中尺度数值模式中湿过程参数化的敏感性试验

本文利用一个三维中尺度模式，分别采用两种不同的湿过程处理方案ＦＰＡ和ＮＣＡ模拟同一个洋面冷锋个例，以考察模拟结果对湿过程参数化方案的敏感性。两种方案的区别在于前一种使用了次网格湿对流参数化而后者没有。通过比较分别使用ＦＰＡ和ＮＣＡ方案所进行的模拟ＦＰＳ和ＮＣＳ，发现冷锋结构在两者间出现较大差异。从８５０ hPa等压面|Δθe|等值线图所显示的结构看，ＮＣＳ中冷锋呈现为一长一短两条锋带，而ＦＰＳ中冷锋仅呈现为一条锋带。在相应的冷锋横向垂直剖面中，ＮＣＳ中存在两个相邻的锋面垂直环流，而ＦＰＳ中只有一个。另外，ＮＣＳ中对流不稳定的冷锋区出现垂直运动过分发展的现象，而ＦＰＳ中不存在这个问题。通过与卫星云图比较，我们注意到，ＮＣＳ中尽管出现了垂直运动过分发展的现象，但相对于ＦＰＳ而言，其模拟的冷锋结构与实际较为接近，成功地模拟出云图上显示的双冷锋结构。ＮＣＳ中垂直运动过分发展的一个重要原因是模式中采用的静力平衡近似。ＦＰＳ中次网格对流参数化方案的使用，通过减少甚至消除对流不稳定度，一方面使垂直运动的过分发展倾向受到约束，另一方面也可能使在对流不稳定层结下的锋区环境中本应出现的中尺度结构失去了形成的机会。     

水平气压梯度力差分格式误差的定量分析

通过分析发现地形坐标系中气压梯度力差分格式的计算误差应分为二类，其中，第二类误差在水平坐标面倾斜时出现。这种误差可理解为将水平坐标面上的气压(或位势高度)插回到等高面(或等压面)上的插值误差。 构造气压梯度力差分格式的目的正是为了减小这种第二类误差，而不是其他误差。 误差分析表明静力扣除法和Corby 格式的第二类误差都很小，比一般方法的误差小约一个量级。分析还表明第二类误差产生的主要原因是由于气压随高度非线性变化。依据这一分析思路，本文改进了#As(z)#a坐标系中的静力扣除法。 改进后的方法比改进前的误差小约一个量级。     

An experiment on reservoir representation schemes to improve hydrologic prediction: coupling the national water model with the HEC-ResSim

ABSTRACT

This study experiments with reservoir representation schemes to improve the ability to model active water management in the National Water Model (NWM). For this purpose, we developed an integrated water management model, NWM-ResSim, by coupling the NWM with HEC-ResSim, and two reservoir representation schemes are tested: simulation of reservoir operations and retrieval of scheduled operations. The experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain in the Russian River basin – Lake Mendocino, California – and its contributing watershed. The evaluation results suggest that the NWM-ResSim improves the simulation performance of reservoir outflow from this managed reservoir over the NWM default level pool routing scheme. The degree of this improvement depends on the suitability of the operation guidance; the reservoir operations simulation scheme could have acceptable errors for the purposes of water resources management, but not for flood operations. Results of the retrieval scheme of scheduled operations demonstrated better performance for sub-daily flood operations.     

Groundwater flow and solute transport at the Mourquong saline-water disposal basin, Murray Basin, southeastern Australia

Saline groundwater and drainage effluent from irrigation are commonly stored in some 200 natural and artificial saline-water disposal basins throughout the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. Their impact on underlying aquifers and the River Murray, one of Australia's major water supplies, is of serious concern. In one such scheme, saline groundwater is pumped into Lake Mourquong, a natural groundwater discharge complex. The disposal basin is hydrodynamically restricted by low-permeability lacustrine clays, but there are vulnerable areas in the southeast where the clay is apparently missing. The extent of vertical and lateral leakage of basin brines and the processes controlling their migration are examined using (1) analyses of chloride and stable isotopes of water (²H/¹H and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) to infer mixing between regional groundwater and lake water, and (2) the variable-density groundwater flow and solute-transport code SUTRA. Hydrochemical results indicate that evaporated disposal water has moved at least 100 m in an easterly direction and that there is negligible movement of brines in a southerly direction towards the River Murray. The model is used to consider various management scenarios. Salt-load movement to the River Murray was highest in a "worst-case" scenario with irrigation employed between the basin and the River Murray. Present-day operating conditions lead to little, if any, direct movement of brine from the basin into the river. Electronic Publication     

应用自然电场法研究地下水流场

讨论了不同水文地质条件下自然电场“8”字图特征,对评价输水管线等渗漏引起的环境问题具有指导意义。     

热源法探测陡河水库左坝肩绕坝渗漏通道

通过热源法对陡河水库渗漏通道的探测发现,陡河水库左坝肩存在着绕坝渗漏通道。在左坝肩基岩10m高程附近存在低温场异常,通过对水库底部附近温度场分布测量,判定出低温水来自上游右支河水的补给,通过低温区分布确定出绕坝渗漏强渗漏通道的位置,在库水位保持在32m时,根据热源法计算出渗漏通道的渗漏量在3.59×105~4.74×105m3/d之间,钻孔发现水库边基岩中的水位比库水位低22m,水位差是造成了水库跌窝事故的主要原因,在11#钻孔中发现了来自河床的细砂,在11#和9#孔中的连通试验证实基岩中的强渗漏通道。     

环境同位素和模糊聚类法研究堤坝渗漏

利用环境同位素方法对高水河堤防几个典型段进行了渗漏分析,查明了其地下水的渗漏来源,结果表明,江都船厂段T1#孔、小菜谭段T23#孔中的地下水为河水补给来源,T5#孔附近的黑鱼塘水为当地降雨补给,万寿宫段T7#孔中的地下水为河水和当地降雨的混合。由于环境同位素的分析方法只能定性的说明问题,笔者尝试应用模糊聚类方法,选取环境同位素和水化学值作为指标特征值,并赋与不同的权重,进行模糊聚类分析,分析结果与环境同位素、水化学分析结论一致。     

上犹江水电站坝基渗漏检测与分析

本文以上犹江水电站左岸地下水渗漏检测及分析为例。介绍以伪随机流场法、综合水量均衡法、水质和析出物化学分析法等相结合的渗漏检测与分析的方法技术，检测的结果与已有的工程地质资料以及水工观测资料是一致的。该方法技术体系不仅能查明水库渗水来源，还对渗漏通道、渗漏原因进行推断分析。避免以往单一方法的片面性，为检测分析水库坝基的渗漏提供了一种新的思路。     

气象遥感资料变分校准方案改进及应用试验

针对常见气象遥感资料变分校准方案的不足，提出了一个改进方案。该方案不需要将校准参照量插值到遥测资料的格点上，既避免了对稀疏的校正参照量进行客观分析的困难，也避免了校正参照量稀缺区域不准确插值分析带来的不利影响，使遥感资料的整体偏差得到修订的同时，能够更好地保持遥测资料的空间分布形态不变。利用国家卫星气象中心通过9210下发的ATOVS反演产品进行了试验，结果表明改进方案校准效果好；并将校准后的ATOVS反演资料用于Grapes三维变分同化系统，应用试验表明校准后的ATOVS反演资料在三维变分同化系统中具有应用价值。     

APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.