准噶尔盆地西北缘一次大到暴雨天气过程分析

通过分析2010年6月28-29日发生在准噶尔盆地西北缘的一次大到暴雨天气,揭示了形成这次强降水天气的环流背景特点、物理量和雷达回波特征。结果显示：冷暖气团在克拉玛依地区附近相遇产生的中尺度锋生现象触发了本次暴雨天气过程。表现最明显的特征是：高空槽移动缓慢,中层切变线不断南压、低层中尺度系统维持,冷暖气团在该区域强烈交汇。暴雨区雷达速度场有明显的风场幅合。对流降水云团强度、移向变化的预测,是此类天气临近预报的关键和难点。     

Quantifying the social equity of carbon mitigation strategies

Many tools that are helpful for evaluating emissions mitigation measures, such as carbon abatement cost curves, focus exclusively on cost and emissions reduction potential without quantifying the direct and indirect impacts on stakeholders. The impacts of climate change will be the most severe and immediate for billions of poor people, especially for those whose livelihoods are based on agriculture and subsistence activities and are directly dependent on weather patterns. Thus, equity and vulnerability considerations must be central to GHG emissions reduction strategies. A case study of a carbon abatement cost curve for an electricity system in two Nicaraguan rural villages is presented and is complemented with assessments based on the poverty metrics of the poverty headcount, the Gini coefficient, and the Kuznets ratios. Although these metrics are relatively easy to calculate, the study provides a general indication as to how the social impacts of mitigation strategies on the poor (whether they are in rural or urban environments, developed or developing countries) can be revealed and highlights the inequalities that are embedded in them. Further work analysing how mitigation measures affect the various more detailed poverty indices, such as the Human Development, Gender Equality, or Multidimensional Poverty indices, is needed.     

Planning adaptation based on local actors’ knowledge and participation: a climate governance experiment

Involving a wide-range of stakeholders at different moments in the planning of urban adaptation to climate change can help to overcome different barriers to adaptation, such as a lack of common perception, or control over options. This Article argues for an approach that involves a wide range of actors throughout the planning process in order to confront the challenges of urban adaptation to climate change. It builds on the results of a three-year participatory action research project to identify the catalysts with which local administrations can overcome the lack of data, the low level of engagement around the climate issue, and the cause-and-effect linkages of climate change impacts on the urban environment. Significant factors include territorial rootedness, leveraging actors’ experience, interaction between actors, as well as the valuing of local actors as experts of territorial management rather than as novices with regard to climate change adaptation. In addition to contributing towards the engagement of a large number of stakeholders around adaptation issues, a planning process that involves representatives from various sectors and during several stages contributes to a greater understanding of these issues and their linkages. It follows that such a process will bring changes to urban practices by better articulating local concerns about climatic issues.

Policy relevance

Although participation is commonly advocated in policy responses to climate change, only few empirical studies have investigated the ways in which local actors' knowledge can be integrated into climate change adaptation planning processes. The article builds on the results of an action research project carried out in Québec City, Canada, to address the relevance of involving a progressively broader range of actors as the adaptation process moves through its various phases. Given that a multitude of barriers to adaptation are at play at different times in a municipality, collaborations between local stakeholders emerge as a key factor. These collaborations provide greater insight into the linkages between climate change impacts and the urban environment and, in doing so, bring into question ordinary urban management and design practices.     

Municipal emissions trading: reducing transport emissions through cap-and-trade

A novel approach is described for limiting transport emissions through a cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme, whereby local governments would be the participants of emissions trading. It is proposed that emissions trading for passenger road transport has the effect of channelling the carbon costs away from fuel prices to land use costs. A ‘municipal emissions trading scheme’ could achieve this—local governments would have to cover vehicle traffic emissions generated by homes, businesses and industry on their territory. Municipalities are able to participate in an emissions trading scheme because they have planning control over development on their territory, and could control the amount of future vehicular traffic. Through planning, municipalities have access to a wide range of strategies to minimize transport emissions. Municipal emissions can be calculated as a share of total national road transport emissions with the help of a gravity model of traffic attraction. A municipal emissions trading system would result in capping and controlling passenger road transport emissions, not through raising fuel prices or importing credits, but by enforcing prudent and climate-efficient urban planning practices.     

局地因素对青藏公路沿线多年冻土区地温影响分析

气候是多年冻土形成与变化的动力,局地因素则通过改变地表辐射、对流和传导过程对多年冻土产生影响,导致多年冻土发生空间分异.应用青藏公路沿线大量的观测资料分析了局地因素对多年冻土区地温所产生的影响.结果表明:地形地貌、植被、积雪、土壤性质及含水量等局地因素,对青藏公路沿线地区多年冻土的发育和多年冻土热状况有显著影响.局地因...     

