溃变理论在滇东南暴雨预报中的应用

根据溃变原理的非规则结构分析方法,对红河州1980—2015年259场暴雨过程进行了检验分析、合成分析和预测应用,计算分析了超低温及低频重力波指数与暴雨出现的相关性。结果表明:暴雨前12~36h,(低涡)切变暴雨、孟湾风暴(南支槽)暴雨、副高外围暴雨、西行台风暴雨和辐合区暴雨在探空站的V-3θ结构信息图上分析出明显的先兆特征,集中表现为对流层高层出现超低温、3θ曲线的非均匀结构、中低层的充沛水汽条件和整体顺滚流;超低温越强,未来12~48h降雨也会增大,但是超低温现象出现频率较大,需配合其他条件判断暴雨的出现;低频重力波稳定指数与未来24h降雨存在显著负相关,即低频重力波稳定指数越小,降雨量越大,前24h的低频重力波稳定指数值对暴雨指示意义最强,当低频重力波稳定指数值为-0.2^-0.4时发生暴雨的频率最高。     

Gravitational lensing and the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect in the millimetre/submillimetre waveband

The intensity of the cosmic microwave background radiation in the fields of clusters of galaxies is modified by inverse Compton scattering in the hot intracluster gas — the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effect. The effect is expected to be most pronounced at a frequency of about 350 GHz (a wavelength of about 800 μm), and has been detected in the centimetre and millimetre wavebands. In the millimetre/submillimetre waveband, the gravitationally lensed images of distant dusty star-forming galaxies in the background of the cluster are predicted to dominate the appearance of clusters on scales of several arcsec, and could confuse observations of the SZ effect at frequencies greater than about 200 GHz (wavelengths shorter than about 1.5 mm). Recent observations by Smail, Ivison &38; Blain confirm that a significant population of confusing sources is present in this waveband. Previous estimates of source confusion in observations of the millimetre/submillimetre-wave SZ effect did not include the effects of lensing by the cluster, and so the accuracy of such measurements could be lower than expected. Source subtraction may be required in order to measure the SZ effect accurately, and a careful analysis of the results of an ensemble of SZ measurements could be used to impose limits to the form of evolution of distant dusty star-forming galaxies.     

Globular clusters as microlensing targets

We investigate the possibility of using globular clusters as targets for microlensing searches. Such searches will be challenging and require more powerful telescopes than now employed, but are feasible in the near future. Although expected event rates are low, we show that the wide variety of lines of sight to globular clusters greatly enhances the ability to distinguish between halo models using microlensing observations as compared with LMC/SMC observations alone. In particular, the halo core radius and power-law exponent can be determined with good accuracy.     

Spectroscopic confirmation of redshifts predicted by gravitational lensing

We present deep spectroscopic measurements of 18 distant field galaxies identified as gravitationally lensed arcs in a Hubble Space Telescope image of the cluster Abell 2218. Redshifts of these objects were predicted by Kneib et al. using a lensing analysis constrained by the properties of two bright arcs of known redshift and other multiply imaged sources. The new spectroscopic identifications were obtained using long exposures with the LDSS-2 spectrograph on the William Herschel Telescope, and demonstrate the capability of that instrument to reach new limits, R ≃24; the lensing magnification implies true source magnitudes as faint as R ≃25. Statistically, our measured redshifts are in excellent agreement with those predicted from Kneib et al.'s lensing analysis, and this gives considerable support to the redshift distribution derived by the lensing inversion method for the more numerous and fainter arclets extending to R ≃25.5. We explore the remaining uncertainties arising from both the mass distribution in the central regions of Abell 2218 and the inversion method itself, and conclude that the mean redshift of the faint field population at R ≃25.5 ( B ∼26–27) is low, 〈 z 〉=0.8–1. We discuss this result in the context of redshift distributions estimated from multicolour photometry. Although such comparisons are not straightforward, we suggest that photometric techniques may achieve a reasonable level of agreement, particularly when they include near-infrared photometry with discriminatory capabilities in the 1< z <2 range.     

