不同开口比人工鱼礁体水动力特性及礁体稳定性研究

为研究方型人工鱼礁体开口比的变化对其水动力特性的影响,利用Fluent软件模拟了边长为3m、开口比为0～0.6之间7种不同方型鱼礁体周围水流场,通过分析水流场变化规律得到了礁体流场效应、阻力系数随开口比的变化情况;基于Morison方程计算了礁体在波流作用下的受力及其抗滑移、抗倾覆安全系数。研究结果表明:当礁体开口比小于0.2时,背涡区范围较大,流场效应明显;随着开口比的增大,礁体产生的上升流范围及竖直向最大速度分量逐渐减小;对于方形开口礁体,阻力系数与开口比的关系式为Cd=0.875φ+1.088(R2=0.963,P<0.01);随着开口比的增大,礁体所受最大波流作用力、抗滑移及抗倾覆安全系数逐渐减小,但礁体不会发生滑移和倾覆,可为实际礁体结构的设计提供参考。     

实时卫星钟差基准精化方法

在基于精密单点定位(PPP)的授时方法中,卫星钟差产品的高精度时间基准至关重要.针对实时卫星钟差产品时间基准不够稳定的问题,本文采用一组具有原子钟外部输入的国际全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)服务(IGS)跟踪站建立了顾及原子钟变化特性的基准精化方法.该方法首先采用阿伦方差对不同的IGS跟踪站外接原子钟进行稳定度分析,挑选出一组稳定度高的原子钟用以精化时间基准.在此基础上,利用阿伦方差分析各台原子钟的噪声参数特征,并确定不同原子钟之间的权比关系.最终,建立时间基准改正量的随机模型,并计算出精化后的时间基准.通过实例验证表明:与IGS事后精密钟差产品定义的时间基准比较,改正后的实时钟差基准单天内的标准差(STD)优于0.1 ns,相比于改正前最高提升了93%.同时,基准改正后的天内万秒稳达到10^-15量级,实现了一个量级的提高.此外,通过相对钟差精度的分析,表明钟差基准修正不影响PPP的定位精度.     

Simulation of landscape spatial layout evolution in rural-urban fringe areas: a case study of Ganjingzi District

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban spaces has accelerated the mutual evolution of landscape types. Analyzing and simulating spatio-temporal dynamic features of urban landscape can help to reveal its driving mechanisms and facilitate reasonable planning of urban land resources. The purpose of this study was to design a hybrid cellular automata model to simulate dynamic change in urban landscapes. The model consists of four parts: a geospatial partition, a Markov chain (MC), a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN), and cellular automata (CA). This study employed multivariate land use data for the period 2000–2015 to conduct spatial clustering for the Ganjingzi District and to simulate landscape status evolution via a divisional composite cellular automaton model. During the period of 2000–2015, construction land and forest land areas in Ganjingzi District increased by 19.43% and 15.19%, respectively, whereas farmland, garden lands, and other land areas decreased by 43.42%, 52.14%, and 75.97%, respectively. Land use conversion potentials in different sub-regions show different characteristics in space. The overall land-change prediction accuracy for the subarea-composite model is 3% higher than that of the non-partitioned model, and misses are reduced by 3.1%. Therefore, by integrating geospatial zoning and the MLP-ANN hybrid method, the land type conversion rules of different zonings can be obtained, allowing for more effective simulations of future urban land use change. The hybrid cellular automata model developed here will provide a reference for urban planning and policy formulation.     

广东省统一深度基准项目的设计研究

根据对广东省现有长期验潮站数量、分布以及水位数据情况的分析,确立了在已有长期验潮站的基础上,采用适当布设短期验潮站的方式,对长期验潮站进行加密补充;建立海区调和常数变化模型,并结合水深数据、卫星测高数据,构建海洋潮汐模型;最终建立深度基准模型的总体设计思路。广东省统一深度基准的建立,可实现深度基准面1985高程模型的构建,相邻测区间水深成果的无缝拼接,沿海水深成果与陆地地形成果的相互转换,GNSS技术下的水深测量(无验潮模式)以及对沿海范围内海岸线和海岛岸线的精确推算。     

黑龙江省空中云水资源开发现状分析与展望

自1995年开始,黑龙江省进入建国后的第二个干周期。黑龙江省云水资源比较丰富,据专家分析,每年通过人工影响天气作业平均增水约为5×108m3左右,仅占空中可利用水资源的0.2%,空中云水资源的开发潜力十分巨大。加强空中云水资源的开发利用,对缓解黑龙江省水资源短缺困境、推动地方社会经济发展意义重大。     

