1993—2017年气候变化对西藏谷物单产的定量影响

气候变化对农业的影响是全球关注的热点问题之一,青藏高原对气候变化尤其敏感,但气候变化对青藏高原农业产量的定量影响缺乏系统研究。为定量评估气候变化对西藏谷物单产的影响,本文使用气象数据与年鉴统计数据,选取了固定效应模型、差分模型和线性去趋势模型3类统计模型,分析了1993—2017年间气候变化（最低气温、降水量、生长度日和太阳辐射）对西藏县（区）级、市级和自治区3个尺度的谷物单产的影响。结果表明：西藏整体对于温度（最低气温和生长度日）的敏感性大于降水量和太阳辐射。各项气候因子对西藏谷物单产的整体影响为正影响,但不同区域对气候因子的敏感程度和显著性不同。除了生长度日对于拉萨为负影响以外,最低气温、降水量和太阳辐射对于所有市均为正影响。气候趋势对于西藏整体谷物单产的影响为正影响,不同模型计算结果集中在1.5%~4.8%区间内。3类模型中固定效应模型稳定性最好,线性去趋势模型好于差分模型,差分模型在引入气候因子间的交互项后模型稳定性降低。本文有助于西藏实施更加有空间针对性的农业适应气候变化措施,以应对气候造成的青藏高原农业生态系统变化。     

A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF MISSING SPATIAL DATA USING A FIRST-ORDER MARKOV MODEL*

Geographical data sets sometimes contain missing observations that need to be estimated. A statistical approach to the problem is discussed for multivariate normal spatial data sets satisfying the first-order spatial Markov property with constant mean, where the information at neighboring or contiguous observed sites is used to estimate the missing values. The completed data are used to estimate the parameters of the distribution. The procedure is iterative. The approach is a special case of the Orchard and Woodbury missing information principle. The paper concludes with an illustrative empirical example using rainfall data from an area of Kansas and Nebraska. The quality of the estimates for different sites are compared.     

气候模式模拟中海量数据的并行抽取与可视化分析诊断

在地球动力学和气候模拟等领域, 数值模拟产生的数据规模达到Tb至Pb量级。 实现这些海量数据的实时可视化和实时诊断分析面临很大的困难, 时空多尺度数据抽取可以解决这一瓶颈。 高精度数据的可视化结果展示需要高分辨率的显示设备, 并行的大屏幕显示技术是解决这一问题的有效手段。 地球科学数值模拟、 并行数据抽取和高分辨率显示都需要搭建高性能计算机集群。 本文在基于Lagrange插值的多维度、 多尺度、 多分辨率并行数据抽取算法的同时, 利用并行计算节点及LCD显示器, 基于Rocks cluster系统搭建起一个176核, 4×10×1024×1280分辨率的高性能计算模拟、 数据抽取和并行显示输出的集成平台, 并将该平台成功应用到气候模式模拟产生的海量数据的并行抽取和并行显示。     

基于GIS的无人机地面监控系统的设计与实现

在分析无人机领域飞行数据特征的基础上,设计实现了一套功能较为完善的无人机地面监控系统。该系统主要完成了无人机飞行状态实时显示、航线规划和航线回放等功能模块。系统借助于G IS技术,导入矢量形式的电子地图,利用丰富的地理信息来辅助实现无人机的地面监控,在V isual C 6.0开发环境下利用基于异步方式和事件驱动方式的串口通信实现了系统与地面控制站的通信,利用地图控制文件实现了地图数据的调度,利用显示缓存实现了视图实时刷新。经过实际联调,系统运行良好,实用性较好。     

Evaluation of radar and automatic weather station data assimilation for a heavy rainfall event in southern China

To improve the accuracy of short-term(0–12 h) forecasts of severe weather in southern China, a real-time storm-scale forecasting system, the Hourly Assimilation and Prediction System(HAPS), has been implemented in Shenzhen, China. The forecasting system is characterized by combining the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF-ARW)model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System(ARPS) three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR) package. It is capable of assimilating radar reflectivity and radial velocity data from multiple Doppler radars as well as surface automatic weather station(AWS) data. Experiments are designed to evaluate the impacts of data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting(QPF) by studying a heavy rainfall event in southern China. The forecasts from these experiments are verified against radar, surface, and precipitation observations. Comparison of echo structure and accumulated precipitation suggests that radar data assimilation is useful in improving the short-term forecast by capturing the location and orientation of the band of accumulated rainfall. The assimilation of radar data improves the short-term precipitation forecast skill by up to9 hours by producing more convection. The slight but generally positive impact that surface AWS data has on the forecast of near-surface variables can last up to 6–9 hours. The assimilation of AWS observations alone has some benefit for improving the Fractions Skill Score(FSS) and bias scores; when radar data are assimilated, the additional AWS data may increase the degree of rainfall overprediction.     

新型波浪采集系统平台设计

主要介绍了新型波浪采集系统的设计思想与主要参数，采集、存储、运算和电源控制部分的结构与组成，以及各部分的特点和关键技术。     

The Agulhas Ridge, South Atlantic: The Peculiar Structure of a Fracture Zone

The Agulhas Ridge is a prominent topographic feature that parallels the Agulhas-Falkland Fracture Zone (AFFZ). Seismic reflection and wide angle/refraction data have led to the classification of this feature as a transverse ridge. Changes in spreading rate and direction associated with ridge jumps, combined with asymmetric spreading within the Agulhas Basin, modified the stress field across the fracture zone. Moreover, passing the Agulhas Ridge’s location between 80 and 69 Ma, the Bouvet and Shona Hotspots may have supplied excess material to this part of the AFFZ thus altering the ridge’s structure. The low crustal velocities and overthickened crust of the northern Agulhas Ridge segment indicate a possible continental affinity that suggests it may be formed by a small continental sliver, which was severed off the Maurice Ewing Bank during the opening of the South Atlantic. In early Oligocene times the Agulhas Ridge was tectono-magmatically reactivated, as documented by the presence of basement highs disturbing and disrupting the sedimentary column in the Cape Basin. We consider the Discovery Hotspot, which distributes plume material southwards across the AAFZ, as a source for the magmatic material.     

多源数据融合技术及其在地质矿产调查中应用

针对地质矿产调查的特点,介绍了多源数据融合技术的概念、基本方法,总结归纳了其在地质矿产调查中工作流程、实施步骤、注意事项,分析了多源数据融合技术在地质矿产调查中的应用意义。结合新疆黑山岭东南一带1：50000区域地质矿产调查项目,采用多源数据融合技术,在构造信息和矿化蚀变信息提取中,对遥感图像数据和地质、地球物理、地球化学数据进行了融合处理和叠合显示,取得了较好的地质效果。     

利用卫星影像和航空影像更新基础地理信息方法研究

基础地理信息的更新,是保证地理信息系统现势性的充要条件.卫星遥感影像数据具有周期短、信息丰富、现势性强等特征.利用卫星影像数据来更新基础地理信息数据是一种行之有效的方法.如何利用遥感数据融合技术,将多传感器获取的各种影像数据中所含的信息优势有机地结合起来,更是成为目前研究的热点.利用航空影像和Landsat多光谱波段影像进行数据融合,能够有效地提高影像空间分辨率,以获取更高质量的信息.     

平面滑动标准化法在区域水化资料整理中的应用

平面滑动标准化法是应用电子计算机处理(以下简体电算)大量区域水化资料的一种方法。它能够较好地反映水中各种元素的区域分布和圈定高背景区,准确地确定各类水异常的规模、强度和空间展布,有效地检出大量数据中的微弱信息,比传统整理方法具有显著的优越性。本文以65地区的应用效果加以说明。