GRACE估计南极冰川质量变化的泄露影响及其改正

利用2003-01～2013-12期间GRACE数据反演得到地球表面质量变化,使用全球正向建模恢复法改正泄露影响,获得南极冰盖质量变化。比较GRACE直接估计和泄露影响改正后的结果发现,南极冰盖在2003～2013年质量变化信号衰减20.3%,西南极有26.4%的质量消融信号泄露到了周边,东南极的泄露影响更高达70%。改正后的结果表明,南极冰盖绝大部分质量消融发生在西南极和南极半岛,质量积累发生在东南极的Ronne冰架和Amery冰架;西南极冰盖质量变化速度达到-152.47±2.00 Gt/a,基本上等同于南极全岛的质量消融速度,而南极半岛的冰盖融化速度为-27.44±0.75 Gt/a,基本与东南极的冰盖质量积累速度27.27±5.12Gt/a抵消;南极全岛冰川整体质量以-152.64±7.00 Gt/a速度消失,并以-18.85±4.87 Gt/a2的加速度加速融化,导致海平面以0.41 mm/a的速度上升。     

白鹤滩水电站左岸坝肩开挖边坡稳定性分析

白鹤滩水电站左岸坝基边坡地质构造错综复杂,坡内多条陡倾断层和顺坡向错动带是控制边坡稳定性的主要因素。结合现场地质资料、监测数据及勘察认识,利用通用离散元软件UDEC建立左岸边坡开挖变形分析模型。首先在无支护开挖工况下研究主要结构面F17、LS331、LS3319上下盘岩体关键点应力及位移变化,并指出潜在失稳破坏区;同时采用预应力锚索单元在不同施工时序下对潜在不稳定块体进行加固计算,对比研究了不同方案下左岸边坡的变形破坏机制和整体稳定性。计算结果和现场监测表明：左岸边坡变形破坏与结构面密切相关,在开挖卸荷作用下主要表现为沿错动带的压剪破坏和陡倾断层的张拉破坏,采用预应力锚索加固处理能够有效提高边坡稳定性,并且在开挖后及时跟进支护可以有效抑制边坡剪切变形。研究结果对白鹤滩左岸坝基边坡后续工程加固和施工工序具有一定的参考价值。     

天然气水合物开采过程甲烷气泄漏海床基高密度电阻率法监测效果模拟与分析

为实现天然气水合物开采过程沉积物内甲烷气泄漏过程有效监测,设计了一种海床基原位电学监测方法。为界定该方法对不同模式泄露甲烷气的探测能力,以南海神狐海域天然气水合物试采区为研究区,构建相应地质及电阻率模型,模拟利用设计电学系统对其进行监测,计算得到不同采集参数的电阻率剖面,并对其进行对比分析。研究结果表明：海水层会在探测剖面上某深度区间内形成层状低阻异常带,对该深度区间有效电信号形成压制。将该异常带顶界深度定义为系统有效探测深度后,发现该深度受电极距直接影响,10 m极距偶极装置有效探测深度约为50 m。电学探测剖面对有效探测深度内分布的层状和团状甲烷气聚集区、慢速甲烷气泄露区、沿断层泄露的甲烷气区具有良好反映能力,数据处理得到的相对电阻率剖面与电学探测剖面相比能更好地反映甲烷气聚集区边界。该监测方法能够实时监测含气区空间变化。     

南堡1号构造馆三段断盖配置油气渗漏部位及其控藏作用

为了研究南堡凹陷南堡1号馆三段火山岩盖层上下油气分布规律,在馆三段火山岩盖层及其内油气渗漏断裂发育及分布特征研究的基础上,通过对馆三段火山岩盖层断接厚度与其封油气所需最小断接厚度相对大小的比较和对油气渗漏断裂凸面脊的确定,预测了南堡1号构造馆三段断盖配置油气渗漏部位;并结合油气分布,对断盖配置油气渗漏部位对油气成藏与分布的控制作用进行了研究。结果表明,南堡1号构造馆三段断盖配置发育10处油气渗漏部位,其中：F₂及分支断裂油气渗漏部位最发育,有3处油气渗漏部位;其次是F₁、F₆断裂,有2处油气渗漏部位;F₃、F₄、F₅和F₇断裂仅各发育1处油气渗漏部位。这些油气渗漏部位及附近有利于下伏东一段油气在上覆馆三段之上聚集成藏,应是造成南堡1-1断鼻、南堡1-3断块和南堡1-5断鼻北部油区油气既可以分布在下伏东一段又可分布在馆三段之上,而南堡1-5断鼻南部油气仅分布在下伏东一段的根本原因。     

