The Data Depth-weight-kernel Estimation of the Model Error of Satellite Orbit Determination

It is an objective fact that there exists error in the satellite dynamic model and it will be transferred to satellite orbit determination algorithm, forming a part of the connotative model error. Mixed with the systematic error and random error of the measurements, they form the unitive model error and badly restrict the precision of the orbit determination. We deduce in detail the equations of orbit improvement for a system with dynamic model error, construct the parametric model for the explicit part of the model and nonparametric model for the error that can not be explicitly described. We also construct the partially linear orbit determination model, estimate and fit the model error using a two-stage estimation and a kernel function estimation, and finally make the corresponding compensation in the orbit determination. Beginning from the data depth theory, a data depth weight kernel estimator for model error is proposed for the sake of promoting the steadiness of model error estimation. Simulation experiments of SBSS are performed. The results show clearly that the model error is one of the most important effects that will influence the precision of the orbit determination. The kernel function method can effectively estimate the model error, with the window width as a major restrict parameter. A data depth-weight-kernel estimation, however, can improve largely the robustness of the kernel function and therefore improve the precision of orbit determination.     

古本今本《竹书纪年》的天象记载和纪年

对《竹书纪年》记载的天象和纪年进行了初步的分析研究,结果表明,今本《竹书纪年》中新增的天象如日食等,并非汲冢出土佚书的原有内容,而为宋元以后学者所加.     

两行根数辅助的SLR单站定轨

单站测距资料定轨的困难限制了漫反射SLR(Satellite Laser Ranging)测距资料的应用.为此,提出利用两行根数模拟多站SLR测距资料作为辅助,实现单站SLR测距资料定轨的方法.该方法对卫星Ajisai单站SLR测距资料定轨并生成5 d预报轨道,误差小于40 m,实现利用单站测距资料的轨道改进,验证了方法的可行性.     

中国历代荧惑守列宿与四星聚、五星聚考查

利用授时历法和现代天文计算方法,对中国历代天文志记录的荧惑(火星)守列宿、四星聚、五星聚进行分析研究,结果表明:65条荧惑守列宿,正误率分别为49%和51%.如果把荧惑留、留守、在某宿等运动形态也考虑为守的范围,共有95条,其正误率分别为56%和44%.12条四星聚正误率各占一半,即50%.11条五星聚正误率分别为82%和18%(其中含五星并见).并对错误记录的原因做了初步探讨.     

Adiabatic chaos in the Prometheus–Pandora system

The chaotic orbital motion of Prometheus and Pandora, the 16th and 17th satellites of Saturn, is studied. Chaos in their orbital motion, as found by Goldreich & Rappaport and Renner & Sicardy, is due to interaction of resonances in the resonance multiplet corresponding to the 121:118 commensurability of the mean motions of the satellites. It is shown rigorously that the system moves in adiabatic regime. The Lyapunov time (the 'time horizon of predictability' of the motion) is calculated analytically and compared to the available numerical–experimental estimates. For this purpose, a method of analytical estimation of the maximum Lyapunov exponent in the perturbed pendulum model of non-linear resonance is applied. The method is based on the separatrix map theory. An analytical estimate of the width of the chaotic layer is made as well, based on the same theory. The ranges of chaotic diffusion in the mean motion are shown to be almost twice as big compared to previous estimates for both satellites.