GBHM模型原理及其在中尺度流域的应用

分布式水文模型核心之一是对流域的离散方法.基于地形分析和单位线概念,GBHM利用面积函数和宽度函数概化流域地形特性,将流域划分为一系列内部均一的流带和流条,形成均质坡面流单元,使模型可用一维水份运动方程描述降水产流过程.模型在永定河流域的应用表明,其原理和效率均较为满意.     

昔格达断裂晚第四纪活动特征及强震复发周期

利用冲沟、山脊等断错构造地貌的DEM影像资料和详实的野外踏勘,详细分析了昔格达断裂的晚第四纪活动特征。结果显示:断裂线两侧的河沟和山脊地貌呈"S"或反"Z"形或以多个首尾连接的"S"形雁列式斜列,断裂活动为左行左列式,断层上发育多个拉分盆地和断裂湖;该断裂最新活动时间晚于(12.83±1.09)ka,为全新世走滑活动断裂,倾滑分量不大,倾向总体西倾,且晚更新世以来的左旋走滑速率约为1.70 mm/a;依据断裂线地震遗迹及断裂活动特征,断裂强活动复发间隔大致为10~12 ka或更短。     

210Pb and 7Be as Tracers for Aerosol Transfers at Center Guizhou，China：Ⅰ．The Explanation by Weekly Interval

It′s essential to measure air concentrations and depositional fluxes of environmental radionuclides in different regions for modeling global contamination transfer and validation, tracing deposition process and dating, referencing watershed erosion trace and assessing natural radiation of ecosystem. This study introduces the research background and methods and explains weekly variations of ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be concentrations in surface air and precipitation at Mt. Guanfeng/Guiyang since 2001. The results indicate that ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be concentrations in surface air fluctuate periodically at 2~6 week interval because of the meteorological condition changes. The annual trend in ²¹⁰Pb air concentration is overall influenced by air temperature variation and periodical rainfall. ⁷Be air concentration varies up and down regualarly. The synchronization of low concentrations for both ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be in surface air and high ratio (²¹⁰Pb/⁷Be ≥ 0.8) indicate oceanic poor ²¹⁰Pb-⁷Be air mass invasion. The synchronization of high concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be in surface air and low ratio (²¹⁰Pb/⁷Be ≤ 0.7) implies rich ⁷Be air mass invasion from altostratus atmosphere. Weekly concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be in precipitation and the K_d coefficients are high in late Autumn to Spring, and low in late Spring to Autumn. Although ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be concentrations vary seasonally, their weekly concentrations in precipitation increase with that of air concentration. The ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be weekly concentrations for seasonal division is about 0.2 Bq/L and 1 Bq/L, respectively. However, the K_d coefficient decreases when ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be air concentrations increase. Deposition of ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be with precipitation mainly take place in Spring and Summer; The weekly fallout of ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be increases with increasing precipitation; the increase of ⁷Be is triple of that of ²¹⁰Pb and 2.5 when precipitation nears to zero. The weekly-high fallout of ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be with precipitation corresponds with the dramatic decrease of their air concentrations within or vicinal weeks. The ratio of ²¹⁰Pb to ⁷Be in rainfall is overall ≤ 0.5 and varies synchronously with the ratio in surface air, indicating that the two radionuclides are cleaned by precipitation from air at close speed. In the extreme freezing disaster in 2008, both ²¹⁰Pb and ⁷Be air concentrations were low and coupling with coexist of low concentration of aerosol and high nuclides activities. Weekly concentration of ⁷Be in surface air at Mt. Guanfeng demonstrates the anticipated concentration level in the low-latitude and high-elevation region; the short-term fluctuations of ⁷Be concentration indicated the hysteresis was influcenced by the strong air current submersion and the low-elevation air mass rising differently at Mt. Guanfeng and Mt. Waliguan.      

