山东气候年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系

利用1951年以来65年的热带太平洋海表面温度数据和中国气温以及降水的站点观测资料,通过标准化处理和合成分析的方法,分析了山东气温和降水的季节气候特征及其年际变化,揭示了ENSO冷暖位相发展年及衰减年与山东气温和降水年际气候异常的关系。结果表明:在气温方面,山东地区春夏和秋冬季节温度分别呈经向和纬向分布,降水一年四季都表现为南多北少的特征;冬季鲁西北的气温年际变化在1°C以上,最为显著,而秋季气温的年际变化最不明显。对于降水的年际变化,夏季鲁西北、鲁南东部和胶州湾西部地区的年际变化最大,季节累计降水量异常最大达120mm以上,冬季降水年际变化最弱。ENSO对山东地区不同季节气温和降水异常强度的影响并非严格反对称,且存在显著的空间分布不均匀性;拉尼娜对山东气温年际变化的影响要比厄尔尼诺强、且影响范围广,厄尔尼诺对山东降水年际变化的影响更明显;厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜发展年和衰减年夏季对山东南部沿海地区(以青岛为例)气温正负变化的影响是反对称的,但是对内陆地区(以济南为例)而言,在厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜发展年冬季以及衰减年夏季两者对济南气温的影响是一致的;ENSO发展年夏季和秋季,厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜对南部沿海地区和内陆降水的影响不对称,但是对衰减年夏季降水的影响是反对称的。     

山东半岛近海不同粉砂粒级含量分布的空间差异性及其沉积学意义

粉砂是现代陆架和河口沉积物最主要的粒级组分,但由于其复杂的沉积动力学行为,我们对于不同粉砂粒级的沉积学特征和行为并没有完全掌握。本文分析了山东半岛近海表层沉积物中不同粉砂粒级组分含量的空间分布特征,探讨了其控制因素。结果表明,山东半岛周边近海沉积物类型以泥质沉积为主,但不同粉砂粒级组分具有明显的空间分布差异性。极细粉砂、细粉砂与黏土组分的含量变化一致,表明了其相似的沉积动力学行为。粗粉砂组分的含量空间变化最大,在山东半岛的北部泥质条带、东部“泥楔”和南部近岸具有明显的高含量,其含量与其他各粉砂组分具有明显的负相关性。从表层沉积物的粒度组分与分布规律,可以证明研究区表层沉积物主要以黄河携带物质为主,但流入本区的一些中小型河流也明显提供了部分物源,只是其提供物质的扩散范围有限。结合水动力分析和物理海洋学等方面的认识,我们认为造成不同粉砂组分空间分布差异性的原因主要受物源、区域水动力学条件、局部地形（底形）等因素控制。另外,还发现了山东半岛“泥楔”沉积物的粗粉砂组分含量偏高、现代沉积速率也偏大,这些现象在空间上与“海洋锋面”位置一致,对于海洋锋面的沉积学意义还需要进一步的调查研究和数值模拟工作。     

基于1993-2014年高度计数据的西北太平洋中尺度涡识别和特征分析

本文利用22年的AVISO卫星高度计融合数据,基于WA涡旋自动识别方法对西北太平洋的中尺度涡进行了识别追踪,并统计分析了研究区域中尺度涡的空间分布特征、运动属性以及季节和年际变化。研究结果表明:22年间共追踪到生命周期超过30 d的气旋涡3 841个,反气旋涡2 836个,气旋涡数量多于反气旋涡。涡旋大部分向西移动,西向传播的涡旋分布在整个研究区域,而东向传播的涡旋则集中在黑潮及其延伸区。涡旋主要存在15°~30°N的纬度带间;分别而言,气旋涡主要分布在研究区域的北部和南部,而反气旋涡主要分布在副热带逆流区。30°~35°N之间的黑潮延伸区具有明显更高的涡动能和涡振幅,与同纬度区域相比这里的涡旋半径也较高。在季节和年际变化上,春季出现的中尺度涡最多,夏季最少;对涡旋的月生成数目与ENSO指数MEI比较发现,西北太平洋涡旋活动变化并不直接与ENSO现象相关。     

Influence of environmental variability on distribution and relative abundance of baleen whales (suborder Mysticeti) in the Gulf of California

The Gulf of California (GC) is one of the most productive seas in the Pacific Ocean because of several oceanographic phenomena that support many marine mammal species, particularly of the cetacean order. The environmental variability of the GC was analysed during the cold and warm periods of 2005 and 2006 and its effects on the distribution and relative abundance of baleen whales using sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration. Satellite image analysis allowed us to detect important differences in both Chl a concentration and SST including cold to warm periods, even between the two cold periods and between the two warm periods. The cold periods had the highest number of whales: 99 individuals in 2005 and 183 in 2006, which were distributed along the entire gulf. Fewer animals were recorded in the warm period: 46 individuals in 2005 and 30 in 2006, which were mainly distributed in the northern part of the gulf. We concluded that SST influenced the relative abundance of baleen whales while Chl a concentration influenced their distribution.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Thailand

The average temperature of Thailand is projected to increase by 2-3 °C, and the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 25% and up to 50% in certain areas. The climate change in future is expected to provide changes in hydrological cycle and therefore impacts the groundwater resources too. In this study, we analyzed the general climate change trends and reviewed the groundwater conditions of Thailand. The climate changes, hydrologic variability and the impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability are also discussed based on a national groundwater monitoring program. Currently, there are 864 groundwater monitoring stations and 1 524 monitoring wells installed in Thailand. Moreover, the impact of climate change on groundwater-dependent systems and sectors is also discussed according to certain case studies, such as saline water intrusion in coastal and inland areas. Managing aquifer recharge and other projects are examples of groundwater adaptation project for the future.     

