酒吧问题中的归纳推理问题研究

酒吧问题是参与者根据在过去时间t1,t2 ,t3,…tn 去酒吧的人数 ,然后归纳出在未来的任何时间tn +I(i≥ 1)将去酒吧的人数 ,是一个典型的动态博弈。我们可以通过对过去情况的归纳和对别人心理的猜测来作出决策这一方法分析社会现象。虽然使用这种方法并不一定有效 ,但能使我们通过归纳的方法获得关于这一现象的具有一定普遍性和规律性的认识。     

Does upward seepage of river water and storm water runoff determine water quality of urban drainage systems in lowland areas? A case study for the Rhine–Meuse delta

The water quality of urban drainage ditches in lowlands in the Rhine‐Meuse delta was analysed with principal component analysis (PCA) during a dry period and a rain storm, and related to the seepage of polluted river water and effective impervious area (EIA). This was done in order to test the hypothesis that seepage of river water and storm water runoff from impervious areas strongly determine the water quality of urban drainage systems along large lowland rivers. Our analysis revealed that upward seepage of groundwater originating from rivers Rhine and Meuse was positively correlated with nitrate, potassium, sodium and chloride and negatively correlated with alkalinity, calcium, magnesium and iron. EIA was correlated with very few environmental variables (i.e. phosphate, pH and iron in the dry period and iron during the rain storm). Nickel and zinc concentrations generally exceeded the maximum allowable concentrations (MAC), while lead and phosphorus concentrations were just above the nutrient standards and MAC in a few locations during the rain storm. To optimize water quality in urban water systems, attention should be paid to all sources of pollution and not only to EIA. The impact of local groundwater seepage originating from large rivers in lowlands on the chemistry of urban water systems is often underestimated and should be taken into account when assessing water quality and improving water quality status. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptive fuzzy controller design for dynamic positioning system of vessels

This paper develops an adaptive fuzzy controller for the dynamic positioning (DP) system of vessels with unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. The controller is designed by combining the adaptive fuzzy system with the vectorial backstepping method. An adaptive fuzzy system is employed to approximate the uncertain term induced by unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. It is theoretically proved that the proposed adaptive fuzzy DP controller can make the vessel be maintained at the desired values of its position and heading with arbitrary accuracy, while guaranteeing the uniform ultimate boundedness of all signals in the closed-loop DP control system of vessels. Simulation studies with comparisons on a supply vessel are carried out, and the results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.     

Governance fit for climate change in a Caribbean coastal-marine context

Coastal-marine systems in small island developing states of the Caribbean are highly vulnerable to both current and future climate change. Societies navigate these changes in part through processes of governance and the institutions through which governance takes place. The concept of institutional adaptive capacity is used to explore how governance processes and institutional arrangements can be adapted to match the scale and extent of climate change in a case study of the Soufriere Marine Management Area, St. Lucia. Institutional adaptive capacity is analyzed based on the following factors: institutional variety, analytical deliberation and nesting and networks. The analysis is based on 36 semi-structured interviews conducted with key informants from NGOs, cooperatives, management authorities and government agencies. The findings suggest that governance to address climate change in the case study is contingent upon developing holistic, integrated management systems, improving flexibility in existing collaborative decision making processes, augmenting the capacity of local management authorities with support from higher-level government, exploring opportunities for private–social partnerships, and developing adequate social–environmental monitoring programs. These findings have potential implications and lessons for similar settings throughout the Caribbean.     

墨西哥湾“深水地平线”溢油事故处理研究进展

2010年4月20日美国墨西哥湾"深水地平线"石油钻井平台发生爆炸,并引发大火,致使大量的原油(~500万桶)在深海(~1 500m)泄露,这场灾难造成了巨大的环境和经济损失,也对石油开采业的发展产生了负面影响。文中综述了此次事故溢出石油的总量,泄露速率以及测量相关数据中所涉及的技术及方法,对进一步研究溢油转移的趋势和转化过程具有指导意义。喷洒了6.6×106 L的消油剂,消油剂可以促使溢油的快速分散,同时也会给海洋生态系统造成一定的影响。该事故对墨西哥湾的植被和海洋生物有不同程度的影响,如沼泽植被、海水中的浮游动/植物、鱼类、贝类、珊瑚虫、迁徙鸟类,甚至是墨西哥湾大型底栖生物。此次溢油事故涉及各种不同的环境情况,为研究石油烃降解菌在溢油转移和降解过程中种群和群落的变化提供了一个独特的机会,消油剂处理过的溢油转化机理以及微生物降解过程中生物表面活性剂的产生与生物标志物以及微生物菌落的变化之间的关系,仍需要进一步的深入研究和探讨。     

Sustainability evaluation of different systems for sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) farming based on emergy theory

Emergy analysis is effective for analyzing ecological economic systems. However, the accuracy of the approach is af-fected by the diversity of economic level, meteorological and hydrological parameters...     

