A cascade approach to continuous rainfall data generation at point locations

High-resolution temporal rainfall data sequences serve as inputs for a range of applications in planning, design and management of small (especially urban) water resources systems, including continuous flow simulation and evaluation of alternate policies for environmental impact assessment. However, such data are often not available, since their measurements are costly and time-consuming. One alternative to obtain high-resolution data is to try to derive them from available low-resolution information through a disaggregation procedure. This study evaluates a random cascade approach for generation of high-resolution rainfall data at a point location. The approach is based on the concept of scaling in rainfall, or, relating the properties associated with the rainfall process at one temporal scale to a finer-resolution scale. The procedure involves two steps: (1) identification of the presence of scaling behavior in the rainfall process; and (2) generation of synthetic data possessing same/similar scaling properties of the observed rainfall data. The scaling identification is made using a statistical moment scaling function, and the log–Poisson distribution is assumed to generate the synthetic rainfall data. The effectiveness of the approach is tested on the rainfall data observed at the Sydney Observatory Hill, Sydney, Australia. Rainfall data corresponding to four different successively doubled resolutions (daily, 12, 6, and 3 h) are studied, and disaggregation of data is attempted only between these successively doubled resolutions. The results indicate the presence of multi-scaling behavior in the rainfall data. The synthetic data generated using the log–Poisson distribution are found to exhibit scaling behaviors that match very well with that for the observed data. However, the results also indicate that fitting the scaling function alone does not necessarily mean reproducing the broader attributes that characterize the data. This observation clearly points out the extreme caution needed in the application of the existing methods for identification of scaling in rainfall, especially since such methods are also prevalent in studies of the emerging satellite observations and thus in the broader spectrum of hydrologic modeling.     

国家地震紧急救援训练基地废墟训练场训练功能设计

本文简要介绍了国家地震紧急救援训练基地废墟训练场废墟构筑物A的背景和工程概况,主要从搜索功能训练和救援功能训练两个方面对废墟进行了功能设计：针对废墟构筑物A在训练功能实现过程中存在的问题进行了讨论,并提出了解决方法,为废墟A能更好的满足训练功能的要求提出了建议。     

经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法在合成近场强地震动中的联合运用

本文采取将经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法相结合的方式,突出体现了各自方法的优点,通过经验格林函数法确定地震震源参数,用随机有限断层法计算参数、检验其合理性。利用1998年新疆阿图什M6．9级地震的肘L4．7级余震记录,合成了这次地震的最大余震Ms6．0级地震的加速度记录,并将合成的结果与实际记录在频域和时域做了对比,分析研究了地震动特征和这次最大余震的可能破裂特征。同时对经验格林函数法需进一步改进的方向进行了探讨。     

Comparison of source parameters estimated in the frequency and time domains for seismic events at the Rudna copper mine,Poland

Source parameters estimated in the frequency domain for 100 selected seismic events from the Rudna copper mine, with moment magnitude ranging from 1.4 to 3.6, were collected to study their scaling relations and to compare them with the parameters estimated in the time domain. The apparent stress and static stress drop, corrected for the limited bandwidth recording, increase slightly in a similar manner with increasing seismic moment. The ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop, a measure of radiation efficiency, is practically constant and its mean value is close to 0.1. For 37 seismic events, with moment magnitude between 1.9 and 3.4, source parameters were estimated in the time domain from relative source time functions, that displayed unilateral rupture propagation, and their rupture velocity could be estimated. It ranges from 0.23 to 0.80 of shear wave velocity and is almost independent of seismic moment. The fault length, estimated from the average source pulse width and rupture velocity, is clearly dependent on seismic moment and is smaller than the source radius estimated from the corner frequency on the average by about 25 percent. There is no correlation between the values of static stress drop estimated in the frequency and time domains, but the time domain stress drop is in general similar to that estimated in the frequency domain. The apparent stress increases with increasing rupture velocity, and the ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop seems also to depend on rupture velocity.     

