The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Predisposition to Induced Seismicity in Some Czech Coal Mines

—Mining-induced seismicity associated with longwall face operations in the Ostrava- Karviná coal mines, Czech Republic, has been investigated in order to establish the conditions leading to a focal zone generation. The study, based on macroseismic and instrumental observations, proved that seismicity is influenced by natural as well as mining conditions. The first group includes the influence of faults, washouts and red beds, while the second one is represented by shaft and/or crosscut safety pillars and various types of remnant pillars. All the cases discussed show that many focal zones are generated in overstressed strata as a consequence of interaction of natural conditions and/or old workings with the active coal face. Received June 18, 1996, accepted March 10, 1997     

Time-dependent, coupled, Ekman boundary layer solutions incorporating Stokes drift

Recent technological advances in current measuring devices has resulted in a large observational database related to wind-driven motions in the upper ocean mixed layer. This has served to highlight the fact that transient motions make up a substantial contribution of the resulting Ekman currents. At the same time, certain discrepancies have emerged between the observed angular deflections of the steady-state currents from the surface wind stress, both at the surface and at sub-surface depths, which cannot be reconciled using the classical Ekman model. This paper seeks to tackle these two issues.First a general analytical method is presented for solving the time dependent horizontal momentum Ekman equations. Analysis of the unsteady terms that arise from simple special cases shows how the evolution proceeds through three stages. At early times, the Coriolis acceleration is insignificant, and the current is unidirectional and deepens through downward diffusion of momentum. Later Coriolis acceleration deflects the current vectors in the upper layers, whilst downward diffusion of momentum continues to deepen the layer. Finally, once diffusion has penetrated down to the depth of the steady-state current, then the transients decay on the inertial or diffusive timescale, depending upon the boundary conditions of the particular problem.In the second half of the paper, a new steady-state model is developed that includes the effects of wind-generated waves, through the action of their Stokes drift on the planetary vorticity. Comparisons between observations and the theoretical predictions, demonstrate that inclusion of the Stokes drift is the key to reconciling the discrepancies in the angular deflections of the steady-state currents. This leads to the conclusion that Ekman layer currents are significantly influenced by the surface waves.     

碎石桩复合地基抗液化设计方法的分析

对碎石桩复合地基抗液化设计方法进行了分析评价 ,并对施工技术作了介绍。基于复合地基抗地震液化作用的分析 ,提出一种合理的抗液化设计方法 ,该方法能够体现碎石桩复合地基的加密、排水和减震三方面的抗地震液化作用。     

探测冰盖和多年冻土层的融冰探头研发

The exploration of ice sheets by melting vertical holes into the ground has some tradition in terrestrial glaciology. Such probes have been used since the 1960's to investigate the vertical structure of the ice in Greenland and Antarctica and in alpine glaciers. In this paper we look into the possibility to develop similar devices for use on extraterrestrial icy bodies, like e.g. the polar areas on Mars or the icy satellites of the outer solar system. We report on some basic experiments performed in the cryo-vacuum laboratory of the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz. In these experiments the penetration of a simple melting probe into compact and porous water ice (with a snow-like texture) was monitored, both under vacuum conditions and under air pressure. The observed penetration speeds for a given power supply are compared with a simple mathematical model. We conclude that a miniature melting probe with small overall dimensions and a reasonable power demand could well be part of the payload of a future planetary mission, for example to the poles of Mars. Such missions are currently under discussion in several space agencies. Moreover such probes could also e? ectively be used in terrestrial environments. A possible design is presented at the end of the paper.     

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Origin and Evolution of Silica-saturated Alkalic Suites: an Experimental Study

Experimental simulation of incremental crystal fractionationof a hy-normative hawaiite indicates that the spectrum of compositionsfrom mildly alkalic hawaiite to sodic rhyolite found in silica-saturatedalkalic suites of the ocean islands and continental hotspotsand rifts can be produced by fractionation at 9·3 kbarwith bulk water contents >     

Mantle Xenoliths from the Southeastern Slave Craton: Evidence for Chemical Zonation in a Thick, Cold Lithosphere

We present the first data on the petrology of the mantle lithosphereof the Southeastern (SE) Slave craton, Canada. These are basedon petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical studies of mantlexenoliths in Pipe 5034 of the Cambrian Gahcho Kué kimberlitecluster. Major types of mantle xenoliths include altered eclogite,coarse garnet or spinel peridotite, and deformed garnet peridotite.The peridotites belong to the low-temperature suite and formedat T=600–1300°C and P= 25–80 kbar in a thick(at least 220–250 km), cool lithosphere. The SE Slavemantle is cooler than the mantle of other Archaean cratons andthat below other terranes of the Slave craton. The thick lithosphereand the relatively cool thermal regime provide favourable conditionsfor formation and preservation of diamonds beneath the SE Slaveterrane. Similar to average Archaean mantle worldwide, the SESlave peridotite is depleted in magmaphile major elements andcontains olivine with forsterite content of 91–93·5.With respect to olivine composition and mode, all terranes ofthe Slave mantle show broadly similar compositions and are relativelyorthopyroxene-poor compared with those of the Kaapvaal and Siberiancratons. The SE Slave spinel peridotite is poorer in Al, Caand Fe, and richer in Mg than deeper garnet peridotite. Thegreater chemical depletion of the shallow upper mantle is typicalof all terranes of the Slave craton and may be common for thesubcontinental lithospheric peridotitic mantle in general. Peridotiticxenoliths of the SE Slave craton were impregnated by kimberliticfluids that caused late-stage recrystallization of primary clinopyroxene,spinel, olivine and spinel-facies orthopyroxene, and formationof interstitial clinopyroxene. This kimberlite-related recrystallizationdepleted primary pyroxenes and spinel in Al. The kimberliticfluid was oxidizing, Ti-, Fe- and K-rich, and Na-poor, and introducedserpentine, chlorite, phlogopite and spinel into peridotitesat P < 35 kbar. KEY WORDS: kimberlite xenolith; lithosphere; mantle terrane; chemical zoning; thermobarometry; Slave craton     

Quantitative Constraints on Metamorphism in the Variscides of Southern Brittany--a Complementary Pseudosection Approach

Previous studies of metapelitic rocks from the core of the southernBrittany metamorphic belt suggest a complex clockwise P–Tevolution. We use pseudosections calculated for an average subaluminousmetapelite composition in the MnNCKFMASH system and averageP–T calculations to investigate in more detail the metamorphicevolution of these rocks. For migmatites, sequential occurrenceof kyanite, kyanite + staurolite and sillimanite suggests thata prograde evolution to P > 8 kbar at T