Medium and short-term channel planform changes on the Rivers Tay and Tummel, Scotland

Channel planform change was analysed using a variety of data-sources for the medium-term (>25 years and <250 years) and short-term (<25 years) on a reach of the Rivers Tay and Tummel, Scotland. Map data were input into a Geographic Information System (GIS) and used to determine planform characteristics and changes in width, braiding index and sinuosity for the study reach between 1755 and 1976. Aerial photographs were utilised to determine the more recent changes that had taken place between 1971 and 1994. The analysis showed that significant changes had occurred over the medium term with a mean reduction in channel width of 34% for this period. These changes are comparable to those found in studies of similar European rivers for this period. Changes determined for the short-term displayed a continuance of this trend at a comparable rate of change. An analysis of flood frequency and magnitude, precipitation and discharge records for both periods does not show an associated decrease and therefore does not reflect the changes in channel planform. Evidence points towards flood embankment construction in the mid-1800s as the initial cause of channel change for the study reach which was later exacerbated by flow regulation. Incision and the subsequent stabilisation of lateral and mid-channel gravel bars by vegetation succession has resulted in an overall increase in the stability of the study reach which has persisted even where the embankments have fallen into disrepair.     

Identification of changes in floods and flood regimes in Canada using a peaks over threshold approach

Recent flood events in Canada have led to speculation that changes in flood behaviour are occurring; these changes have often been attributed to climate change. This paper examines flood data for a collection of 132 gauging stations in Canada. All of these watersheds are part of the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN), a group of gauging stations specifically assembled to assist in the identification of the impacts of climate change. The RHBN stations are considered to have good quality data and were screened to avoid the influences of regulation, diversions, or land use change. Daily flow data for each watershed are used to derive a peaks over threshold (POT) dataset. Several measures of flood behaviour are examined based on the POT data, which afford a more in‐depth analysis of flood behaviour than can be obtained using annual maxima data. Analysis is conducted for four time periods ranging from 50 to 80 years in duration; the latter period results in a much smaller number of watersheds that have data for the period. The changes in flood responses of the watersheds are summarized by grouping the watersheds by size (small, medium, and large) and also by hydrologic regime (nival, mixed, and pluvial). The results provide important insights into the nature of the changes that are occurring in flood regimes of Canadian rivers, which include more flood exceedances, reduced maximum flood exceedance magnitudes for snowmelt events, and earlier flood events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes to flood peaks of a mountain river: implications for analysis of the 2013 flood in the Upper Bow River,Canada

The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada, was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long‐term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest‐operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include flood events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100 years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is flooding in South Asia getting worse and more frequent?

South Asia is drained by some of the most flood‐prone rivers in the world. Flooding during the monsoon season is the most recurring, widespread and disastrous natural hazard in South Asia that results in enormous social, economic and environment consequences every year. Several massive floods have occurred in the recent decades causing huge economic losses and human suffering. On average, the total damage is close to USD 1 billion annually. To answer the question whether flooding in South Asia is getting worse and more frequent, all available data were considered: the annual peak discharge data for major rivers, post‐1985 information on floods from the global archive of large floods and palaeoflood records from nine Indian rivers. According to the global archive data, 372 large and 55 extreme flood events have occurred since 1985. Although there is no significant trend, all types of data point to clustering of large floods. Palaeoflood records show that modern floods (post‐1950) have higher flood levels than the late Holocene floods. Notwithstanding the limitations of data, there is enough evidence to conclude that (1) incidences of flood‐generating extreme rainfall event are rising and (2) human interventions have made the recent floods more destructive.     

Climate extremes in the United States: recent research by physical geographers

This paper reports our review of research on domestic climate extremes conducted by US physical geographers over the past 15?years. Sections cover extremes in wind, precipitation, lightning, and temperature, as well as derivative climate extremes (droughts, floods, and storm surges). Themes considered include: the spatial and temporal distribution of the climate extreme; its implications for our understanding of the physical processes that produce it; the spatial and temporal distributions of the extreme’s economic and human costs; lessons for assessment, policy, and management; and scale. We conclude that most of the works reviewed inadequately address the human basis of vulnerability to climate extremes, and encourage physical geographers to work with colleagues from the other subfields of geography and the social sciences to develop the holistic understanding of vulnerability needed to effectively adapt to the more extreme climate projected under climate change.     

