Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用

Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法，将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报，取得了较为理想的成果。预测试验的结果表明，该预测模型有较高计算精度，尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测；对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测，在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后，亦可获到较为理想的预测结果。可以认为，该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求，Local Modeling方法的应用，将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径。     

关注我国“工业测量”事业的发展

尝试给出工业测量的定义、范畴、目标的分类和多样性,简要叙述工业测量手段的多样性,列举待研制和待改进的工业测量集成系统的名称以及所依托的几何传感器的类别。     

基于通量均衡基准的地壳垂直形变场分析模型

根据全球通量均衡假说建立了地壳垂直形变场的分析模型，在球面近似下求得了该模型的球谐函数级数解并拟合了两个不同区域的地壳垂直形变场，编绘了等值线图，继而在密切平面坐标系下导出了该模型的Fourier级数解。结果表明，该方法不仅具有几何意义，而且具有一定的地球动力学意义。     

A Local Example of Land‐Use Change: Southern Illinois—1807, 1938, and 1993*

This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest.     

The gravity field and GGOS

The gravity field of the earth is a natural element of the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS). Gravity field quantities are like spatial geodetic observations of potential very high accuracy, with measurements, currently at part-per-billion (ppb) accuracy, but gravity field quantities are also unique as they can be globally represented by harmonic functions (long-wavelength geopotential model primarily from satellite gravity field missions), or based on point sampling (airborne and in situ absolute and superconducting gravimetry). From a GGOS global perspective, one of the main challenges is to ensure the consistency of the global and regional geopotential and geoid models, and the temporal changes of the gravity field at large spatial scales. The International Gravity Field Service, an umbrella “level-2” IAG service (incorporating the International Gravity Bureau, International Geoid Service, International Center for Earth Tides, International Center for Global Earth models, and other future new services for, e.g., digital terrain models), would be a natural key element contributing to GGOS. Major parts of the work of the services would, however, remain complementary to the GGOS contributions, which focus on the long-wavelength components of the geopotential and its temporal variations, the consistent procedures for regional data processing in a unified vertical datum and Terrestrial Reference Frame, and the ensuring validations of long-wavelength gravity field data products.     

Cause of winter gravity wave spectrum saturation

Gravity waves play a significant role in establishing the large-scale circulation and structure of the middle atmosphere. Through gravity wave saturation proc-esses, such motions are believed to cause turbulence, resulting in divergence of momentum flux and the diffusion of heat and constituents in the meso-sphere[1,2]. The mechanisms that contribute signifi-cantly to the gravity wave saturation are thought to be the dynamical and convective instabilities[3]. However, it is difficult to distin…     

Pressure sensitivity of olivine slip systems: first-principle calculations of generalised stacking faults

We have used a first-principle approach based on the calculation of generalised stacking faults (GSF) to study the influence of pressure on the mechanical properties of forsterite. Six cases corresponding to [100] glide over (010), (021) and (001), and [001] glide over (100), (010) and (110) have been considered. The relaxed energy barriers associated with plastic shear have been calculated by constraining the Si atoms to move perpendicular to the fault plane and allowing Mg and O atoms to move in every direction. These conditions, which preserve dilations as a relaxation process, introduce Si–O tetrahedral tilting as an additional relaxation mechanism. Relaxed GSF show little plastic anisotropy of [100] glide over different planes and confirms that [001] glide is intrinsically easier than [100] glide. The GSF are affected by the application of a 10 GPa confining pressure with a different response for each slip system that cannot be explained by sole elastic effect. In particular, [100](010) is found to harden significantly under pressure compared to [001](010). Our results give the first theoretical framework to understand the pressure-induced change of dominant slip systems observed by Couvy et al. (in Eur J Mineral 16(6):877–889, 2004) and P. Raterron et al. (in GRL, submitted). It appears necessary to account for the influence of pressure on the mechanical properties of silicates in the context of the deep Earth.     

9: Processes of tectonism, magmatism and mineralization: Lessons from Europe

Metallogenic provinces in Europe range in age from the Archaean to the Neogene. Deposit types include porphyry copper and epithermal Cu–Au, volcanic-hosted massive sulphide (VMS), orogenic gold, Fe-oxide–Cu–Au, anorthosite Fe–Ti-oxide and sediment-hosted base-metal deposits. Most of them formed during short-lived magmatic events in a wide range of tectonic settings; many can be related to specific tectonic processes such as subduction, hinge retreat, accretion of island arcs, continental collision, lithosphere delamination or slab tear. In contrast, most sediment-hosted deposits in Europe evolved in extensional, continental settings over significant periods of time. In Europe, as elsewhere, ore formation is an integral part of the geodynamic evolution of the Earth's crust and mantle. Many tectonic settings create conditions conducive to the generation of water-rich magma, but the generation of ore deposits appears to be restricted to locations and short periods of change in temperature and stress, imposed by transitory plate motions. Crustal influence is evident in the strong structural controls on the location and morphology of many ore deposits in Europe. Crustal-scale fault–fracture systems, many involving strike-slip elements, have provided the fabric for major plumbing systems. Rapid uplift, as in metamorphic core complexes, and hydraulic fracturing can generate or focus magmatic–hydrothermal fluid flow that may be active for time spans significantly less than a million years. Once a hydrologically stable flow is established, ore formation is strongly dependent on the steep temperature and pressure gradients experienced by the fluid, particularly within the upper crust. In Europe, significant fracture porosity deep in the crystalline basement (1%) is not only important for magmatic–hydrothermal systems, but allows brines to circulate down through sedimentary basins and then episodically upward, expelled seismically to produce sediment-hosted base-metal deposits and Kupferschiefer copper deposits. Emerging research, stimulated by GEODE, can improve the predicting power of numerical simulations of ore-forming processes and help discover the presence of orebodies beneath barren overburden.     

Numerical simulation of percussive drilling

This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integration of aquifer geology,groundwater flow and arsenic distribution in deltaic aquifers – A unifying concept

Groundwater arsenic (As) presents a public health risk of great magnitude in densely populated Asian delta regions, most acutely in the Bengal Basin (West Bengal, India and Bangladesh). Research has focused on the sources, mobilisation, and heterogeneity of groundwater As, but a consistent explanation of As distribution from local to basin scale remains elusive. We show for the Bengal Aquifer System that the numerous, discontinuous silt‐clay layers together with surface topography impose a hierarchical pattern of groundwater flow, which constrains As penetration into the aquifer and controls its redistribution towards discharge zones, where it is re‐sequestered to solid phases. This is particularly so for the discrete periods of As release to groundwater in the shallow subsurface associated with sea level high‐stand conditions of Quaternary inter‐glacial periods. We propose a hypothesis concerning groundwater flow ( S ilt‐clay layers I mpose H ierarchical groundwater flow patterns constraining A rsenic progression [SIHA]), which links consensus views on the As source and history of sedimentation in the basin to the variety of spatial and depth distributions of groundwater As reported in the literature. SIHA reconciles apparent inconsistencies between independent, in some cases contrasting, field observations. We infer that lithological and topographic controls on groundwater flow, inherent to SIHA, apply more generally to deltaic aquifers elsewhere. The analysis suggests that groundwater As may persist in the aquifers of Asian deltas over thousands of years, but in certain regions, particularly at deeper levels, As will not exceed low background concentrations unless groundwater flow systems are short‐circuited by excessive pumping.