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A STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR TREE‐RING RECONSTRUCTION OF HIGH‐MAGNITUDE MASS MOVEMENTS: CASE STUDY OF SNOW AVALANCHES IN EASTERN CANADA 下载免费PDF全文
DANIEL GERMAIN 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2016,98(4):303-311
This paper investigates the application of the peaks‐over‐threshold method in combination with fitting of the generalized Pareto distribution for estimating the frequency of high‐magnitude geomorphic events, on the basis of tree‐ring data. In particular, attention is focused on extreme value distribution of tree‐ring responses and in the minimum threshold or index number required to assure the past occurrence of high‐magnitude events. The objective is to set a threshold, adapted to the sample distribution, which will make the distinction between high‐magnitude years and remaining years, where the response of sampled trees is too weak to be attributed to a high‐magnitude geomorphic event. The statistical framework proposed is based on the statistics of extremes. Through the use of simple, strong and effective mathematics, this model should strengthen the position of dendrogeomorphology in the evaluation and management of natural hazards. 相似文献
53.
The concept of a spatially distributed unit hydrograph is based on the fact that the unit hydrograph can be derived from the time–area curve of a watershed by the S-curve method. The time–area diagram is a graph of cumulative drainage area contributing to discharge at the watershed outlet within a specified time of travel. Accurate determination of the time–area diagram is made possible by using a GIS. The GIS is used to describe the connectivity of the links in the watershed flow network and to calculate distances and travel times to the watershed outlet for various points within the watershed. Overland flow travel times are calculated by the kinematic wave equation for time to equilibrium; channel flow times are based on the Manning and continuity equations. To account for channel storage, travel times for channel reaches are increased by a percentage depending on the channel reach length and geometry. With GIS capability for rainfall mapping, the assumption of a uniform spatial rainfall distribution is no longer necessary; hence the term, spatially distributed unit hydrograph. An example of the application for the Waiparous Creek in the Alberta Foothills is given. IDRISI is used to develop a simple digital elevation model of the 229 km2 watershed, using 1 km × 1 km grid cells. A grid of flow directions is developed and used to create an equivalent channel network. Excess rainfall for each 1 km × 1 km cell is individually computed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve method and routed through the equivalent channel network to obtain the time–area curve. The derived unit hydrograph gave excellent results in simulating an observed flood hydrograph. The distributed unit hydrograph is no longer a lumped model, since it accounts for internal distribution of rainfall and runoff. It is derived for a watershed without the need for observed rainfall and discharge data, because it is essentially a geomorphoclimatic approach. As such, it allows the derivation of watershed responses (hydrographs) to inputs of various magnitudes, thus eliminating the assumption of proportionality of input and output if needed. The superposition of outputs is retained in simulating flood hydrographs by convolution, since it has been shown that some non-linear systems satisfy the principle of superposition. The distributed unit hydrograph appears to be a very promising rainfall runoff model based on GIS technology. 相似文献
54.
潮汐形变前驱波的时空特征 总被引:11,自引:7,他引:4
陈德福 《大地测量与地球动力学》2006,26(2):24-30
分析了潮汐形变观测记录的14个震例中36个前驱波图像的特点、形态、量级,总结了潮汐形变前驱波的时空特征主震震级Ms≥5.9时出现的可能性大,出现的时间多为震前0.1~6.5天;台站对Ms=5、6、7、≥7.9地震的有效监测距离分别为70、300、400、2000km。 相似文献
55.
云南省区域数字地震遥测台网自1999年建成以来,记录了大量地震波形资料,从2000年1月至2006年2月,云南省及邻区共发生ML≥4.0地震168次,对这些地震的震级重新进行了测定,结果表明,对于云南省的区域地震,近震的体波震级ML和面波震级MS之间不满足昆明地震台网多年使用的MS=1.13ML-1.08这一换算公式,且发现ML也不一定大于MS。 相似文献
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我国是缺钾大国,探明的可溶性钾盐十分有限,柴达木盆地是我国盐湖钾盐的聚集地,含水层骨架中含有数亿吨低品位固体钾矿,开发出这些低品位固体钾盐对增加国内钾肥供给,保障粮食安全具有重大意义。青海盐湖工业股份有限公司历经十年开发出低品位固体钾盐的浸泡式溶解转化方法,试验表明,固体钾盐的溶解转化率随固体钾品位的增加而增加,累计溶解转化率为56%~98%。该技术在柴达木多个盐湖得到推广应用,察尔汗盐湖保有固体钾盐达2.96×10~8 t,平均品位KCl为1.24%,根据试验数据回归分析溶解转化率77%,可溶解转化出钾盐(KCl)约2.28×10~8 t,柴达木盆地盐湖保有3.43×10~8 t固体钾盐,平均品位KCl为1.25%,溶解转化率78%,可溶解转化出钾盐(KCl)2.68×10~8 t,大幅度增加了钾盐储备量。 相似文献
58.
鄂尔多斯盆地西缘羊虎沟组物源特征对天然气勘探尤为重要。通过砂岩的碎屑组分、岩屑组分、重矿物组合以及石英阴极发光等研究,认为研究区羊虎沟组受到北部、西南部、南部物源控制,各个方位物源在研究区中部吴忠—马家滩地区汇合。通过砂岩轻、重矿物组合和碎屑组分的Dickinson三角图解,以及泥岩的稀土元素特征等分析,认为研究区羊虎沟组源岩以大陆上地壳岩石为主。研究区北部砂岩物源区为再旋回造山带物源区,泥岩球粒陨石标准化稀土元素配分模式与阿拉善古陆浅变质岩相似,具有亲缘性;西南部及南部砂岩物源区为稳定陆块区和再旋回造山带物源区,泥岩球粒陨石标准化稀土元素配分模式与祁连—北秦岭造山带中浅变质岩相似。综上所述,研究区北部母岩主要为阿拉善古陆的浅变质岩夹少许火山岩,西南部及南部母岩主要为祁连—北秦岭造山带的中浅变质岩,其次为碳酸盐岩和火山岩。 相似文献
59.
Prediction of threshold conditions and incipient motion is the essential issue for the study of sediment transport. This work compares existing empirical threshold curves proposed for Shields diagram, a method based on the concept of probability of sediment movement, and an empirical method based on movability number. These methods are used to predict the incipient motion conditions for experimental runs taken from various studies. Most of the experimental data, used in this work, have not been used before in derivation of alternative formulations for Shields diagram and other methods. The empirical threshold curves based on the Shields entrainment function was the least successful at predicting the measured incipient motion conditions, while the use of the movability number gives good predictions of critical shear velocity compared with experimental data. 相似文献
60.
Sacks��Ӧ����Ĺ۲������� 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
?о??????Sacks??????????????????????????????????????о??й????????????????????????о???????????????????????????????????о????????????????????????????6?Sacks??????????ε?????????????????????????????伫?????????????????????????????? 相似文献