A review of advances in flash flood forecasting

Flash flooding is one of the most hazardous natural events, and it is frequently responsible for loss of life and severe damage to infrastructure and the environment. Research into the use of new modelling techniques and data types in flash flood forecasting has increased over the past decade, and this paper presents a review of recent advances that have emerged from this research. In particular, we focus on the use of quantitative precipitation estimates and forecasts, the use of remotely sensed data in hydrological modelling, developments in forecasting models and techniques, and uncertainty estimates. Over the past decade flash flood forecast lead‐time has expanded up to six hours due to improved rainfall forecasts. However the largest source of uncertainty of flash flood forecasts remains unknown future precipitation. An increased number of physically based hydrological models have been developed and used for flash flood forecasting and they have been found to give more plausible results when compared with the results of conceptual, statistical, and neural network models. Among the three methods for deciding flash flood occurrence discussed in this review, the rainfall comparison method (flash flood guidance) is most commonly used for flash flood forecasting as it is easily understood by the general public. Unfortunately, no existing model is capable of making reliable flash flood forecasts in urban watersheds even though the incidence of urban flash flooding is increasing due to increasing urbanisation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suspended sediment transport during tropical‐cyclone floods in Fiji

Flow records, rising‐stage sediment samplers, and a sand suspension model are used to examine suspended sediment concentrations during major floods caused by tropical cyclones TC Joni and TC Kina in the Rewa River, Fiji. The highest concentrations of total suspended solids were measured during the early stages of TC Kina. The suspension model predicts higher sand concentrations for TC Kina compared with TC Joni because of the larger slope and higher shear stresses during Kina. Extremely high wash load concentrations early in TC Kina are at least partly due to remobilization of fine sediment deposited during the earlier TC Joni flood. Samples from the TC Kina had volumetric concentrations larger than 5%, indicating hyperconcentrated streamflows. Mass‐density shear stresses in the hyperconcentrated flows are up 1·6 times larger than clear‐water shear stresses, but they occur early during low stages of the flood and probably do not result in severe bed erosion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON FLASH FLOODS IN TARIM RIVER BASIN

Flashfloodsaretheimportanteventsofthehydrologicalregimeofriversinaridareas.IntheTarilncaver(Fig.1),northwesternChina,flashfledarebeingmonitored.TheobSerVeddataandinvestigationdemonstratethedifferenceintime,place,frequencyandintensityoftheiroccurrences.Therearethreet~offlagescommontotheThermcaverbasin.AlmOSteveryyea-rhighwateroccursinmonthesofJuly,AugUstandseptembercausedbyablationrunoff.However,themostdamagingflowSarefromoccasionalflashfindsbyinstenserainstormandglacierlakeoutburstflags(…     

Episodic flood inundations of the northern plains of Mars

Throughout the recorded history of Mars, liquid water has distinctly shaped its landscape, including the prominent circum-Chryse and the northwestern slope valleys outflow channel systems, and the extremely flat northern plains topography at the distal reaches of these outflow channel systems. Paleotopographic reconstructions of the Tharsis magmatic complex reveal the existence of an Europe-sized Noachian drainage basin and subsequent aquifer system in eastern Tharsis. This basin is proposed to have sourced outburst floodwaters that sculpted the outflow channels, and ponded to form various hypothesized oceans, seas, and lakes episodically through time. These floodwaters decreased in volume with time due to inadequate groundwater recharge of the Tharsis aquifer system. Martian topography, as observed from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter, corresponds well to these ancient flood inundations, including the approximated shorelines that have been proposed for the northern plains. Stratigraphy, geomorphology, and topography record at least one great Noachian-Early Hesperian northern plains ocean, a Late Hesperian sea inset within the margin of the high water marks of the previous ocean, and a number of widely distributed minor lakes that may represent a reduced Late Hesperian sea, or ponded waters in the deepest reaches of the northern plains related to minor Tharsis- and Elysium-induced Amazonian flooding.