2013年10月大气环流和天气分析

2013年10月环流特征如下:北半球高纬度地区为单一极涡,强度较常年同期偏强,中高纬环流呈现4波型,北美地区中高纬环流经向度较常年偏大,南支槽偏强,西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强。10月,全国平均降水量为30.8 mm,比常年同期(35.8 mm)偏少14.0%,全国平均气温为11.1℃,比常年同期(10.3℃)偏高0.8℃。月内,冷空气活动频繁,先后有4次冷空气过程影响我国,但只有22—26日的冷空气达到全国较强冷空气标准,其他3次都是影响北方的中等强度冷空气;受台风菲特影响,我国华东地区南部和华南地区北部出现一次强降水过程;江南中部及河南等地气象干旱持续或发展;我国中东部大部地区出现雾霾天气。     

2014年1月大气环流和天气分析

2014年1月大气环流主要特征如下：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,位置较常年同期明显偏南;欧亚中高纬环流经向度较小;南支槽平均位置位于70°E附近,位置较常年同期明显偏西;同时,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期略偏弱。1月,全国平均降水量为6.2 mm,较常年同期（13.2 mm）偏少53.0%。全国平均气温为-3.4℃,较常年同期（-5.0℃）偏高1.6℃。月内,我国出现1次主要冷空气过程和4次主要降水过程。北方冬麦区降水偏少,气象干旱持续;中东部地区出现大范围雾或霾天气;南方地区出现低温雨雪天气     

2013年底浙西地区一次持续性灰霾天气过程分析

利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对2013年底浙西地区一次持续性灰霾天气过程进行了分析。结果表明,该过程期间存在比较稳定的高、低空和地面环流形势,中低层湿度条件较差;低层以弱辐散和弱垂直运动为主,并且1000 hPa高度层以下浅薄逆温层的持续存在均有利于灰霾天气的维持;干冷空气前锋和主体影响期间,冷平流强度加大且低层有辐合中心和垂直上升运动中心出现,扩散条件好转是灰霾程度减弱的主要原因之一;浙西地区为盆地地形,南北高、中间低的地势不利于污染物的扩散。     

北京一次持续性雾、霾的特征和成因分析

基于2013年1月9-15日北京地区一次持续雾、霾过程,对环流形势、要素、物理量场以及污染监测情况进行分析。结果表明：高PM_2.5和SO₂事件持续时间超过100 h,浓度达到严重污染级别。高空为偏西或西南气流且850 hPa有弱暖平流输送和地面倒槽维持少动是有利于雾、霾持续的背景条件。持续轻雾或霾对湿层厚度要求不高,在925 hPa下即可,且湿层越厚,能见度越低。逆温维持是雾、霾持续的主要原因,且轻雾或霾为主时逆温层特点为厚度浅强度弱,高度或强度的突然增大可预示向大雾或雪转换; 850 hPa以下涡度平流较弱是轻雾或霾持续的动力结构;总温度平流垂直分布表现为闭合中心强度在500 hPa明显分界,且相对较弱的平流中心的高度一般在850-1000 hPa之间,当高度达到500 hPa时或可预示雾、霾天气消散。     

Growth faults above shale – Seismic-scale outcrop analogues from the Makran foreland,SW Pakistan

The southern Makran fold-thrust belt, Pakistan, displays unique outcrop examples of well-exposed, kilometre-scale, listric growth faults that displace Miocene-age deltaic growth strata by several hundreds of metres to kilometers. The largest growth faults are counter-regional (landward-dipping), bounding major clastic depocentres exposed over areas > 1000 km². Stratal offset along these faults can exceed 1.5 km. Fault-zone thicknesses range between ca. 100 and 400 m, and average fault thickness-displacement ratios are around 1:10. High-resolution satellite data show in unprecedented detail the faults and the stratigraphic architecture of associated growth sequences, which comprise kilometre-scale progradational clinoforms, thick mudstone units and basinwards wedging sandstone-shale deposits. The true vertical thickness of the syn-kinematic record is, in places, up to 8 km, making the outcrop examples equivalent to major growth faulted successions known from seismic data of large deltas, and at least an order of magnitude larger than other outcrop examples. A comparison of the Makran outcrops with seismic-reflection examples offshore NW Borneo reveals distinct similarities in the gross depocentre geometries and internal architecture. The key control for growth faulting is interpreted to result from sedimentary loading, with rapid sedimentary progradation causing the development of rollover synclines by differential compaction and fluid expulsion, and counter-regional growth faults preferentially forming on the basinward side of these synclines. The data and interpretations presented can be used to assess the key parameters that contribute to the development of growth faults and growth successions above shale, reinforcing structural and stratigraphic observations from seismic interpretation and modelling studies in demonstrating their occurrence in exposure.     