基于FY-4A卫星和随机森林算法的西藏山南市雷电短临预报方法

针对青藏高原地区雷电短临预报缺乏雷达资料的问题,采用FY-4A卫星多通道数据、欧洲中心第5代再分析资料(ERA5)中的对流指数、闪电定位仪资料等多源监测数据,根据雷电的发生、发展机理,提出了18个关键预报因子,利用随机森林算法建立了适用于西藏山南地区的雷电短临预报模型。统计分析各预报因子在有无雷电天气样本中的概率密度分布与随机森林模型得到的特征重要度指标,结果表明提出的预报因子物理意义明确,建立的模型可信度较高。利用随机森林算法分别对未来10 min、20 min、30 min建立雷电预报模型,并与光流外推预报方法进行对比检验,结果表明：随机森林模型预报效果命中率(POD)、临界成功指数(CSI)均高于光流法,空报率(FAR)也相对较低;未来20 min的随机森林预报模型CSI评分最高,整体预报效果最佳。     

基于数据传输特性的卫星广播通道参数优化方法与应用

中国气象局卫星广播系统（CMACast）是全球对地观测广播系统（GEONETCast）框架下三大对地广播系统之一,在世界气象组织信息系统（WIS）和综合卫星数据分发服务系统(IGDDS)框架下,承担亚太地区气象数据广播分发的职责。随着气象业务的发展,广播系统数据量由180 GB/天增长至460 GB/天,在广播带宽资源有限而广播数据种类和大小各异的情况下,系统管理员越来越难以通过经验对广播通道参数调整以保持广播系统播发效率,造成部分通道数据播发时效下降严重,不能满足业务时效要求。通过对不同气象数据传输特性的定量分析,获得各类数据的精细化数据传输样本,在此基础上对各类数据广播通道参数进行科学、定量的计算和优化,使数据播发时效明显提升,应用到实际广播业务中效果明显。     

Hybrids between olive flounder Paralichthys olivaceus and stone flounder Kareius bicoloratus: karyotype, allozyme and RAPD analyses

The hybrid between olive flounder Paralichthys olivaceus and stone flounder Kareius bicoloratus was produced by artificial insemination of olive flounder eggs with stone flounder Sperm. Sinistral and dextral are two types of hybrid progeny after metamorphosis. Karyotypes of both hybrid flounders are the same as those of the two parental species. Of the 22 loci examined from 12 allozymes,12 confirmed hybridization of the paternal and matemal loci in hybrids and no difference was found in allozyme patterns of sinistral and dextral hybrid fishes. RAPD patterns of these specimens were also studied with 38 primers selected from 104 tested. Among them, the PCR products of 30 primers showed hybridization of the paternal and maternal bands. Genetic variation between hybrids and their parental stocks was analyzed by RAPD using 10 of the above 38 primers. The average heterozygosity and genetic distance were calculated. The results suggested that the filial generation could inherit a little more genetic materials from paternal fish than that from maternal fish.     

Ecosystem health assessment of Honghu Lake Wetland of China using artificial neural network approach

Honghu Lake, located in the southeast of Hubei Province, China, has suffered a severe disturbance during the past few decades. To restore the ecosystem, the Honghu Lake Wetland Protection and Restoration Demonstration Project (HLWPRDP) has been implemented since 2004. A back propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) approach was applied to evaluatinig the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland. And the effectiveness of the HLWPRDP was also assessed by comparing the ecosystem health before and after the project. Particularly, 12 ecosystem health indices were used as evaluation parameters to establish a set of three-layer BP ANNs. The output is one layer of ecosystem health index. After training and testing the BP ANNs, an optimal model of BP ANNs was selected to assess the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland. The result indicates that four stages can be identified based on the change of the ecosystem health from 1990 to 2008 and the ecosystem health index ranges from morbidity before the implementation of HLWPRDP (in 2002) to middle health after the implementation of the HLWPRDP (in 2005). It demonstrates that the HLWPRDP is effective and the BP ANN could be used as a tool for the assessment of ecosystem health.     

卫星导航系统定位精度评估

对用户等效距离误差结合精度衰减因子（DOP）值的精度评估方法进行了阐述,提出根据单站DOP和全球DOP进行系统定位精度评估的两种方法,仿真证明,两种方法评估结果相当。