云南地区6级以上地震前M_s≥4.7级地震的时空特征标度

本文研究了1920年以来,云南地区M_s≥4.7级地震的时间序列及空间分布的特征标度。结果表明,当区内M_s≥4.7级地震在时间序列上出现我们定义的平静段和活跃段后,分别于418天和312天内即可能发生6级以上地震,对应率分别为71％和87％,1920年以来云南11次M_s≥6.8级地震前,出现活跃和平静特征标度的各5次。在空间上绝大多数(80％)大震震中处于我们所定义的长时间大范围空白缺震背景区或相对少震区内,仅少数(20％)位于4.7级以上地震相对密集区内或附近。4.7级以上地震上述时间序列及空间分布特征标度,可以作为云南6级,特别是6.8级以上地震中期或短期预测的判据和指标。同时可以看出,云南6级以上地震前,4.7级以上地震在时空演变上,经历了从无序到有序的演化过程。     

中国东部地区断裂的缜奏性活动

对中国东部地区断裂的节奏性活动进行了探讨,认为这种节奏性活动主要根据构造地貌进行鉴别,并可分为六种型式:稳定—蠕滑错动;稳定—急速错动;蠕滑—急速错动;交替型蠕滑错动;交替型急速错动和复式错动。地震活动周期与断裂的节奏性活动相关联。断裂活动产生强震的型式有单发式、对偶式和连发式,这三种形式分别出现在不同的断裂中,并取决于不同区域、不同断裂的活动特征。     

太原盆地历史地震活动特征及未来地震形势估计

对公元1000－1985年太原盆地M≥4.0地震进行了时序分析，结果表明，它们在时间轴上和山西地震带及至华北地区有着相似的平静一起伏变化特点，以此划出4个地震活动期和若干活动幕，指出活动最大地震存在逐步升级现象；在空间上重复性高，形成3个地震巢和以巢为主的地震条带与地震跳迁现象，认为在2000年前后，太原盆地将处在地震高活动时段，有可能在地震巢附近发生若干个中强地震，山西和华北地区强震活动也有可能与之同步。     

准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计

反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河     

布朗族的天文历法知识刍议

布朗族使用傣历（祖葛历）,以月份结合物候变化指导生产,生活中使用７ｄ（天）为１轮的纪日制度,并将７个日名赋予不同寓意。这种状况可能距今只有２００余年的历史,在此以前的历法,由于没有文字记录而被完全淡忘了,但从其先民的崖画和口头流传的传说中,有阴阳并重、同时崇拜太阳和月亮的内容看,是处于阴阳合历初期的“物候历”,其内容应与佤族（清朝时分化）的阴阳历相似。     

嘉峪关光化楼残损变形现状及抗震性能分析

中国木结构建筑是我国宝贵的物质文化遗产和文化瑰宝，具有悠久的文化历史。以嘉峪关光化楼为依托，对光化楼进行实地调研，分析光化楼主要残损变形。采用ANSYS软件建立考虑光化楼残损变形的三维有限元精细模型，并进行模态分析与时程分析。研究结果表明，光化楼主要残损变形为油饰脱落、墙体剥蚀开裂、柱偏移等，极个别柱产生较大偏移；光化楼刚度相对稳定，前20阶振型自振频率均在10Hz以内；光化楼动力放大系数与层间位移角均较小，仍具有良好的抗震减震性能。     

The Application of a Diatom-based Transfer Function to Evaluate Regional Water-Quality Trends in Minnessota Since 1970

Significant population growth over the last three decades, as well as efforts to improve surface-water quality mandated by the Clean Water Act, potentially have had opposing influences on aquatic ecosystems in the U.S. Because historical data on water-quality trends are limited over this time period, we developed a diatom-based transfer function to reconstruct chloride, color, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), total phosphorus (TP), and pH in 55 Minnesota lakes. The lakes span three different ecoregions, as well as the Twin Cities metropolitan area, and differ in their history of settlement and land use, and in surficial geology, climate, and vegetation. Lakes in the Northern Lakes and Forest ecoregion are nearly pristine, whereas those in the other regions likely are strongly affected by urban or agricultural pollutants. Reconstructions of water-chemistry trends since 1970 suggest that recent human activities have had substantial impacts in both urban and rural areas. Chloride concentrations have increased in many Metro lakes, which may be due to road salts, and phosphorus levels have been steady or rising in agricultural regions. The majority of Metro lakes show some decline in TP, although many of the changes are not statistically significant based on our reconstruction techniques. There is no evidence that atmospheric deposition of sulfate or nitrate has caused acidification or changes in trophic state for remote lakes in the northeastern part of the state.     

Direct simulation of solute recycling in irrigated areas

Solute recycling from irrigation can be described as the process that occurs when the salt load that is extracted from irrigation wells and distributed on the fields is returned to the groundwater below irrigated surfaces by deep percolation. Unless the salt load leaves the system by means of drains or surface runoff, transfer to the groundwater will take place, sooner or later. This can lead to solute accumulation and thus to groundwater degradation, particularly in areas where extraction rates exceed infiltration rates (semi-arid and arid regions). Thus, considerable errors can occur in a predictive solute mass budget if the recycling process is not accounted for in the calculation. A method is proposed which allows direct simulation of solute recycling. The transient solute response at an extraction well is shown to be a superposition of solute mass flux contributions from n recycling cycles and is described as a function of the travel time distribution between a recycling point and a well. This leads to an expression for a transient ‘recycling source’ term in the advection–dispersion equation, which generates the effect of solute recycling. At long times, the ‘recycling source’ is a function of the local capture probability of the irrigation well and the solute mass flux captured by the well from the boundaries. The predicted concentration distribution at steady state reflects the maximum spatial concentration distribution in response to solute recycling and can thus be considered as the solute recycling potential or vulnerability of the entire domain for a given hydraulic setting and exploitation scheme. Simulation of the solute recycling potential is computationally undemanding and can therefore, for instance, be used for optimisation purposes. Also, the proposed method allows transient simulation of solute recycling with any standard flow and transport code.     

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.