CO2 Flux Estimation by Different Regression Methods from an Alpine Meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

CO2 efflux was estimated using different regression methods in static chamber observation from an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The CO2 efflux showed a seasonal pattern, with the maximun flux occurring in the middle of July. The temperature sensitivity of CO2 efflux (Q10> was 3.9, which was at the high end of the range of global values. CO2 emissions calculated by linear and nonlinear regression were significantly different (p<0.05). Compared with the linear regression, CO2 emissions calculated by exponential regression and quadratic regression were 12.7% and 11.2% larger, respectively. However, there were no significant differences in temperature sensitivity values estimated by the three methods. In the entire growing season, the CO2 efflux estimated by linear regression may be underestimated by up to 25% compared to the real CO2 efflux. Consequently, great caution should be taken when using published flux data obtained by linear regression of static chamber observations to estimate the regional CO2 flux in alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.     

Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.     

华北飑线系统中地闪活动与雷达回波顶高的关系及预警指标

选取代表华北地区经常出现的三类飑线系统--拖曳层状型(TS)、先导层状型(LS)、平行层状型(PS)的3次强雷暴过程为研究对象,利用天津塘沽多普勒雷达资料、京津冀ADTD型地闪监测网资料和北京探空资料,在对资料进行全面质量控制的基础上,运用粗网格化分析方法,分别以飑线系统整体和飑线系统上局部的强回波块为研究对象,探讨6分钟内地闪频数与雷达回波顶高的关系,找寻雷电预警指标.结果表明:3次过程中,出现在云顶达到8～12km 对流云塔中的地闪频数分别为85.8%、78.9%和80.5%;无论是在飑线系统整体,还是飑线系统上强回波块中,6分钟内地闪频数与对流云回波顶高高于11km或12km的回波面积有正相关关系;而且在飑线系统内的地闪活跃区,回波顶高高于11km的回波面积对地闪活动激烈程度具有预警意义.     

全球气候模式对宁夏区域未来气候变化的情景模拟分析

利用多个全球气候模式(GCM)的情景模拟结果分析只考虑温室气体效应的IS92a GG情景和同时考虑温室气体效应和硫化物气溶胶辐射效应的IS92aGS情景以及SRESA2、B2情景下宁夏区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的可能变化,并进行不确定性分析。气候基准时段(1961~1990年)模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明,GCM对宁夏气候具有一定的模拟能力;整体上讲,GCM对地面气温的模拟值偏低,对降水量的模拟值偏高,其中ECHAM4和HadCM3对宁夏基准时段地面气温和降水量的模拟结果与观测比较接近。各GCM模拟值的平均结果显示,4种温室气体排放情景下21世纪宁夏区域气温持续升高,至21世纪末宁夏升温幅度可达4~6℃,与全国平均的增温幅度大致相当;与升温趋势相应的是降水量的增加,但降水变化呈现出很大的波动性,至21世纪末宁夏的降水变化幅度可达10%~40%。各个GCM模拟的宁夏气候变化的总趋势是一致的,但各模式在不同情景下模拟结果的差异很大,存在较大的不确定性。     

Lunar Prospector measurements of secondary electron emission from lunar regolith

We present the first in situ measurements of the secondary electron emission efficiency of lunar regolith, utilizing Lunar Prospector measurements of secondary electrons emitted from the negatively charged night side and accelerated upward by surface electric fields. By comparing measurements of secondary currents emitted from the surface and incident primary electron currents, we find that the secondary yield of lunar regolith is a factor of ∼3 lower than that measured for samples in the laboratory. This lower yield significantly affects current balance at the lunar surface and the resulting equilibrium surface potentials. This information must be folded into models of the near-surface plasma sheath, in order to predict the effects on dust and other components of the lunar environment, and ultimately determine the importance for surface exploration and scientific investigations on the Moon.     

Detection and extraction of signals from the epoch of reionization using higher-order one-point statistics

Detecting redshifted 21-cm emission from neutral hydrogen in the early Universe promises to give direct constraints on the epoch of reionization (EoR). It will, though, be very challenging to extract the cosmological signal (CS) from foregrounds and noise which are orders of magnitude larger. Fortunately, the signal has some characteristics which differentiate it from the foregrounds and noise, and we suggest that using the correct statistics may tease out signatures of reionization. We generate mock data cubes simulating the output of the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) EoR experiment. These cubes combine realistic models for Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and the noise with three different simulations of the CS. We fit out the foregrounds, which are smooth in the frequency direction, to produce residual images in each frequency band. We denoise these images and study the skewness of the one-point distribution in the images as a function of frequency. We find that, under sufficiently optimistic assumptions, we can recover the main features of the redshift evolution of the skewness in the 21-cm signal. We argue that some of these features – such as a dip at the onset of reionization, followed by a rise towards its later stages – may be generic, and give us a promising route to a statistical detection of reionization.     

The bulk kinetic power of radio jets in active galactic nuclei

Based on the Königl's inhomogeneous jet model, we estimate the jet parameters, such as bulk Lorentz factor Γ, viewing angle θ and electron number density n _e from radio very long-baseline interferometry and X-ray data for a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) assuming that the X-rays are from the jet rather than the intracluster gas. The bulk kinetic power of jets is then calculated using the derived jet parameters. We find a strong correlation between the total luminosity of broad emission lines and the bulk kinetic power of the jets. This result supports the scenario that the accretion process is tightly linked with the radio jets, though how the disc and jet are coupled is not revealed by present correlation analysis. Moreover, we find a significant correlation between the bulk kinetic power and radio extended luminosity. This implies that the emission from the radio lobes is closely related with the energy flux transported through jets from the central part of AGNs.     

Gravitational lensing of anisotropic sources

In strong gravitational lensing, the multiple images we see correspond to light rays that leave the source in slightly different directions. If the source emission is anisotropic, the images may differ from conventional lensing predictions (which assume isotropy). To identify scales on which source anisotropy may be important, we study the angle δ between the light rays emerging from the source, for different lensing configurations. If the lens has a power-law profile   M ∝ R ^γ  , the angle δ initially increases with lens redshift and then either diverges (for a steep profile  γ < 1  ), remains constant (for an isothermal profile  γ= 1  ), or vanishes (for a shallow profile  γ > 1  ) as   z _l→ z _s  . The scaling with lens mass is roughly  δ∝ M ^1/(2−γ)  . The results for an Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) profile are qualitatively similar to those for a shallow power law, with δ peaking at about half the redshift of the source (not half the distance). In practice, beaming could modify the statistics of beamed sources lensed by massive clusters: for an opening angle  θ_jet  , there is a probability as high as   P ∼ 0.02–0.07(θ_jet/0.5°)⁻¹  that one of the lensed images may be missed (for  2 ≲ z _s≲ 6  ). Differential absorption within active galactic nuclei (AGNs) could modify the flux ratios of AGNs lensed by clusters; a sample of AGNs lensed by clusters could provide further constraints on the sizes of absorbing regions. Source anisotropy is not likely to be a significant effect in galaxy-scale strong lensing.