The Bootstrap Estimation of the Accuracy of Preliminary Orbit Determination

From the point of view of the non-parametric statistics, a general estimation method of the accuracy and con?dence interval of preliminary orbit determination is proposed for the occasion without any other information but observational data. Based on the bootstrap method, the estimation relies only on the observational data and does not require the precise orbit determination as a reference, or the assumption of normal distribution of observational errors. Numerical experiments show that this method is very simple in implementa- tion, and may serve as an easy accuracy evaluation for the preliminary orbit determination and for the follow-up employments.     

卫星轨道预报的一种分析方法

人造地球卫星的轨道预报是空间环境监测和实时跟踪测量中一个重要环节，由于监测对象众多，要求精度也不太高，通常采用分析法预报．在已有分析法得到t时刻平均根数的基础上给出一种轨道预报方法，由t时刻的平均根数给出该时刻卫星的位置和速度，在此基础上将地球非球形引力摄动的周期项直接用卫星直角坐标的位置和速度分量表示，这样可以避免在计算轨道根数变化的周期项时出现的奇点问题，从而对根数的选择无特殊要求，可适用于各种轨道，简化预报程序和相应的软件，提高预报效率。     

Eccentricity Generation in Hierarchical Triple Systems with Non-coplanar and Initially Circular Orbits

In a previous paper, we developed a technique for estimating the inner eccentricity in coplanar hierarchical triple systems on initially circular orbits, with comparable masses and with well-separated components, based on an expansion of the rate of change of the Runge-Lenz vector. Now, the same technique is extended to non-coplanar orbits. However, it can only be applied to systems with I ₀ < 39.23° or I ₀ > 140.77°, where I is the inclination of the two orbits, because of complications arising from the so-called ‘Kozai effect’. The theoretical model is tested against results from numerical integrations of the full equations of motion. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

国际地球自转服务(IERS)评介

回顾了建立国际地球自转服务(IERS)的历史过程,简述了IERS机构各部门的设置及其作用。着重介绍了IERS重建的理由和过程以及新IERS机构的组成。最后给出IERS成果对现有科学研究的作用和意义。     

Close encounters in young stellar clusters: implications for planetary systems in the solar neighbourhood

The stars that populate the solar neighbourhood were formed in stellar clusters. Through N -body simulations of these clusters, we measure the rate of close encounters between stars. By monitoring the interaction histories of each star, we investigate the singleton fraction in the solar neighbourhood. A singleton is a star which formed as a single star, has never experienced any close encounters with other stars or binaries, or undergone an exchange encounter with a binary. We find that, of the stars which formed as single stars, a significant fraction is not singletons once the clusters have dispersed. If some of these stars had planetary systems, with properties similar to those of the Solar System, the planets' orbits may have been perturbed by the effects of close encounters with other stars or the effects of a companion star within a binary. Such perturbations can lead to strong planet–planet interactions which eject several planets, leaving the remaining planets on eccentric orbits. Some of the single stars exchange into binaries. Most of these binaries are broken up via subsequent interactions within the cluster, but some remain intact beyond the lifetime of the cluster. The properties of these binaries are similar to those of the observed binary systems containing extrasolar planets. Thus, dynamical processes in young stellar clusters will alter significantly any population of Solar System-like planetary systems. In addition, beginning with a population of planetary systems exactly resembling the Solar System around single stars, dynamical encounters in young stellar clusters may produce at least some of the extrasolar planetary systems observed in the solar neighbourhood.     

The Orbital Evolution of Two Sounding Satellites and Analysis of the Accuracy of Orbit Determination

The satellites TC-1 and TC-2 are the two Chinese satellites with great elliptical orbits which are still in orbit around the earth at present. Since the launch the orbits of the two satellites have continuously evolved, which has a certain effect on the orbit determination and prediction precision. The regularities of the orbital evolution of the two sounding satellites are qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. Under the current tracking mode the corresponding prediction precision of orbit determination is analyzed based on the different stages of the orbital evolution, thereby providing the basis for the adjustment of planning mode by the satellite application departments and the guarantee of normal satellite payload. Finally, the orbital lifetimes of the two satellites are predicted through the trend of the orbital evolution.     

The mass of the Andromeda galaxy

This paper argues that the Milky Way galaxy is probably the largest member of the Local Group. The evidence comes from estimates of the total mass of the Andromeda galaxy (M31) derived from the three-dimensional positions and radial velocities of its satellite galaxies, as well as the projected positions and radial velocities of its distant globular clusters and planetary nebulae. The available data set comprises 10 satellite galaxies, 17 distant globular clusters and nine halo planetary nebulae with radial velocities. We find that the halo of Andromeda has a mass of together with a scalelength of 90 kpc and a predominantly isotropic velocity distribution. For comparison, our earlier estimate for the Milky Way halo is Although the error bars are admittedly large, this suggests that the total mass of M31 is probably less than that of the Milky Way . We verify the robustness of our results to changes in the modelling assumptions and to errors caused by the small size and incompleteness of the data set.
Our surprising claim can be checked in several ways in the near future. The numbers of satellite galaxies, planetary nebulae and globular clusters with radial velocities can be increased by ground-based spectroscopy, while the proper motions of the companion galaxies and the unresolved cores of the globular clusters can be measured using the astrometric satellites Space Interferometry Mission ( SIM ) and Global Astrometric Interferometer for Astrophysics ( GAIA ). Using 100 globular clusters at projected radii 20 R 50 kpc with both radial velocities and proper motions, it will be possible to estimate the mass within 50 kpc to an accuracy of 20 per cent. Measuring the proper motions of the companion galaxies with SIM and GAIA will reduce the uncertainty in the total mass caused by the small size of the data set to 22 per cent.     

Two-integral distribution functions for axisymmetric stellar systems with separable densities

We show different expressions of distribution functions (DFs) which depend only on the two classical integrals of the energy and the magnitude of the angular momentum with respect to the axis of symmetry for stellar systems with known axisymmetric densities. The density of the system is required to be a product of functions separable in the potential and the radial coordinates, where the functions of the radial coordinate are powers of a sum of a square of the radial coordinate and its unit scale. The even part of the two-integral DF corresponding to this type of density is in turn a sum or an infinite series of products of functions of the energy and of the magnitude of the angular momentum about the axis of symmetry. A similar expression of its odd part can be also obtained under the assumption of the rotation laws. It can be further shown that these expressions are in fact equivalent to those obtained by using Hunter & Qian's contour integral formulae for the system. This method is generally computationally preferable to the contour integral method. Two examples are given to obtain the even and odd parts of their two-integral DFs. One is for the prolate Jaffe model and the other for the prolate Plummer model.
It can be also found that the Hunter–Qian contour integral formulae of the two-integral even DF for axisymmetric systems can be recovered by use of the Laplace–Mellin integral transformation originally developed by Dejonghe.