Quasi-periodic geomagnetic secular variation (from 1985–2005 world observatory data)

We have discovered a 2–4 year periodicity in geomagnetic secular variation (SV) from data of 110 world magnetic observatories. The periodicity in the horizontal component (H) is most prominent and appears to be globally uniform in different regions, on all continents, and in both hemispheres. The quasi-periodic short-wavelength variations show up in the vertical component (Z) as well but locally superpose on long-wavelength regional anomalies. We presume that the short-period fluctuations may be produced by instability of the eccentric dipole (ED) axis proceeding from the analysis of the SV field and optimization modeling of the dipole field with varied ED parameters.     

Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4 D variational(4 D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model(ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer(T_e), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level(SL) variation.The strength of the thermocline effect on SST(referred to simply as "the thermocline effect") is represented by an introduced parameter, αT_e. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4 D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only,and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling.The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4 D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4 D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.     

地理系统模型研究进展

地理系统是多圈层交互的复杂巨系统。地理系统模型是理解和预测不同尺度地理系统格局和过程变化最重要的研究方法。地理系统模型作为可持续发展科学决策必需的工具,是自然地理学重要的研究方向。过去几十年来,在全球变化等全球性重大环境问题和人类科学决策需求的推动下,地理系统模型虽然发展迅速,但还不足以准确地模拟和预测复杂人地耦合系统。本文分别从模型原理、框架和尺度等方面回顾与梳理了地理系统模型从单要素到多要素、从统计到过程、从静态到动态、从单点到区域和全球尺度模拟等发展历程,并总结了地理系统模型对发展人类—自然耦合系统以及模型—数据融合系统的趋势。发展中国的地理系统模型将有助于中国和全球可持续发展的科学决策。     

人地系统耦合框架下的生态系统服务

生态系统服务是连接自然环境与人类福祉的桥梁,是人地系统耦合研究的核心内容。本文在构建生态系统服务与人地系统耦合研究框架的基础上,系统梳理了生态系统服务评估、生态系统服务权衡、生态系统服务影响因素、生态系统服务供给流动与需求等研究前沿,提出了未来生态系统服务研究的重点领域。主要研究结论认为：①国际生态系统服务模型发展迅速,SAORES模型是中国生态系统服务模型优化与参数本地化的突出代表;②生态系统服务权衡具有相对复杂的时空尺度,权衡分析的前提是辨析不同尺度生态系统结构—过程—功能—服务的作用机制;③自然因素是生态系统服务时空分布的基础,土地利用能改变生态系统结构、功能与生态系统服务变化,社会经济因素会导致生态系统服务权衡的差异;④为明晰生态系统服务供给与需求耦合关系,需进一步识别生态系统服务流的运移路径;⑤未来生态系统服务研究需加强生态系统服务对全球变化的响应特征和机制分析、面向可持续发展目标的生态系统服务供给流动与需求研究、生态系统服务的动态评价集成与优化、生态系统服务与人地系统耦合、生态系统服务与大数据集成等。     

拖曳锚在海床中运动特性的大变形有限元分析

拖曳锚由于其承载性能和深水中便于安装被广泛应用于海洋工程系泊系统中,如:适用于悬链式系泊系统的传统拖曳锚和适用于绷紧式系泊系统的法向承力锚。拖曳锚安装过程中涉及诸多运动特性:锚板运动方向、系缆点处拖曳力和拖曳角及运动轨迹。基于大变形有限元分析技术耦合的欧拉-拉格朗日法,并引入缆绳方程,建立起锚-缆绳-海床土耦合作用的有限元分析模型;模拟了拖曳锚在均质和线性强度黏土中的嵌入安装过程,研究了锚板运动方向、系缆点处拖曳力和拖曳角及运动轨迹等运动特性;通过与已有的有限元分析方法及理论方法进行对比,验证了该分析模型的有效性;与已有的有限元分析方法相比,提出的分析模型有效地提高了计算效率。     

A comprehensive assessment framework for attributing trends in streamflow and groundwater storage to climatic and anthropogenic changes: A case study in the typical semi-arid catchments of southern India

