板轨下位置响应最大,中线处和端部响应较小,但随着深度的增加,逐渐变为盆形分布特征;在基床表层范围内,动态响应最为强烈,且随深度的增加,衰减速率较快;加载频率对动应力影响较小,对动位移及加速度影响较大。另外,在遂渝线无碴轨道综合试验段现场实车试验中,分别进行了CRH2型动车组和货物列车不同运行速度下路基基床的动力学响应测试研究,验证并评价了遂渝线无碴轨道路基基床工程适应性。     

地裂缝与斜交地铁隧道动力响应数值分析

采用ABAQUS有限元软件建立马蹄形地铁隧道与地裂缝呈60°斜交的计算模型研究地铁运行引起的地裂缝附近地层的振动响应。计算结果表明:隧道附近的土体振动较强烈,距离隧道越远,土体的加速度幅值越小;振动响应较强烈的区域,沿隧道纵向约为120 m,沿竖直方向为隧道下方15 m,与隧道纵向垂直的水平方向上为隧道左右20 m范围;振动在与隧道纵向垂直的水平方向传播时,无地裂缝地带在隧道两侧均匀衰减,地裂缝地带在有地裂缝的一侧振动衰减较快,说明地裂缝对地铁振动在地层中的传播有较强的阻隔作用;地裂缝附近隧道下方土层的振动要比上部土层强烈,传至地表的振动加速度基本衰减为零。      

大气对外强迫低频遥响应的数值模拟 Ⅰ:对赤道东太平洋SSTA的响应

本文通过在IAP-GCM上实现的数值模拟,研究了大气对赤道东太平洋地区暖SSTA的响应,着重讨论了大气遥响应的性质和演变过程. 数值模拟清楚地表明,大气对异常外源的响应主要是一种具有30—60天周期的低频遥响应.分析不同地区和不同季节这种强迫响应的30—60天低频振荡的结构及活动,可以清楚看到它与大气中实际存在着的30—60天振荡极为相似.因此也可以认为,大气对海温异常的强迫遥响应是激发产生全球大气30—60天振荡的重要机制.     

Design weight of armour stone considering the effect of extreme waves

In this study, waves with the heights higher than H_1/3 in an irregular wave train are called as extreme waves and defined with the help of extreme wave parameter, α_extreme. In order to see the effect of extreme waves on the design weight of armour stone, stability analysis is carried out based on the hydraulic model test results. The test results of high α_extreme cases (HE) and low α_extreme cases (LE) are compared with currently used van der Meer's formulae with permeability factor P=0.4 and 0.45 and Hudson formula by using H_1/3 and H_1/10 in terms of the design weight of armour stone. As a result of the comparison, it is found that Hudson formula by using H_1/3 underestimates the necessary armour weight. Usage of H_1/10 instead of H_1/3 in Hudson formula doubles the weight which seems overestimated when Irribaren number is away from the transition zone in which both wave run-up and run-down forces become effective. However, it seems underestimated near the transition zone where experiment case HE gives higher armour weights. When the design weight of armour stone is calculated by van der Meer's formulae with P=0.4, it may be necessary to increase the weight up to 30% in the case of high extreme waves. On the other hand, van der Meer's formulae may overestimate the weight 14% when the extreme waves are low.     

I型轨道-路基系统动力荷载放大系数模型试验研究

高速列车行车时产生的动力荷载大小受多种因素影响,以列车运行速度的影响尤为关键。由于车辆-轨道-路基结构的复杂性,要通过理论计算准确地确定行车速度对动力荷载的影响并不容易。目前足尺物理模型试验已成为高速铁路无砟轨道路基结构动力性能研究的重要手段。根据沪宁城际无砟轨道设计和施工标准,建成室内1: 1无砟轨道路基模型,通过单个轮轴的动态激振试验获得I型轨道板动应变幅值及路基动土压力幅值随加载频率的变化规律,在该基础上得到列车动荷载随行车速度的变化规律。结合德国铁路动力荷载放大系数的计算公式,提出确定高速铁路I型轨道结构动力荷载放大系数的方法,并分别获得轨道板与路基结构动力荷载放大系数随列车运行速度的变化规律,可为我国I型轨道-路基系统设计动力荷载的确定提供依据。     

时间序列InSAR监测地表形变

针对相干点目标的时间序列,提出了地表形变InSAR技术监测方法,该方法适用于小数据集分析。并采用郑州地区2007年1月到2010年4月期间的8景ALOS PALSAR数据进行验证分析。研究表明,识别的相干点目标具有大的干涉相干值和小的振幅离差,在时间序列中具有可靠的相位。从误差分析和与ENVISAT PSInSAR结果对比分析表明,该文求得的形变速率标准差在0.34mm/a和5.56mm/a之间,表明提出方法是可靠的。     

A PREDICTION SCHEME FOR THE PRECIPITATION OF SPR BASED ON THE DATA MINING ALGORITHM AND CIRCULATION ANALYSIS

Based on the 74 circulation indexes provided by National Climate Center of China (hereinafter referred to as NCC) and the 24 indexes compiled by NOAA, the study used the C4.5 algorithm in data mining to establish a decision tree prediction model to predict whether the Spring Persistent Rains (hereinafter referred to as SPR) of 55 years (from 1961 to 2015) is more than the normal, and obtained 5 rules to determine whether the SPR is more than the normal. The accuracy rate of the test set, namely “whether the SPR is more than the normal”, is 98.18%. After evaluating the model by conducting ten 10-fold cross validations to take the average value, the test accuracy rate gained is 84%. There are differences between the three types of years with a SPR more than the normal when it comes to intensity and distribution. In spring, they have respective anomalous 850hPa monthly mean wind fields and water-vapor flux distribution, and 700hPa forms the zone where the vertical speed is anomalously negative. As indicated by the results, the SPR prediction model based on the C4.5 algorithm has a high prediction accuracy rate, the model is reasonably and effectively constructed, and the decision rules take comprehensive factors into consideration. The anomalous rainfall and circulation distribution characteristics obtained based on the decision classification results provide new ideas and methods for the climatic prediction of SPR.