风云三号D星MERSI-II陆地气溶胶反演定量能力评估

风云三号卫星搭载的中分辨率光谱成像仪MERSI（MEdium-Resolution Spectral Imager）与NASA的MODIS属于同类型传感器,大多数通道设计相似,具备气溶胶反演的能力,但目前还没有精度可靠、稳定且全球适用的业务化气溶胶产品可供使用。本文借鉴MODIS暗目标DT（Dark target）算法思想,针对新发射的风云三号D星搭载的升级版MERSI-II传感器,构建全球适用的陆地气溶胶反演算法。为测试MERSI-II传感器气溶胶反演的定量能力,并与MODIS气溶胶产品具有可对比性,本文算法设计尽可能与DT算法在各方面处理相一致,主要在两个方面进行了改进与优化：（1）考虑到传感器波段设置差异,给出了针对MERSI-II的地表反射率估计模型;（2）改进内陆水体判别方法,解决DT算法雾霾漏反演的缺陷。通过将单景反演结果与MODIS气溶胶产品对比,反演结果的空间分布和值域大小均具有较好的一致性,相关系数达到0.9以上;有效地实现雾霾高值区反演,而MODIS产品在该区域漏反演。通过对3个月份全球数据反演试验,利用AERONET地基站网观测数据对结果进行验证,落入期望误差EE=±（0.05+0.15τ）范围的点数达到65.14%,接近2/3的要求,相关系数达到0.866,整体具有较高的验证精度;MERSI幅宽大于MODIS,加之本文像元掩膜的改进,使得MERSI反演像元数增加更多,匹配的验证点比例较MODIS高出20%左右。进一步将月平均结果与MODIS进行对比,空间分布一致性较好,反演结果大小对比相关性较好,相关系数达到0.93左右。表明本文针对MERSI-II气溶胶反演算法结果已接近国际同类型产品的精度要求,将为全球长时间序列气溶胶观测有提供重要补充。从而印证了MERSI观测数据已具有较好的定量应用能力,传感器性能、定标等正在逐渐走向成熟。     

Spatio-temporal Rainfall Distribution and Markov Chain Analogue Year Stochastic Daily Rainfall Model in Ethiopia

This paper aims at the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia and developing stochastic daily rainfall model. Particularly, in this study, we used a Markov Chain Analogue Year (MCAY) model that is, Markov Chain with Analogue year (AY) component is used to model the occurrence process of daily rainfall and the intensity or amount of rainfall on wet days is described using Weibull, Log normal, mixed exponential and Gamma distributions. The MCAY model best describes the occurrence process of daily rainfall, this is due to the AY component included in the MC to model the frequency of daily rainfall. Then, by combining the occurrence process model and amount process model, we developed Markov Chain Analogue Year Weibull model (MCAYWBM), Markov Chain Analogue Year Log normal model (MCAYLNM), Markov Chain Analogue Year mixed exponential model (MCAYMEM) and Markov Chain Analogue Year gamma model (MCAYGM). The performance of the models is assessed by taking daily rainfall data from 21 weather stations (ranging from 1 January 1984-31 December 2018). The data is obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorology Agency (ENMA). The result shows that MCAYWBM, MCAYMEM and MCAYGM performs very well in the simulation of daily rainfall process in Ethiopia and their performances are nearly the same with a slight difference between them compared to MCAYLNM. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the four models: MCAYGM, MCAYWBM, MAYMEM and MCAYLNM are 2.16%, 2.27%, 2.25% and 11.41% respectively. Hence, MCAYGM, MCAYWBM, MAYMEM models have shown an excellent performance compared to MCAYLNM. In general, the light tailed distributions: Weibull, gamma and mixed exponential distributions are appropriate probability distributions to model the intensity of daily rainfall in Ethiopia especially, when these distributions are combined with MCAYM.     

青藏高原东缘非刚性书斜式断层模型的物理模拟实验研究

印度板块和欧亚板块碰撞导致青藏高原垂向上整体快速隆升的同时,也导致东缘被断裂分割的块体沿着大规模走滑断裂的横向滑移,这也是青藏高原演化变形的两种端元模型:大陆逃逸模式和地壳增厚模式。本文设计了三种非刚性书斜式断层模型,运用粒子速度场成像技术(PIV, Particle Image Velocimetry)监测模型表面变形。实验结果表明,非刚性块体边界受力前后,位移场、速度、剪应变和面应变会有明显的不同。根据实验结果主要得出两点结论:①青藏高原东缘的变形是连续的,块体内部发育了冲断带、裂谷系统和右行走滑断裂系统;②自中新世以来,青藏高原东缘主要经历了两阶段的演化,早中新世-晚中新世(22～8Ma),既有左行走滑活动,也有块体的顺时针旋转,形成了近东西向的祁连山-南山冲断带、积石山冲断带、祁漫塔格冲断带、渭河地堑以及近南北向的右行走滑断裂;晚中新世(8Ma)以来,块体旋转量极少,主要以左行走滑断裂为主,发育了近南北向的冲断带和裂谷系统。     

STUDY ON THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION CAUSED BY ATMOSPHERIC HAZE IN GUANGZHOU AREA

In recent years the pollution of aerosol is getting worse and worse in Guangzhou area. The haze weather mainly occurs from October to April of the following year, resulting in visibility deterioration. From the beginning of the 1980's the visibility dramatically deteriorated, obviously increasing haze weather, in which there are three big fluctuations, respectively showing the periods of pollution of dust, sulphate and dust, fine particle from photochemical process and sulphate and dust accompanying the development of economy. The long-term tendency of visibility caused by fog and light fog does not have the tendency due to human activity or economical development and the variation mainly show the inner interannual and interdecadal variation of climate. The deterioration of visibility has close relation to the fine particles in Guangzhou area, with half of PM10 surpassing the limits set by national second graded standard, meanwhile, all values of PM2.5 rise above the day-mean limits of American national standard, indicating very high fine particle concentration. The ratio of PM2.5 to PM10 is also very high, reaching 62% - 69%, especially higher in dry seasons than in rainy seasons.     

铀矿床作为高放废物处置库天然类似物的国内外研究进展

铀矿床具有目前国际上开发的高放废物深地质处置概念的相似特征，对其开展天然类比研究，是认识核素在地质环境中迁移行为的一种有效方法。本文阐述了高放废物深地质处置库天然类似物的一般概念及天然类比研究拟解决的科学问题。重点介绍了30年来国内外在天然类比研究中取得的主要成果、认识以及国内外研究进展。