The clearest signs of hydrologic change can be observed from the trends in streamflow and groundwater levels in a catchment. During 1980–2007, significant declines in streamflow (−3.03 mm/year) and groundwater levels (−0.22 m/year) were observed in Himayat Sagar (HS) catchment, India. We examined the degree to which hydrologic changes observed in the HS catchment can be attributed to various internal and external drivers of change (climatic and anthropogenic changes). This study used an investigative approach to attribute hydrologic changes. First, it involves to develop a model and test its ability to predict hydrologic trends in a catchment that has undergone significant changes. Second, it examines the relative importance of different causes of change on the hydrologic response. The analysis was carried out using Modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model coupled with a lumped groundwater model for each sub- catchment. The model results indicated that the decline in potential evapotranspiration (PET) appears to be partially offset by a significant response to changes in rainfall. Measures that enhance recharge, such as watershed hydrological structures, have had limited success in terms of reducing impacts on the catchment-scale water balance. Groundwater storage has declined at a rate of 5 mm/y due to impact of land use changes and this was replaced by a net addition of 2 mm/y by hydrological structures. The impact of land use change on streamflow is an order of magnitude larger than the impact of hydrological structures and about is 2.5 times higher in terms of groundwater impact. Model results indicate that both exogenous and endogenous changes can have large impacts on catchment hydrology and should be considered together. The proposed comprehensive framework and approach demonstrated here is valuable in attributing trends in streamflow and groundwater levels to catchment climatic and anthropogenic changes.     

Lateral terrestrial water flow contribution to summer precipitation at continental scale – A comparison between Europe and West Africa with WRF-Hydro-tag ensembles

It is well accepted that summer precipitation can be altered by soil moisture condition. Coupled land surface – atmospheric models have been routinely used to quantify soil moisture – precipitation feedback processes. However, most of the land surface models (LSMs) assume a vertical soil water transport and neglect lateral terrestrial water flow at the surface and in the subsurface, which potentially reduces the realism of the simulated soil moisture – precipitation feedback. In this study, the contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to summer precipitation is assessed in two different climatic regions, Europe and West Africa, for the period June–September 2008. A version of the coupled atmospheric-hydrological model WRF-Hydro with an option to tag and trace land surface evaporation in the modelled atmosphere, named WRF-Hydro-tag, is employed. An ensemble of 30 simulations with terrestrial routing and 30 simulations without terrestrial routing is generated with random realizations of turbulent energy with the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme, for both Europe and West Africa. The ensemble size allows to extract random noise from continental-scale averaged modelled precipitation. It is found that lateral terrestrial water flow increases the relative contribution of land surface evaporation to precipitation by 3.6% in Europe and 5.6% in West Africa, which enhances a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback and generates more uncertainty in modelled precipitation, as diagnosed by a slight increase in normalized ensemble spread. This study demonstrates the small but non-negligible contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to precipitation at continental scale.     

在线液 - 液萃取微型万用分相器的设计和应用 Ⅲ.流动注射液液萃取电感耦合等离子体原子发射光谱测定矿石中钼和钨

设计的在线液液萃取分相器及相应流路系统与电感耦合等离子体原子发射光谱联用具有良好的分析性能。用于测定地质样品中的Ｍｏ和Ｗ，检出限（３σ）分别为３６μｇ／Ｌ和２８μｇ／Ｌ，两元素在０～２．０ｍｇ／Ｌ有良好的线性。对于１ｍｇ／Ｌ的Ｍｏ和Ｗ的测定，ＲＳＤ（ｎ＝７）分别为４０％和２７％，测定速率为２５～３０／ｈ。     

A continuum‐discrete model using Darcy's law: formulation and verification

This paper presents a numerical scheme for fluid‐particle coupled discrete element method (DEM), which is based on poro‐elasticity. The motion of the particles is resolved by means of DEM. While within the proposition of Darcian regime, the fluid is assumed as a continuum phase on a Eulerian mesh, and the continuity equation on the fluid mesh for a compressible fluid is solved using the FEM. Analytical solutions of traditional soil mechanics examples, such as the isotropic compression and one‐dimensional upward seepage flow, were used to validate the proposed algorithm quantitatively. The numerical results showed very good agreement with the analytical solutions, which show the correctness of this algorithm. Sensitivity studies on the effect of some influential factors of the coupling scheme such as pore fluid bulk modulus, volumetric strain calculation, and fluid mesh size were performed to display the accuracy, efficiency, and robustness of the numerical algorithm. It is revealed that the pore fluid bulk modulus is a critical parameter that can affect the accuracy of the results. Because of the iterative coupling scheme of these algorithms, high value of fluid bulk modulus can result in instability and consequently reduction in the maximum possible time‐step. Furthermore, the increase of the fluid mesh size reduces the accuracy of the calculated pore pressure. This study enhances our current understanding of the capacity of fluid‐particle coupled DEM to simulate the mechanical behavior of saturated granular materials. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

深厚土层流固多向地震全耦合动力响应分析

根据上海地区典型土层的力学特性,拟合得到简化亚塑性边界面模型的动力计算参数,同时考虑流、固耦合以及地震多向作用的耦合,以San Fernando1971年地震记录的加速度时程曲线为输入地震波,对上海280 m深典型地层的地震反应进行了分析,得到了有意义的结果。