Dynamics of Axisymmetric Truncated Dynamo Models

An important question regarding the study of mean field dynamo models is how to make precise the nature of their underlying dynamics. This is difficult both because relatively little is known about the dynamical behaviour of infinite dimensional systems and also due to the numerical cost of studying the related partial differential equations. As a first step towards their understanding, it is useful to consider the corresponding truncated models. Here we summarise some recent results of the study of a class of truncated axisymmetric mean field dynamo models. We find conclusive evidence in these models for various types of intermittency as well as multiple attractors and final state sensitivity. We also find that the understanding of the underlying dynamics of such dynamo models requires the study of a new class of dynamical systems, referred to as the non-normal systems. Current work demonstrates that these types of systems are capable of a novel type of intermittency and also of relevance for the understanding of the full axisymmetric PDE dynamo models.     

Dynamical formulation of Broecker''s model for marine cycles of biologically incorporated elements

Broecker presented a steady-state, two-box model which emphasizes the role of kinetic factors in determining the chemical composition of sea water. Unlike thermodynamic models, Broecker's model suggests that sizable temporal variation in the composition of sea water and rates of sedimentation may have taken place in the past 100 million years. To describe the evolution of the ocean's chemical system and interpret variations observed in the sedimentary record, we have formulated a dynamical model. Mass-balance consideration leads to a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations. The equations are linearized and solved for step function changes in the rate of river input and in the rate of vertical mixing. This simple model of the ocean's chemical system is shown to be stable against oscillations. Using data for the modern ocean, the response times for P, C, Si, Ca, and Ba are calculated to be of the order of 10⁴ to 10⁶ yr for changes in river and other inputs and of the order 10¹ to 10² yr for a change in the rate of vertical mixing. Analog-simulation techniques, discussed for the situation of the two-box model, provide a powerful tool for treating nonlinearities and systems with more than two components. In the final section, consequences of the dynamical formulation are compared with parameters appearing in Broecker's steady-state formulation.     

Prediction of overland flow and seepage zones associated with the interaction of multiple infiltration devices (cascading infiltration devices)

Infiltration devices are traditionally evaluated as standalone entities that do not interact with each other. A model is outlined that will allow interactions between proposed infiltration devices to be predicted prior to a development commencing. The model allows prediction of seepage into downslope devices and the assessment of the locations where the combined ground‐water mound will reach the surface and result in overland flow. The volume of overland flow discharged by the seepage zone may exceed the overland and piped flow received by the infiltration devices. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

Evolution from a freshwater to saline lake: a climatic or hydrogeological change? The case of Gallocanta Lake (northeast Spain)

Sedimentological and hydrogeological studies are combined in order to investigate the environmental conditions of the lacustrine sedimentation during the Holocene in Gallocanta Lake in Spain. Six units have been identified in the sedimentary succession, based on sedimentological facies and mineralogy, and three depositional stages have been defined: (1) alluvial, (2) carbonate lake system, (3) ephemeral carbonate–saline lake system. The transition between stages 2 and 3 implies a reduction in water inflows to the lake. The δ¹³C isotopical analysis of dolomites points to decaying organic matter as a source of carbon for the dissolved inorganic carbon and evinces that the δ¹³C variations in the lake were probably controlled by organic processes. On the other hand, δ¹⁸O values could be controlled by modifications in the hydrological system and not necessarily by climatic changes. In this sense, from the hydrological study, three aquifers can be defined: Triassic, Jurassic–Cretaceous and Cenozoic aquifers. The lack of coincidence between the surface and subterranean watershed suggests that the transition between the second and third stages is controlled by a shift of the subterranean watershed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-term infrared variability of the UX Ori-type star SV Cep

We investigate the long-term optical–infrared variability of SV Cep and explain it in the context of an existing UX Ori (UXOR) model. A 25-month monitoring programme was completed with the Infrared Space Observatory in the 3.3–100 μm wavelength range. Following a careful data reduction, the infrared light curves were correlated with the variations of SV Cep in the V band. A remarkable correlation was found between the optical and the far-infrared light curves. In the mid-infrared regime, the amplitude of variations is lower, with a hint for a weak anti-correlation with the optical changes. In order to interpret the observations, we modelled the spectral energy distribution of SV Cep assuming a self-shadowed disc with a puffed-up inner rim, using a two-dimensional radiative transfer code. We found that modifying the height of the inner rim, the wavelength dependence of the long-term optical–infrared variations is well reproduced, except the mid-infrared domain. The origin of variation of the rim height might be fluctuation in the accretion rate in the outer disc. In order to model the mid-infrared behaviour, we tested adding an optically thin envelope to the system, but this model failed to explain the far-infrared variability. Infrared variability is a powerful tool to discriminate between models of the circumstellar environment. The proposed mechanism of variable rim height may not be restricted to UXOR stars, but might be a general characteristic of intermediate-mass young stars.     