A spectroscopic study of IRAS F10214 + 4724

The z  = 2.286  IRAS galaxy F10214 + 4724 remains one of the most luminous galaxies in the Universe, despite its gravitational lens magnification. We present optical and near-infrared spectra of F10214 + 4724, with clear evidence for three distinct components: lines of width ∼ 1000 km s⁻¹ from a Seyfert 2 nucleus; ≲ 200 km s⁻¹ lines which are likely to be associated with star formation; and a broad (∼ 4000 km s⁻¹) C  III ] 1909-Å emission line which is blueshifted by ∼ 1000 km s⁻¹ with respect to the Seyfert 2 lines. Our study of the Seyfert 2 component leads to several new results. (i) From the double-peaked structure in the Lyα line, and the lack of Lyβ, we argue that the Lyα photons have emerged through a neutral column of N _H ∼ 2.5 × 10²⁵ m⁻², possibly located within the AGN narrow-line region, as proposed for several high-redshift radio galaxies. (ii) The resonant O  VI 1032, 1036-Å doublet (previously identified as Lyβ) is in an optically thick (1:1) ratio. At face value this implies an extreme density ( n _e ∼ 10¹⁷ m⁻³) more typical of broad-line region clouds. However, we attribute this instead to the damping wings of Lyβ from the resonant absorption. (iii) A tentative detection of He  II 1086 suggests little extinction in the rest frame ultraviolet.     

The new gravitational lens system B1030 + 074

We report the discovery of a new double-image gravitational lens system, B1030 + 074, which was found during the Jodrell Bank–VLA Astrometric Survey (JVAS). We have collected extensive radio data on the system using the VLA, MERLIN, the EVN and the VLBA, and optical observations using WFPC2 on the HST . The lensed images are separated by 1.56 arcsec and their flux density ratio at centimetric wavelengths is approximately 14:1, although the ratio is slightly frequency-dependent and the images appear to be time-variable. The HST pictures show both the lensed images and the lensing galaxy close to the weaker image. The lensing galaxy has substructure which could be a spiral arm or an interacting galaxy. We have modelled B1030 + 074 using a singular isothermal ellipsoid which yields a time delay of 156/ h ₅₀ d. This lens is likely to be suitable for the measurement of the Hubble constant.     

An Inventory of Gravitational Microlenses Toward the Galactic Bulge

Although microlensing experiments toward the Galactic bulge were originally initiated to check the feasibility of the experiments, they have now become an important tool which allows one to investigate Galactic matter composition. However, previous determination of the lens mass function was not based on the actual number of lenses even for the well-determined population of stellar lenses, but rather on arbitrarily assumed functional forms such as power laws, and thus the derived mass functions were subject to large uncertainties. In this paper, we take a different approach in which we first estimate the event rate distribution expected from observationally well-constrained populations of lenses, and then test other possible lens populations. By comparing the determined event rate distribution Γ( t _E) for various mass function models of lens populations with the observed distribution, we find that stars and white dwarfs explain just ∼ 50 per cent of the total observed events even including very faint stars just above the hydrogen-burning limit. Additionally, the expected time-scale distribution of events caused by these known populations of lenses deviates significantly from the observed distribution, especially in the short time-scale region. However, if the rest of the dynamical mass of the bulge (∼ 2.1 × 10¹⁰ M) is composed of brown dwarfs, the expected event rate distribution matches the observation well.     

Chromatic and spectroscopic signatures of microlensing events as a tool for the gravitational imaging of stars

The detection of microlensing events from stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud and in the Galactic bulge raises important constraints on the distribution of dark matter and on galactic structure, although some events may be the result of a new type of intrinsic variability. When lenses are relatively close to the sources, we predict that chromatic and spectroscopic effects are likely to appear for a significant fraction of the microlensing events. These effects are due to the differential amplification of the limb and the centre of the stellar disc, and present a systematic dependence with wavelength and time that provides an unambiguous signature of a microlensing event (as opposed to a new type of intrinsic stellar variability). We present detailed predictions of the effects, using realistic model atmospheres. The observations of these effects provide a direct constraint on stellar atmospheres, allowing a three-dimensional reconstruction or imaging of its structure, a unique tool with which to test the current models of stellar atmospheres.     

Strong gravitational lensing by spiral galaxies

We investigate gravitational lensing using a realistic model of disc galaxies. Most of the mass is contained in a large spherical isothermal dark matter halo, but the potential is modified significantly in the core by a gravitationally dominant exponential disc. The method used is adapted from a very general multilens ray-tracing technique developed by Mo¨ller. We investigate the effects of the disc-to-halo mass ratio, the disc scalelength, the disc inclination to the line of sight and the lens redshift on two strong-lensing cross-sections: the cross-section for multiple imaging and the cross-section for large magnifications, in excess of a factor of 10. We find that the multiple-imaging cross-section can be enhanced significantly by an almost edge-on Milky Way disc compared with a singular isothermal sphere (SIS) in individual cases; however, when averaged over all disc inclinations, the cross-section is only increased by about 50 per cent. These results are consistent with other recent work. The presence of a disc, however, increases the inclination-averaged high-magnification cross-section by an order of magnitude compared with a SIS. This result has important implications for magnification bias in future lens surveys, particularly those in the submillimetre waveband, where dust extinction in the lensing galaxy has no effect on the brightness of the images.