Seismic indicators of focused fluid flow and cross-evaporitic seepage in the Eastern Mediterranean

We present for the first time a synthesis of the evidence of focused fluid flow in the Eastern Mediterranean, providing an updated record that includes recent and past occurrences through the last ca. 6 My of evolution of the basin. We do this by adding the interpretation of a previously unpublished regional 2D seismic dataset to the existing occurrences of focused fluid flow reported in the literature. Our interpretation shows a high number (141) of focused fluid flow features, which span the stratigraphic interval from late Miocene to Recent. Of these features, (82) are at the seabed, and (59) are buried. The previous published record is more difficult to quantify, but in comparison shows an overwhelming majority of seabed features, with only rare examples of buried features.The spectrum of the buried and seabed features covers pockmarks, pipes, mud volcanoes, clastic intrusions and collapse structures. Clustering of the fluid flow features is observed at different times in specific areas, including the Nile Cone, and the Levant, Herodotus, Cyprus and Latakia basins. With the buried record, we are able to highlight the evolution of the leakage points through time. Focused fluid flow venting has been occurring since the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis and the start of basinwide deposition of evaporites. We focus in particular on seismic indicators of leakage through evaporites, and of sub-evaporitic source for fluids and remobilised sediments. We also discuss the role of the evaporites as a seal to ascending fluids, and in which circumstances they can be breached.Fluids (and associated remobilised sediments) are sourced from different intervals, from the sub- and supra-evaporitic section, and possibly within the evaporites. Only a minor proportion of the fluid flow features are certainly sourced from below the Messinian evaporites, and most of them are located in the Nile-Levant-Eratosthenes areas. The few examples of pathways that are able to cross thick, undeformed and well preserved evaporites are typically correlated to overpressure release and hydrofracturing. This confirms that the evaporites do act regionally as a very good seal as expected, while fluids are able to cross the evaporites only in their most extreme expression, i.e. in near-lithostathic overpressure conditions. This is confirmed by our observations made in the Eastern Mediterranean, where in the presence of relatively undisturbed evaporites, cross-evaporite vertical fluid pathways are only observed at the high end of the flux-pressure range, and involve sediment remobilisation. Maps combining these different elements can be used to detect areas potentially more prone to breaching.     

A study on one-dimensional consolidation of layered structured aquitard soils in a leakage system

Analytical solutions expressed using the hydraulic head for the one-dimensional consolidation of layered structured aquitard soils in a leakage system are deduced by transforming the n-layered structured soils into n + i (i = 1,2,…, n)-layered soils with gradually changing thicknesses, therein considering the behaviors of structured aquitard soils. The solutions are given in the case of instantaneous and linear decreasing confined aquifer water levels. By comparing three different examples, the effects of the structured behaviors on the consolidation characteristics are analyzed for the instantaneous decline of the confined aquifer water level.     

Well-balanced numerical modelling of non-uniform sediment transport in alluvial rivers

The last two decades have witnessed the development and application of well-balanced numerical models for shallow flows in natural rivers.However,until now there have been no such models for flows with non-uniform sediment transport.This paper presents a 1D well-balanced model to simulate flows and non-capacity transport of non-uniform sediment in alluvial rivers.The active layer formulation is adopted to resolve the change of bed sediment composition.In the framework of the finite volume Slope Llmiter Centred(SLIC) scheme,a surface gradient method is incorporated to attain well-balanced solutions to the governing equations.The proposed model is tested against typical cases with irregular topography,including the refilling of dredged trenches,aggradation due to sediment overloading and flood flow due to landslide dam failure.The agreement between the computed results and measured data is encouraging.Compared to a non-well-balanced model,the well-balanced model features improved performance in reproducing stage,velocity and bed deformation.It should find general applications for non-uniform sediment transport modelling in alluvial rivers,especially in mountain areas where the bed topography is mostly irregular.     