Planetary migration to large radii

There is evidence for the existence of massive planets at orbital radii of several hundred au from their parent stars where the time-scale for planet formation by core accretion is longer than the disc lifetime. These planets could have formed close to their star and then migrated outwards. We consider how the transfer of angular momentum by viscous disc interactions from a massive inner planet could cause significant outward migration of a smaller outer planet. We find that it is in principle possible for planets to migrate to large radii. We note, however, a number of effects which may render the process somewhat problematic.     

Glacier inventory of the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in the Southern Andes and glacier changes observed during recent decades

The Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) forms an isolated ice cap on the Península Muñoz Gamero (PMG) located 200 km to the south of the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI). We present a glacier inventory of the GCN made up by 27 drainage basins (in total 199.5 km²) and other small cirque and valley glaciers of the southern part of PMG (in total 53 km²). The glacier inventory is based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and ortho-photos. Contour lines from maps, relief information derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery from 1986 and 2002 and stereoscopic data from aerial photos were combined in a knowledge-based scheme to obtain a DEM of the area. A digital ortho-photo map based on aerial photos from 1998 and several ortho-photos based on aerial photos from 1942 and 1984 could be produced from the initial DEM. A geographical information system (GIS) served to outline the extent of the present glaciation. All major glaciers of the GCN show a significant glacier retreat during the last 60 yr. Some of the outlet glaciers lost more than 20% of their total area during this period. Overall glacier retreat amounts to 2.8% of glacier length per decade and the glacier area loss is 2.4% per decade in the period from 1942 to 2002. We hypothesise that GCN glaciers may have reacted faster and more synchronously with the observed warming trend during recent decades when compared with the SPI.     

新疆天山北坡一次区域性暴雪形成机制及水汽输送特征分析

利用高空、地面常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，诊断分析了2017年2月新疆天山北坡一次区域性暴雪过程的特征及成因，结合GDAS再分析资料并采用HYSPLIT模式，模拟追踪水汽源地、主要水汽输送通道及其对水汽输送的贡献。结果表明：此次天山北坡暴雪是在典型后倾结构的高低空系统配置下产生的，中、高纬地区短波槽在东移过程中同位相叠加，为暴雪长时间维持提供了稳定的天气尺度背景；暴雪发生时位势不稳定性加强，中低层持续冷垫抬升是主要的动力机制，较强垂直风切变是降雪强度较大的重要原因，高低空急流耦合激发中尺度垂直上升支和次级环流圈，地形作用对暴雪有增幅作用；暴雪主要水汽源地位于阿拉伯半岛西侧的红海和伊朗高原西南侧的波斯湾至阿拉伯海北部一带，水汽通道主要集中在500～850 hPa，水汽辐合区位于700～850 hPa，中高层有偏西气流、中层有西南气流、低层有西北急流将水汽接力输送至暴雪区；利用HYSPLIT模式模拟发现，暴雪期间，西、东、南边界水汽输入均起重要作用，主要水汽输送通道分别为偏西路径、偏西南路径、局地水汽路径，1500 m高度的追踪，三者贡献率大致相当，3000 m高度，局地水汽和偏西路径水汽贡献率更大。     

Reconstruction of fire spread within wildland fire events in Northern Eurasia from the MODIS active fire product

Russian boreal forests have been reshaped by wildland fire for millennia. While fire is a natural component of boreal ecosystems, it impacts various aspects of the environment and affects human well-being. Often fires occur over large remote areas with limited access, which makes their ground-based observation difficult. A significant progress has been made in mapping burned area from satellite imagery, which provides consistent and fairly unbiased estimates of fire impact on areas of interest at multiple scales. Although the information provided by burned area products is highly important, the spatio-temporal dynamics of individual fire events and their impact are less known. In high northern latitudes of Northern Eurasia, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) makes up to four daily observations from each of the Terra and Aqua satellites providing consistent data on fire development with high temporal frequency. Here we introduce an approach to reconstruct the development of fire events based on active fire detections from MODIS. Fire Spread Reconstruction (FSR) provides a means for characterization of fire occurrence over large territories from remotely sensed data. Individual fire detections are clustered within a GIS environment based on a set of rules determining proximity between fire observations in space and time. FSR determines the number of fire events, their approximate size, duration, and fire spread rate and allows for the analysis of fire occurrence and spread as a function of vegetation, fire season, fire weather and other parameters. FSR clusters were compared to burned scars mapped from Landsat7/ETM+ imagery over Yakutia (Russia). While some smaller burn scars were found to be formed through a continuous burning of a single fire event, large burned areas in Siberia were created by a constellation of fire events incorporating over 100 individual fire clusters. Geographic regions were found to have a stronger influence on the rates of fire activity in the area compared to vegetation zones. In addition, fire spread rates do not directly correlate with the intensity of a given fire season. FSR is also used to identify the points of ignition for individual fire events in spatio-temporal domain for fire danger and fire threat modeling. This approach presents another step towards the more complete characterization of fire events from remotely sensed data.