空基下视时序影像瞬时成像模型研究

物方空间的物体随着时间的推移进行着绝对运动,运动导致了相对位置的变化,时间序列影像记录了物方三维空间的动态变化。本文基于下视时间序列影像的动态特性,在共线方程中引入时间元素,提出了空基下视时间序列影像瞬时成像模型,描述了动态“物像”间的瞬时投影关系;针对地表不同类型动态物体,构建了“由像到物”的应用模型,实现了从像方动态特征计算地表物体特征的目的。通过仿真和真实航空下视序列影像的试验与分析,验证了序列影像瞬时成像模型能够定量计算像地动态特征。     

地下管线探测的基本原理及解释方法研究

本文较详细地讨论了电磁直接探测法探测地下管线的基本原理和解释方法;提出了一种新的求解管线位置和深度、并给出探测结果可信度的向量交绘法。现场提供高可信度的结果;对管线探测仪器设备及应用效果作了介绍。     

东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征

东昆仑活动断裂托索湖——玛曲以东肯定那一带， 可据阿尼玛卿玛积峰为界再分为花石峡段和玛沁段两个在几何上不连续的段落. 两段在表征断层全新世活动特征的古地震事件方面有明显差异， 花石峡段的地震活动性明显高于玛沁段的地震活动性. 古地震研究表明， 花石峡段上3次强震活动相邻两次地震发生的时间间隔分别约为500 a和640 a， 玛沁段上最近两次古地震事件间大致有1 000 a左右的时间间隔. 根据断层平均滑动速率计算的花石峡段7.5级地震的平均复发间隔为411~608 a， 相对应的同震平均水平位错约为（5.75plusmn;0.57）m. 虽然玛沁段的地震活动性较弱， 但由于该段上最近一次地震事件离现在较为久远， 已经积累的应变能应该使我们对其未来地震危险性的分析有足够重视.      

中长期地震预测方案综合信度评价的层次分析法

由于存在各种复杂的不确定因素的影响，正确合理地评价地震观测结果的可信度，具有一定的难度。本文首先引入具有广泛应用途的层次分析法，并以华北北部为例，结合Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ专家咨询结果，给出了反映各个预测方案结果的可信度及具有满意一致性的相对重要性权系数。其结果可作为综合各种预测方案，确定该地区中长期地震危险区的参考依据。     

Evaluation of rainfall-runoff performance using the stochastic integral equation method

The stochastic integral equation method (S.I.E.M.) is used to evaluate the relative performance of a set of both calibrated and uncalibrated rainfall-runoff models with respect to prediction errors. The S.I.E.M. is also used to estimate confidence (prediction) interval values of a runoff criterion variable, given a prescribed rainfall-runoff model, and a similarity measure used to condition the storms that are utilized for model calibration purposes.Because of the increasing attention given to the issue of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling estimates, the S.I.E.M. provides a promising tool for the hydrologist to consider in both research and design.     

基于区间非概率可靠性方法的岩溶区桩基下溶洞顶板稳定性评价

岩溶区桩基下溶洞顶板稳定性影响因素取值的不确定性及其样本数量的有限性,给桩基下溶洞顶板稳定性的评价带来了一定困难。根据现有研究成果,建立桩基下溶洞顶板抗冲切、抗剪切和抗弯力学简化模型,并从理论上推导相应的稳定性验算公式。在此基础上,结合区间分析理论和结构非概率可靠性度量方法,提出了基于区间非概率可靠性方法的桩基下溶洞顶板稳定性评价方法。该方法采用MATLAB中的INTLAB工具箱进行区间运算,并运用截断法消除运算过程中的区间扩展现象,最后通过比较溶洞顶板体系的非概率可靠性指标η与1的大小来判断桩基下溶洞顶板稳定性。以丹霞高速互通中D匝道2#桩基下溶洞为例,计算出该桩基下溶洞顶板体系的非概率可靠性指标η=7.95,该值大于1说明该桩基下溶洞顶板处于稳定状态,且评价结果与工程实际相符,表明了该方法的合理性与可行性。分别以3种功能函数为单位,研究当区间变量的变异系数C不同时(C从0.01递增至0.1),对应非概率可靠性指标η的变化规律。研究表明,随各区间变量变异系数C的增大,相应非概率可靠性指标呈不同程度的降低,其中溶洞顶板厚度h的变异性对评价结果影响最大,其次为桩端阻力分担比T,桩顶反力F的影响相对最小。     

我国旬降水量的时空分布特征

用EOF方法分解我国近44a的旬降水场，得知：我国旬降水的6种主要空间型出现的集中时段各不相同，各型均以年际和年内的短周期变化为主，且有各自的长期变化趋势。EOF展开空间型的时间系数间存在显著的统计相关。