Analytical model of well leakage pressure perturbations in a closed aquifer system

Deep saline aquifers are commonly used for disposal and storage of various surface fluids. The target injection zone must be hydraulically isolated from overlying zones in order to ensure containment of the injected fluids. Improperly plugged nonoperational abandoned wells that penetrate the injection zone are the main potential leakage pathways. Leakage through such wells may cause an observable pressure signal in a zone overlying the injection zone; such a signal can be used to detect the leakage. In this paper we develop an analytical model to evaluate the pressure change induced by leakage through a well in a multilayer system. Unlike previous analytical models on the topic, our model uses a closed system, which may significantly affect the strength and behavior of the pressure signal induced by leakage. The analytical model is first presented for a two-layer system centered at the leaky well location. We evaluate the leakage-induced pressure change using the Laplace transform of Duhamel’s superposition integral, yielding the solution in the Laplace domain. We then derive a late-time asymptotic solution using the final value theorem, which suggests that the leakage rate becomes constant after sufficient time. We then obtain the multilayer solution by extending the two-layer solution and presenting it in matrix form in the Laplace domain. We apply the solution to three examples. In the first example, we apply the analytical model to a two-layer system, investigating its behavior and comparing the results with a numerical solution. In order to demonstrate behavior and potential applications of the multilayer analytical model, we present two multilayer examples: one with identical layers and another, replicating a CO₂ storage site, with dissimilar layers. The leakage-induced pressure change does not necessarily decrease as the distance increases from the injection zone toward the surface.     

滇西实验场地震中短临动态跟踪综合预测方案及其实践运用

对滇西实验场1992年以来地下流体前兆观测资料进行分析研究,选取应震效果通过R信度检验（对应MS≥5.0级地震）的8条单项前兆指标。综合考虑单项前兆指标虚报率和漏报率对指标信度的影响,对单项前兆指标利用数学模型进行综合处理,减少了虚报和漏报的次数,预测效果明显提高。利用分级预警模式分别建立了中期（T≤6个月）和短临（T≤3个月）预测模型。综合预测方案还提供了地点判定原则和震级估算原则。最终提供地震短临预测三要素。运用本综合预测方案对2011年腾冲5级双震、2013年洱源5级双震和德钦两次5级地震作用了较为成功的短临预测。     

An improved diagnostic stratocumulus scheme based on estimated inversion strength and its performance in GAMIL2

Based on satellite data and the estimated inversion strength (EIS) derived by Wood et al. (2006), a feasible and uncomplicated stratocumulus scheme is proposed, referred to as EIS scheme. It improves simulation of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG version 2 (GAMIL2.0) model. When compared with the original lower troposphere stability (LTS) scheme, the EIS scheme reproduces more reasonable climatology distributions of clouds and CRF. The parameterization partly corrects CRF underestimation at mid and high latitudes and overestimation in the convective region. Such improvements are achieved by neglecting the effect of free-tropospheric stratification changes that follow a cooler moist adiabat at middle and high latitude, thereby improving simulated cloudiness. The EIS scheme also improves simulation of the CRF interannual variability. The positive net CRF and negative stratiform anomaly in the East Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions (EAWNPMR) are well simulated. The EIS scheme is more sensitive to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than the LTS. Therefore, under the effect of a warmer SSTA in the EAWNPMR, the EIS generates a stronger negative stratiform response, which reduces radiative heating in the low and mid troposphere, in turn producing strong subsidence and negative anomalies of both moisture and cloudiness. Consequent decreases in cloud reflection and shading effects ultimately improve simulation of incoming surface shortwave radiative fluxes and CRF. Because of the stronger subsidence, a stronger anomalous anticyclone over the Philippines Sea is simulated by the EIS run, which leads to a better positive precipitation anomaly in eastern China during ENSO winter.