The PISA grammar decodes diverse human–environment approaches

Human–environment interactions are studied by several groups of scholars who have elaborated different approaches to describe, analyze, and explain these interactions, and eventually propose paths for management. The SETER project (Socio-Ecological Theories and Empirical Research) analyzed and compared how “flag-holders” of distinct school of thought in human–environment scholarship approached a number of empirical problems of environmental management. This paper presents the findings from this experiment by concentrating on how representatives of four schools of thought approached one of these case studies: the plant health crisis in greenhouse tomato production in south of France. Our analysis suggests that these approaches share a common conceptual vocabulary composed of four explanatory elements of change (Power, Incentives, System and Adaptation-PISA). We argue that what distinguishes these schools from one another is the syntax—the “rules” by which researchers in each of the sub-disciplines tend to organize the components of this shared conceptual vocabulary. In other words, the schools under scrutiny are differentiated not so much by what they speak of, but rather in what order, or hierarchy, do they tend to rank the importance and/or the sequence of each of these concepts in human–environment explanations. The results of our experiment support the view that communication and cooperation across the diverse human–environment traditions is possible and productive. At the same time, however, we argue that it is the distinctiveness of the claims yielded by these different schools of thought that augment our collective understanding of complex socio-ecological problems. Attempts to integrate these perspectives in one unitary approach would undermine the intellectual wealth necessary to meet the challenges of the Anthropocene.     

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EASTERN ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON SYSTEM BASED ON FUZZY SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL INVERSION FORECAST

Based on the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), methods to filter out the noise of impact factors from the main signal are discussed. Focusing on the abnormal weather conditions in 2010, we use the delay-relevant method to analyze the five members of the summer monsoon system that had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies from the observational data. ANFIS is suitable for research and simulation of subtropical highs that are difficult to describe accurately with dynamics, allowing the effect of five factors on the subtropical high anomalies to be examined. Our results show that the Mascarene cold high, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies. Diagnostic analysis, with genetic algorithms (GA) and dynamical reconstruction theory, reconstructed the nonlinear dynamical model of the subtropical high and its main factors objectively and accurately from the sequence of observations in 2010. Furthermore, a dynamically extended forecast experiment is performed. The forecasts for the subtropical high area index, the Mascarene cold high index, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough index all show a strong short-term effect over less than 25 days. The forecasting trend is accurate, and the error rate is no more than 7%. Our results provide new insight and methods for research on the association between the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system, and for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high index.     

Error analysis of proper motions in decination obtained for 807 Hipparcos stars from PZT observations over many decades

After publication of the Hipparcos catalogue (in 1997), a few new astrometric catalogues have appeared (TYCHO‐2, ARIHIP, etc.), as a good combination of the Hipparcos satellite and ground‐based data, to get more accurate coordinates and proper motions of stars than the Hipparcos catalogue ones. There are also investigations on improving the Hipparcos coordinates and proper motions by using the astrometric observations of latitude and universal time variations (via observed stars referred to Hipparcos catalogue), together with Hipparcos data, carried out during the last few years. These kind of ground‐based data were collected at the end of the last century by J. Vondrák. There are about 4.4 million optical observations made worldwide at 33 observatories and with 47 instruments during 1899.7–1992.0; our Belgrade visual zenith telescope data (for the period 1949.0‐1986.0) were included. First of all, these data were used to determine the Earth Orientation Parameters – EOP, but they are also useful for the opposite task – to check the accuracy of coordinates and proper motions of Hipparcos stars which were observed from the ground over many decades. Here, we use the latitude part of ten Photographic Zenith Tubes – PZT data (more than 0.9 million observations made at 6 observatories during the time interval 1915.8–1992.0), and combine them with the Hipparcos catalogue ones, with suitable weights, in order to check the proper motions in declination for 807 common PZT/Hipparcos stars (and to construct the PZT catalogue of μ_δ for 807 stars). Our standard errors in proper motions in declination of these stars are less than or equal to the Hipparcos ones for 423 stars. The mean value of standard errors of 313 stars observed over more than 20 years by PZT is 0.40 mas/yr. This is 53% of 0.75 mas/yr (the suitable value from the Hipparcos catalogue). We used the Least Squares Method – LSM with the linear model. Our results are in good agreement with the Earth Orientation Catalogue – EOC‐2 and the new Hipparcos ones. The main steps of the method and the investigations of systematic errors in determined proper motions (the proper motion differences with respect to the Hipparcos values, the EOC‐2 ones and the new Hipparcos ones, as a function of α, δ, and magnitude) are presented here. A comparison of the four catalogues by pairs shows that there is no significant relationship between the differences of their μ_δ values and magnitudes and color indices of the common 807 stars. All catalogues have relatively small random and systematic errors which are close to each other. However, the comparison shows that our formal errors are too small. They are underestimated by a factor of nearly 1.7 (for EOC‐2, it is 2.0) if we take the new Hipparcos (or Hipparcos) data as reference (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)