The Epi－continental arc of Southeast China and relevant earthquakes

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Evolution of cool skin and direct air-sea gas transfer coefficient during daytime

Absorption of solar radiation within the thermal molecular sublayer of the ocean can modify the temperature difference across the cool skin as well as the air-sea gas transfer. Our model of renewal type is based on the assumption that the thermal and diffusive molecular sublayers below the ocean surface undergo cyclic growth and destruction, the heat and gas transfer between the successive burst events are performed by molecular diffusion. The model has been upgraded to include heating due to solar radiation. The renewal time is parameterized as a function of the surface Richardson number and the Keulegan number. A Rayleigh number criterion characterizes the convective instability of the cool skin under solar heating. Under low wind speed conditions, the solar heating can damp the convective instability, strongly increasing the renewal time and correspondingly decreasing the interfacial gas exchange. In the ocean, an additional convective instability caused by salinity flux due to evaporation becomes of importance in such cases. The new parameterization is compared with the cool skin data obtained in the western equatorial Pacific during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment in February 1993. In combination with a model of the diurnal thermocline it describes main features of the field data both in nighttime and daytime. Under low wind speed conditions (< 5 m s^-1) diurnal variations of the sea surface temperature due to the formation of a diurnal thermocline were substantially larger than those across the cool skin. Under wind speeds > 5 m s^-1, diurnal variations of the surface temperature due to the variations of the thermal molecular sublayer become more important.     

Estimation of statistical parameters for censored lognormal hydraulic conductivity measurements

Field tests of hydraulic conductivity (e.g., injection test, pumping test, etc.) in low permeability formations are subject to censoring due to the detection limit of the instruments used. An iterative method of estimating the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data with a presumed log-normal distribution function is presented. This method accounts for the data that are actually below the lower detection limit (called truncated data) and thus gives distribution parameters that are more representative for the underlying distribution. The proposed method is then tested on two simulated normally distributed random datasets having different variances. The results show that the means and variances estimated by the proposed method are very accurate. Finally, the method is used to estimate the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data from single hole water injection tests in a fractured geological formation.     

Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.     

The arrangement in mean elements space of the periodic orbits close to that of the Moon

In a simplified model of the Earth-Moon-Sun system based on the restricted circular 3-dimensional 3-body problem, it is possible to find numerically a set of 8 periodic orbits whose time evolutions closely resemble that of the Moon's orbit. These orbits have a period of 223 synodic months (i.e. the period of the Saros cycle known for more than two millennia as a means of predicting eclipses), and are characterized by a secular rotation of the argument of perigee . Periodic orbits of longer durations exhibiting this last feature are very abundant in Earth-Moon-Sun dynamical models. Their arrangement in the space of the mean orbital elements- for various values of the lunar mean motion is presented.     

Global climatic change – the latest scientific understanding

IPCCs statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this detection statement is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the detection statement from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described.     

Carbon, sulfur and O2 across the Permian–Triassic boundary

A model for the carbon and sulfur cycles across the Permian–Triassic boundary has been constructed from carbon and sulfur isotopic data. Results indicate a drop in global organic matter burial, the formation of an anoxic deep ocean, and a large drop in atmospheric oxygen over the time span 270 to 240 Ma. Much of these changes were probably due to a drop in terrestrial productivity and preservation and an increase in global aridity.     

Forests, climate, and silicate rock weathering

Over time periods of 10⁶ years and longer, atmospheric carbon dioxide content is largely controlled by a balance between silicate rock weathering and CO₂ sources (degassing from the Earth plus net organic carbon oxidation). Vegetation cover can affect silicate rock weathering rates by increasing soil CO₂ content, stabilizing soil cover, and producing organic acids. Forests absorb more solar radiation than most other ecosystems; this tends to warm Earth's climate, especially outside of the tropics; this warmth would tend to increase silicate rock weathering rates. Here, we develop preliminary parameterizations of this effect that could be incorporated into carbonate–silicate cycle models, based on the results of general circulation model simulations.     

Fault slip analysis of Quaternary faults in southeastern Korea

The Quaternary stress field has been reconstructed for southeast Korea using sets of fault data. The subhorizontal direction of the maximum principal stress (σ₁) trended ENE and the direction of the minimum principal stress (σ₃) was nearly vertical. The stress ratio (Φ = (σ₂ − σ₃) / (σ₁ − σ₃)) value was 0.65. Two possible interpretations for the stress field can be made in the framework of eastern Asian tectonics; (1) The σ_Hmax trajectory for southeast Korea fits well with the fan-shaped radial pattern of maximum principal stress induced by the India–Eurasia collision. Thus, we suggest that the main source for this recent stress field in southeast Korea is related to the remote India–Eurasia continental collision. (2) The stress field in Korea shows a pattern similar to that in southwestern Japan. The origin for the E–W trending σ_Hmax in Japan is known to be related to the mantle upwelling in the East China Sea. Thus, it is possible that Quaternary stress field in Korea has evolved synchronously with that in Japan. We suggest further studies (GPS and in situ stress measurement) to test these hypotheses.     

Measurement of the total nitrogen in lake sediments： Comparison and its environmental significance

Nitrogen cycle is an important bio-geochemical process in the environment. Measurement of the total nitrogen （TN） is a routine experiment in agriculture, biology and environmental sciences. The Kjeldahl method （KM） and elemental analyzer method （EA） are both commonly used to determine TN. Total nitrogen by EA is the sum of nitrate （NO3）, nitrite （NO2）, organic nitrogen and ammonia. Total nitrogen by KM （TKN） is made up of both organic nitrogen and ammonia. A comparative study focused on the two methods is conducted by analysis of TN in 97 samples from the sediment sequence of Gouchi, a salt lake in North China. KM presents a higher degree of accuracy than EA with a standard deviation of 0.007 vs. 0.024. With the presence of nitrate and/or nitrite nitrogen, however, measurement by KM is considerably lower than that by EA. Therefore, for samples from lake sediment sequences or soils in North China, KM is inapplicable to determining TN because of usually high contents of nitrous salt. Despite the inconsistency, use of both methods to the same samples makes sense in reconstructions of climatic and environmental changes from lake sediments. In Lake Gouchi, the contents of nitrate and nitrite nitrogen vary from 1.40% in the lower part of the sequence to 14.77% in the uppermost part, suggesting a gradual evolution process from a fresh water lake to the present-day salt lake.