Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震科普视频点播系统的设计与实现

地震的科普知识是公众关心的内容,为了更好地向公众普及地震科普知识,利用流媒体技术设计了基于流媒体技术的地震科普视频点播系统。主要介绍了地震科普视频点播系统的系统设计、系统实现的关键技术以及在地震行业中的应用。     

我国干旱区生态需水若干问题评述

生态需水是当前水问题研究中的一个热点问题,对于生态环境急剧恶化的我国内陆干旱区,这一研究尤为紧迫.目前生态需水尚无明确统一的定义,研究方法也因人而异.归纳了已有的生态需水的相关概念和干旱区生态需水研究的主要成果、研究方法等.从概念主体角度,区分了生态需水、环境需水、生态环境需水之间的关系,并对     

我国灌区地下水调控研究现状及其发展态势

现代灌溉引水工程的发展,改善了灌区的农业用水条件,但同时改变了灌区上的自然生态环境、地质条件与水文地质条件等。分阶段总结了地下水的相关研究与应用;剖析了地下水调控的必要性与重要性;分析了地下水调控研究现状;最后通过总结给出了进一步研究的建议。     

我院教师文献信息需求调查与分析

作者对该院教师的文献信息使用及需求情况进行了９个方面的调查分析，其结果对学校教学科研的改革和深化具有现实的参考意义。     

运输系统的区域效应研究

运输系统改进—运距缩短—产业布局调整这一空间过程对不同的区域可能具有完全不同的意义。本文通过对一个两区域—两部门经济模型的研究得出结论:当较落后的资源产区与经济中心之间的距离由于运输系统的改进而缩短时,资源产区的经济结构向单一化转变,初级产品的生产和输出在经济建设中逐渐占主导地位,加工工业逐渐萎缩,地方经济发展受到阻碍,而且这种变化是在距离的某一特定值处突然出现的,带有跃变的性质。这一研究结果表明,对区域运输系统的任何改进措施都应该慎而行之,以免造成与本来目标相悖的区域效应。     

Selenium contamination in the Colorado River Basin, western USA： Remediation by leaching and nanof＇dtration membranes

Selenium （Se） is an essential micronutrient to biota, but can become a potent toxicant at elevated concentrations. The natural sources and chemical properties of Se species make the boundary between deficiency and toxicity narrow for some biota, with both phenomena common around the globe. Large areas of farmland in the Colorado River Basin （CRB） generate salinized drainage water with Se concentrations much higher than 5 μg/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chronic water-quality criterion for the protection of aquatic life. We have carried out detailed field and laboratory studies to investigate Se geochemistry and remediation in two of these areas： the Middle Green River Basin, Utah and the Salton Sea Basin, California, located respectively in the Upper and Lower CRB. Results from these and other studies show that approximately 90% of the dissolved Se in the Colorado River and its tributaries originally is derived from the Upper Cretaceous Mancos Shale and equivalent pyritic marine units that outcrop in the Upper CRB. Selenium is mobilized commonly by biogeochemical oxidation of this pyritic shale and is concentrated mainly as selenate （SeO4^2-） in soils and agricultural drainage water of dry climates by evaporation. Minor （0%-5%） amounts of Se are present as the selenite species （HSeO3^-） and （SEO3^2-）, but these species and the more reduced species, elemental Se （SeO） and selenide （Se^2-）, have much lower solubility and/or have high sorptive affinity towards organic matter, clay minerals and iron oxyhydroxides. The concentration of dissolved Se （-2.5 μg/L） and salinity in the Lower Colorado River water are among the highest of the world major rivers. Because of low precipitation （7 cm/a） and extreme evapotranspiration （-1.8 m/a） rates in the Salton Sea Basin, California, Se values in irrigation water imported from the Colorado River increase to 〉300 μg/L in drainage wastewater. Removal of Se from contaminated wastewater by nanofiltration membranes was demonstrated in laboratory and pilot-scale field experiments.     

On the relationship between historical land‐use change and water availability: the case of the lower Tarim River region in northwestern China

Natural ecosystems in the region of the lower Tarim River in northwestern China strongly deteriorated since the 1950s due to an expanding desertification. As a result, the downstream Tarim River reaches became permanently dry land. This historical evolution in land‐use change is typically the result of the anthropogenic impact on natural ecosystems. On the basis of a spatially distributed hydrological catchment model bidirectionally linked with a fully hydrodynamic MIKE11 river model, land‐use changes characterized by historical changes in leaf area index (LAI) of vegetation, as well as the evolution of irrigated surface areas, can be causally related to changes in water resources (groundwater storage and surface water resources). An increased surface area of irrigated (agricultural) land, together with a majority of inefficient irrigation methods, did lead to a strong increase of water resources consumption of the farmlands located in the upper Tarim River area. Evidently, this evolution influenced available water resources downstream in the Tarim basin. As a result, farmland has been gradually relocated to the upstream regions. This has led to reduced flows from the upper Tarim stream, which subsequently accelerated the dropping of the groundwater level downstream in the basin. This study moreover demonstrates that land surface biomass changes (cumulative LAI) along the lower Tarim River are strongly related to the changes in groundwater storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

次区域合作及其发展的成因——一个跨学科视角的分析

次区域合作诞生于20世纪80年代末、90年代初,但从一开始起对"次区域"及"次区域合作"的理解就存在许多不同的见解。同时由于次区域合作涉及边境地区,合作的领域又极其广泛,对次区域合作产生的成因没有定论。本文对"次区域"及"次区域合作"的定义重新做了界定,对次区域合作的分类及其相互影响、特征等作了阐述,并且从经济学、国际关系学、国际贸易学和地缘政治学等不同学科角度对次区域合作发展的成因进行了理论解释,以期促使我国更好的参与周边次区域合作。     

黄河下游引黄区沉沙处理运行方案分析研究*

黄河是多沙性河流,引黄必带进大量泥沙,沉沙池沉粗排细,能有效处理泥沙。当沉沙池淤满,失去自流沉沙作用时,采用"以挖待沉"可以延长灌区运行年限,但没有扬水沉沙方案优越。根据黄河下游地上河的特殊地貌条件,如果能在河漫滩上建沉沙池,可以解决沉沙占地的难题。