冬季黑潮延伸体海表温度对阿留申低压活动的双周期响应

Based on our previous work, the winter sea surface temperature(SST) in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) region showed significant variability over the past century with periods of ~6 a between 1930 and 1950 and ~10 a between1980 and 2009. How the activity of the Aleutian Low(AL) induces this dual-period variability over the two different timespans is further investigated here. For the ~6 a periodicity during 1930–1950, negative wind stress curl(WSC)anomalies in the central subtropical Pacific associated with an intensified AL generate positive sea surface height(SSH) anomalies. When these wind-induced SSH anomalies propagate westwards to the east of Taiwan, China two years later, positive velocity anomalies appear around the Kuroshio to the east of Taiwan and then the mean advection via this current of velocity anomalies leads to a strengthened KE jet and thus an increase in the KE SST one year later. For the ~10 a periodicity during 1980–2009, a negative North Pacific Oscillation-like dipole takes2–3 a to develop into a significant positive North Pacific Oscillation-like dipole, and this process corresponds to the northward shift of the AL. Negative WSC anomalies associated with this AL activity in the central North Pacific are able to induce the positive SSH anomalies. These oceanic signals then propagate westward into the KE region after 2–3 a, favoring a northward shift of the KE jet, thus leading to the warming of the KE SST. The feedbacks of the KE SST anomaly on the AL forcing are both negative for these two periodicities. These results suggest that the dual-period KE SST variability can be generated by the two-way KE-SST-AL coupling.     

Effect of spatial variability of shear strength on reliability of infinite slopes using analytical approach

This paper develops an analytical approach for reliability analysis of infinite slope stability in presence of spatially variable shear strength parameters. The analytical approach considers spatial autocorrelation of each parameter and cross-correlations between different parameters. It is robust, computational efficient and provides insight to the importance of spatial correlation scale on slope reliability analysis. This paper also explores the difference in continuous and discrete random fields and emphasizes the importance of fine discretization in relation to correlation scale. Finally, it shows that conditioning the stability analysis with information about trends and spatial data leads to reliability assessments with less uncertainty.     

Decadal Climate Prediction: Scientific Frontier and Challenge

The prediction of climate change in the future 10~30 year is a hot research area of the international community of the climate science, which has been listed as a core content of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and some other important international scientific projects. The forecast object of the decadal climate prediction has been extended from averaged state over the future 10~30 years to temporal evolutions in future 1~10 or 30 years. Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been preparing to issue climate states in the near future based on decadal climate prediction systems. Focusing on the cut-edging and challenging scientific questions of the decadal climate prediction, we reviewed the theoretic basis of the predictability of the decadal climate and recent progresses of the practical decadal prediction experiments by international modelling centers in the paper. Finally, we summarized the core scientific questions to be solved in the area and discuss ed possible pathways to improve the skills of the decadal climate prediction.     

Bearing capacity of spatially random rock masses obeying Hoek–Brown failure criterion

This paper presents a probabilistic analysis to compute the probability density function of the bearing capacity of a strip footing resting on a spatially varying rock mass. The rock is assumed to follow the generalised Hoek–Brown failure criterion. The uniaxial compressive strength of the intact rock (σc) was considered as a random field and the geological strength index was modelled as a random variable. The uncertainty propagation methodology employed in the analysis is the sparse polynomial chaos expansion. A global sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices was performed. Some numerical results were presented and discussed.     

GRACE监测青藏高原及邻区陆地水储量变化结果的可变性

结合4种不同的去相关滤波和2种平滑滤波,利用5组GRACE数据反演了青藏高原及邻区陆地水储量变化趋势,研究了结果的可变性。结果表明,采用S&W（P2M8）变宽度滑动窗口去条带效果较好,其结果中的湖水、冰川信号与卫星测高观测的信号位置具有较好的一致性。高斯滤波的异常幅值与扇形滤波相差10%~30%,平滑处理后异常幅值减少,观测分辨率降低,部分湖和冰川信号甚至消失。CSR/GFZ/JPL重力场模型反演的结果相近,但CSR去条带效果最好;JPL质量模型MAS/MAS_S的结果也相近,但在高原西部有较大差异。重力场模型与质量模型的结果相差很大。在利用GRACE卫星监测本地区陆地水储量变化时,推荐使用S&W（P2M8）去条带滤波器、CSR重力场模型数据。