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41.
基于1960-2018年的日降水资料,计算辽河流域降水集中指数(CI),分析日降水集中程度的时空特征。结果表明:降水集中指数CI可以有效描述辽河流域降水集中程度,辽河流域年CI指数平均为0.67,降水集中程度总体呈现出东部和西部低、南部和北部高的鞍型空间分布特征;夏季降水集中程度最高,各站点季平均CI指数为0.65,空间分布与年分布较一致,冬季平均CI指数最低,为0.60,由东南向西北递减;研究时段内年CI指数表现为不显著的减小趋势,其中东部区域减小的趋势最大;各子区域年CI指数平均变化周期为3 a左右,其中1985年以前,变化周期较短,在2 a左右,1985年以后,变化周期超过3 a。 相似文献
42.
The nature of the reduction trend and quasi-decadal oscillation in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent is investigated. The trend and oscillation that seem to be two separate phenomena have been found in data. This study examines a hypothesis that the Arctic sea-ice reduction trend in the last three decades amplified the quasi-decadal Arctic sea-ice oscillation (ASIO) due to a positive ice/ocean-albedo feedback, based on data analysis and a conceptual model proposed by Ikeda et al. The theoretical, conceptual model predicts that the quasi-decadal oscillation is amplified by the thinning sea-ice, leading to the ASIO, which is driven by the strong positive feedback between the atmosphere and ice-ocean systems. Such oscillation is predicted to be out-of-phase between the Arctic Basin and the Nordic Seas with a phase difference of 3/4, with the Nordic Seas leading the Arctic. The wavelet analysis of the sea ice data reveals that the quasi-decadal ASIO occurred actively since the 1970s following the trend starting in the 1960s (i.e., as sea-ice became thinner and thinner), as the atmosphere experienced quasi-decadal oscillations during the last century. The wavelet analysis also confirms the prediction of such out-of-phase feature between these two basins, which varied from 0.62 in 1960 to 0.25 in 1995. Furthermore, a coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was used to simulate two scenarios, one without the greenhouse gas warming and the other having realistic atmospheric forcing along with the warming that leads to sea-ice reduction trend. The quasi-decadal ASIO is excited in the latter case compared to the no-warming case. The wavelet analyses of the simulated ice volume were also conducted to derive decadal ASIO and similar phase relationship between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. An independent data source was used to confirm such decadal oscillation in the upper layer (or freshwater) thickness, which is consistent with the model simulation. A modified feedback loop for the sea-ice trend and ASIO was proposed based on the previous one by Mysak and Venegas and the ice/albedo and cloud/albedo feedabcks, which are responsible for the sea ice reduction trend. 相似文献
43.
Shao Huicheng 《中国地震研究》2005,19(1):22-28
INTRODUCTIONWiththedevelopmentofsocietyandquickurbanizationfeaturedbyacentralizationofpopulationsandeconomies ,itisverylikelythatastrongearthquakewillcausethedeathofhundredsandthousandsofpeopleandhugelossofproperty .Forexample ,intheepicenterareaoftheBame… 相似文献
44.
Annual and monthly rainfall data generation schemes 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
N. E.?ünal H.?AksoyEmail author T.?Akar 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):245-257
Synthetic annual and monthly rainfall data series are generated by using autoregressive (AR) processes, Thomas-Fiering (TF) model, method of fragments (F) and its modified version (MF), two-tier (TT) model, and a newly developed wavelet (W) approach. It is seen that the W approach is as well in preserving the statistical behavior of the observed data series as the classical annual and monthly hydrological data generation schemes used in this study. The W approach is found even better in replacing some particular characteristics such as the mean of the sequence and correlation between the successive months in the series. It is, therefore, proposed as a new annual and monthly hydrological data generation scheme. 相似文献
45.
46.
通过对近51 a雅鲁藏布江中游河谷地区4个气象站逐日降水资料进行等权平均取值,采用气候倾向率和小波分析法,研究了不同时间尺度下近51 a降水变化趋势及周期特征。结果表明:研究区降水量以20世纪80年代为最少,2000年后年降水量与20世纪90年代和60年代基本持平。夏季和秋季降水量年代际变化与年降水量的变化基本一致。近51 a降水量增加趋势不显著。年降水量存在准3 a、8—11 a和30 a的周期,以准11 a周期最为突出。降水量变化以春季增长趋势最显著,可在干旱季补充土壤水分,减轻风沙化土地的发生发展。秋季和冬季增长趋势不明显,夏季降水量呈减小趋势。就季节降水变化的时间尺度和周期性而言,2007年后四季降水表现为,春季在20—30 a时间尺度上将处于偏高期,夏季在8—12 a时间尺度上将处于偏低期,秋季在8—12 a时间尺度上将处于偏低期,冬季在20—30 a时间尺度上将出现向降水偏高的过渡期。 相似文献
47.
As an important measurement parameter, global total electron content (TEC) is appropriate for the study of the Sun–Earth connection.
In this paper, the wavelet technique is employed to investigate the periodicities in global mean TEC during 1995–2008. Analysis
results show several remarkable components (including 27-day, semiannual and annual cycles) existing in global mean TEC with
obvious time-variable characteristics, besides 11-year cycle. After analyzing sunspot numbers and solar extreme ultra-violet
(EUV) radiation variations during this time period, except for semiannual variations, close correlation between global mean
TEC and solar variations is found, especially, a strong resemblance of the 27-day fluctuation exists in global mean TEC, sunspot
and solar EUV radiation variations. 相似文献
48.
The aim of this paper is to illustrate the results of a preliminary study on aerial landslide-generated waves, which has been mainly intended to establish a method for analyzing water surface records. Some simple physical experiments, reproducing the Scott Russell's wave generator, were carried out in a small two-dimensional wave flume; the Wavelet Transform (WT) is applied to analyze wave measurements and it is shown that useful information can be obtained by means of this technique. The celerity of impulsively generated waves, reflection by an overflow structure and seiching phenomena of the flume are studied. A discussion of the results along with some remarks about ongoing research is also given. 相似文献
49.
50.
基于1960-2012年日平均气温和日降水量数据,利用小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变分析方法,分析了西藏林芝气温和降水的变化特征。结果表明:林芝年平均气温增长速率0.028℃·a-1;年平均气温受3~4 a尺度波动的影响,无明显主周期;年平均气温序列有3个突变点,分别是1972-1973年、1975-1976年和1977-1978年。年降水量增长率1.218 mm·a-1;年降水量受4 a、10 a和20 a尺度波动的影响;有两个主周期,分别为2 a、19 a;年降水量序列有4个突变点,分别为1960-1961年、1965-1966年、1977-1978年、1982-1983年。 相似文献