二元函数逼近在斜坡可靠度分析中的应用研究

极限平衡分析方法是斜坡稳定性评价中的常用方法,在长期的工程实践中积累了丰富的经验,但其不能考虑斜坡岩土体中实际存在的不确定性,在应用中具有一定的局限性。可靠度分析方法可有效地考虑斜坡系统内的不确定性和相关性,但因状态函数偏导数的求解比较困难,使可靠度分析方法在实际中应用不便。为解决上述问题,根据二元函数插值逼近原理,在矩形区域上构造拉格朗日不完全双二次多项式逼近状态函数,从而近似地计算状态函数的偏导数,求得状态函数的均值和方差,并利用精度较高的一次二阶矩方法来计算斜坡的可靠指标和破坏概率。据鄂西恩施地区马堡营滑坡实例分析表明,引入二元函数插值逼近的一次二阶矩方法计算结果与剩余推力法及Monte-carlo模拟方法结果一致,其精度可满足工程需求。     

省域发展潜力影响要素及其作用机理分析

围绕区域发展潜力来源,建构了区域发展潜力影响要素分析框架,论述了外部环境、内部资源、内部能力的组成及其影响机理。得出：区域发展阶段不同,区域发展潜力影响因素的类型与质量存在分异。且不同发展阶段下发展潜力主导影响因素呈现：（1）处于农业经济主导和工业化初期的区域,受控于自然资源与条件、人口与劳动力;（2）处在工业化中、末期的区域,主导因素是区域经济基础、人力资本和发展战略;（3）处在后工业化和信息时代的区域,区域能力是其主导因素。     

陕西省耕地资源数量与经济发展关系的计量分析

基于1978-2005年陕西省耕地资源数量与经济发展的统计数据,运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法分析了陕西省耕地资源数量与经济发展之间的互动关系,结果显示:1)陕西省耕地资源数量与经济发展之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度为4.23%,调整力度非常小;2)经济发展的冲击可以部分解释耕地资源数量的变化,解释水平为12%以下,耕地资源数量的冲击对经济发展的解释水平在18%以下;3)耕地资源数量、经济发展均显著地受其自身波动的影响.建议从提升经济发展质量和耕地利用效率等方面采取长期性、综合性的政府干预措施.     

云南石林景区恢复植被的土壤水文结构功能研究

基于喀斯特恢复植被生态系统功能评价的要求,采用土壤水文结构功能模型评价云南石林景区恢复植被的土壤水文结构功能。选取原生滇青冈林、恢复26a的次生林B、恢复21a次生林A、恢复8a的灌丛、石漠化灌草丛和恢复30a云南松林6个样地,分别调查它们的土壤水文结构特征。相对于原生林,石漠化样地经过8a的封禁,其土壤水文结构功能可恢复31%,21a可恢复45%,人工飞播的云南松林经过30a恢复的只有38%,而砍伐林地封禁26a可恢复71%。土壤水文结构功能评价模型基本适用于岩溶区不同恢复林地的土壤水文结构功能的恢复评价。      

利用远震接收函数反演陕西地震台站下方的地壳厚度

文中利用陕西数字地震遥测台网14个遥测子台记录的远震波形资料,用频率域反褶积方法提取接收函数,由H-Kappa叠加方法反演得到各台站下方的地壳厚度和泊松比。在此基础上结合相关地震构造文献,对陕西地区的地壳特征进行了分析,并讨论了陕西地震活动与地壳结构、地质构造之间的关系。研究结果表明:1)陕西地区的地壳总体趋势是东薄西厚,陕西南部和北部地区地壳较厚(≥40km),位于陕西中部的渭河盆地地壳较薄(34～40km);14个台站中,渭河盆地东部与山西交界的华阴台下方地壳厚度最薄(34km),而盆地西北端的陇县台位于六盘山余脉上,地壳厚度最厚(48km)。2)陕西地区泊松比值总体变化不大(0.24～0.29),可能表明这一地区的岩石组成以中度组分为主;以渭河盆地为界,向北靠近地台一侧泊松比值相对较高,向南靠近秦岭山脉一侧则比值相对较低。3)地震活动与地质构造之间存在内在的联系。渭河盆地处于几个构造体系的复合部位,属于强地震的多发区;陕西南部地区的地震活动相对较弱,主要发生在汉中盆地和安康盆地,受陕南几条主要断裂控制;陕西北部地区地质构造相对稳定,地震活动最弱。泊松比反映了地球内部的物质构成,分析认为其与地震活动存在一     

地震动随机函数模型研究(Ⅰ)——模型建立

基于随机过程的随机函数解释,发展了一种随机地震动模型.模型包括两个部分,分别是基于理论物理关系的Fourier幅值谱模型和基于经验关系的Fourier相位谱模型.基于拟加速度谱概念建立的幅值谱模型能够反映强震记录的幅值特性,而Fourier相位谱模型则利用累积相位谱的单值连续特性,以线性多项式与三角级数组合的形式给出.模拟记录与实测记录对比结果显示两者不仅在波形结构上相似性良好,而且反应谱层次亦吻合良好.