Parallax microlensing events in the OGLE II data base toward the Galactic bulge

We present a systematic search for parallax microlensing events among a total of 512 microlensing candidates in the OGLE II data base for the  1997–1999  seasons. We fit each microlensing candidate with both the standard microlensing model and a parallax model that accounts for the Earth's motion around the Sun. We then search for the parallax signature by comparing the χ ² of the standard and parallax models. For the events which show a significant improvement, we further use the 'duration' of the event and the signal-to-noise ratio as criteria to separate true parallax events from other noisy microlensing events. We have discovered one convincing new candidate, sc33_4505, and seven other marginal cases. The convincing candidate (sc33_4505) is caused by a slow-moving, and likely low-mass, object, similar to other known parallax events. We found that irregular sampling and gaps between observing seasons hamper the recovery of parallax events. We have also searched for long-duration events that do not show parallax signatures. The lack of parallax effects in a microlensing event puts a lower limit on the Einstein radius projected on to the observer plane, which in turn imposes a lower limit on the lens mass divided by the relative lens–source parallax. Most of the constraints are however quite weak.     

Bayesian joint analysis of cluster weak lensing and Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect data

As the quality of the available galaxy cluster data improves, the models fitted to these data might be expected to become increasingly complex. Here we present the Bayesian approach to the problem of cluster data modelling: starting from simple, physically motivated parametrized functions to describe the cluster's gas density, gravitational potential and temperature, we explore the high-dimensional parameter spaces with a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampler, and compute the Bayesian evidence in order to make probabilistic statements about the models tested. In this way sufficiently good data will enable the models to be distinguished, enhancing our astrophysical understanding; in any case the models may be marginalized over in the correct way when estimating global, perhaps cosmological, parameters. In this work we apply this methodology to two sets of simulated interferometric Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect and gravitational weak lensing data, corresponding to current and next-generation telescopes. We calculate the expected precision on the measurement of the cluster gas fraction from such experiments, and investigate the effect of the primordial cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations on their accuracy. We find that data from instruments such as the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI), when combined with wide-field ground-based weak lensing data, should allow both cluster model selection and estimation of gas fractions to a precision of better than 30 per cent for a given cluster.     

Source–lens clustering effects on the skewness of the lensing convergence

The correlation between source galaxies and lensing potentials causes a systematic effect on measurements of cosmic shear statistics, known as the source–lens clustering (SLC) effect. The SLC effect on the skewness of lensing convergence, S ₃, is examined using a non-linear semi-analytic approach and is checked against numerical simulations. The semi-analytic calculations have been performed in a wide variety of generic models for the redshift distribution of source galaxies and power-law models for the bias parameter between the galaxy and dark matter distributions. The semi-analytic predictions are tested successfully against numerical simulations. We find the relative amplitude of the SLC effect on S ₃ to be of the order of  5–40  per cent. It depends significantly on the redshift distribution of sources and on the way in which the bias parameter evolves. We discuss possible measurement strategies to minimize the SLC effects.