基于波动方程的检波点二次定位

在进行浅海过渡带地震资料采集时,需要将电缆和检波器沉放到海底,由于洋流、潮汐等因素的影响会使检波点的实际位置与预设位置不同,从而严重影响了后续的地震资料处理工作,因此需要对检波点进行二次定位。在海底检波点二次定位中,炮点位置已知而检波点位置未知,需要从多个炮点位置正向外推波场,使波场逐步延拓到检波点,以此来获得检波点的位置。具体实现是在海底划分网格应用克希霍夫积分法外推渡场,获得网格点的能量值,能量最高的网格点便是检波点的位置。在划分网格时需要先粗分网格,求得网格点能量值,然后在能量高的网格点区域重新细分网格,通过细分网格点的能量值来确定出检波点位置。在检波点二次定位中利用的主要是直达波的波场信息,在预处理时,需要突出直达波压制干扰波。基于波动方程的检波点二次定位在模拟和实际地震资料处理中都得到了良好的效果,验证了这种方法的可行性。     

面向本地市场的目的地旅游发展研究——以香港为例

通过对香港居民本地旅游消费行为的调查与访谈发现,家庭群体是本地旅游市场的消费主力,因此,本地居民虽然在单次旅游消费上表现为中低水平,但旅游活动的频率次数、人数规模都相当可观,同样成为了旅游目的地消费群体的主力构成。同时,居民本地旅游活动表现出自助活动为主、意愿偏好明显等消费行为特征,由此对旅游产品开发、公共交通设施、市场宣传营销以及旅游发展的社会公平都提出了不同于外地游客的要求,目的地的旅游发展必须在上述方面进行针对性地组织安排,才能实现对本地旅游消费市场的开拓发展,从而促成目的地旅游发展经济性和公平性的共同实现。     

目的地居民旅游感知态度研究——以丹江口水库南部东岸及南岸为例

目的地居民对旅游业的感知态度因旅游发展阶段不同而不同。以丹江口水库南部东岸及南岸——南水北调中线工程渠首核心区为研究区域,通过构建居民潜在旅游影响感知评价指标体系,采用实地调查和统计分析方法,分析了研究区居民对潜在旅游影响的一般感知态度,并就居民社会人口统计学特征与潜在旅游影响感知的内在关系进行了探索,揭示了不同居民群体对研究区旅游开发潜在影响的感知态度差异,为研究区旅游业可持续发展提供科学依据。     

格尔木河流域面积-高程积分值的地貌学分析

在sRTM-DEM数据的基础上,运用GIS空间分析技术,系统提取了格尔木河三级流域及部分二级流域地形参数和面积-高程积分值,探讨了面积-高程积分值的面积及空间依赖性,并对面积-高程积分值(HI)对构造活动性、岩性变化、冰川作用强度的指示意义进行了研究.研究表明:HI值具有面积依赖及空间依赖性;东昆南断裂(F4)-西大滩断裂(F3)以昆仑山口为界可以分为东西两部分,各自的活动性都是中间强往两边依次减小,东昆中断裂(F1)的活动性变化不大;岩性对HI影响表现出,侵入岩的抗侵蚀力最大,片岩的抗侵蚀力最小,碳酸盐岩组合的抗侵蚀力居中;冰川作用对地貌发育和侵蚀程度有改造作用,与只有古冰川发育或无古冰川流域比较,有现代冰川发育,古冰川作用遗迹广泛的流域,HI值较大并会出现U型谷.     

陡坡密集点云双重滤波方法研究

用地形三维激光扫描仪监测陡坡表面的细微变化,关键技术之一是对原始点云的精确滤波,即从密集点云中准确滤除非地形点,保留真实地形点。针对地势陡峭、表面复杂、植被多、密度分布极不均匀的陡坡点云,笔者发展了一种双重滤波方法:在对原始点云进行投影面变换的基础上,采用变窗口均值限差法滤除明显的非地形点,完成粗滤波;通过局部区域增长法找出绝大多数地形点,以占优势的地形点为参考,用局部最小二乘曲面拟合法对剩余未分类数据点进行检核,分离出非地形点,完成精滤波。文中选用3个不同类型的陡坡点云实例验证了该方法对于陡坡密集点云具有良好的滤波效果。该算法对野外大场景三维激光扫描点云滤波也有一定的参考价值。