黑龙江省数字化区域前兆台网AFTS系统的设计开发

针对数字化前兆数据文件多且数据量越来越大的特点,笔者研究了黑龙江省数字化区域前兆台网中心前兆数据流的传输模式,采用DOS脚本和汇编语言,设计开发了台网前兆数据每日自动下载和台站每日数据自动拨号传输的系统--Auto Fik Transmission Systern For Seismic Prectlsor Network Center By Ftp Service(简称AFTS Version 1.5).该系统减少了台网(站)值班人员每日数据处理的工作量,台网版部分整个运行过程不需人为干预,每日自动传输规定文件并生成传输文件,情况记录日志,提高了前兆数据文件网络传输效率.     

Simulating fundamental and higher harmonic VIV of slender structures

Vortex-induced vibrations (VIV) of slender marine structures are complicated response processes, where a number of distinct frequency components might be simultaneously active. These are categorized as fundamental and higher harmonics respectively, where the latter can have a tremendous impact on the fatigue life. The present work proposes a method for time domain simulation of such multi-frequency response, by introducing a higher harmonic load term to a pre-existing semi-empirical hydrodynamic force model. Forced motion tests of a circular cylinder were simulated to experimentally and qualitatively validate the fluid-structure energy transfer. Next, the model was used to predict the response of a tension dominated riser in uniform current, for 22 velocities in the range 0.3 m/s to 2.4 m/s. The empirical input was chosen to give an average best fit with respect to the cross-flow strain measurements, which allowed dominating frequencies, fatigue damage, higher harmonics and response variability to be predicted with a high level of realism. Same set of empirical coefficients was subsequently used to predict VIV of three additional flexible pipe experiments in uniform flow, with significant differences in structural properties. The results were satisfactory for all cases, but could be improved by moderate changes to the empirical input.     

贵州高原不同地貌区和植被类型水分利用效率的时空分异特征

贵州高原具有少日照、多云雨和复杂下垫面的山地特殊气候和地形,准确探究该区域生态系统水分利用效率(WUE)的时空分异特征对进一步了解喀斯特地区碳水循环过程具有重要意义。本文气象站点数据用ANUSPLIN软件进行插值处理,与使用时间序列谐波分析法和质量控制文件重新构建高质量的MODIS-NDVI数据作为CASA模型的输入数据模拟植被NPP,再结合MOD16-ET数据估算WUE。综合利用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和稳定性分析等统计方法,对贵州高原2000—2014年各地貌区、植被类型WUE的时空分异特征进行对比分析。研究表明:(1)研究区近15年来WUE均值和趋势的空间格局都呈西部高于东部的特点, WUE趋势呈显著增加态势( R^2 =0.63, P <0.001)。(2)从各地貌区来看,多年WUE均值排序为:断陷盆地>岩溶峡谷>峰丛洼地>非喀斯特地貌>岩溶高原>岩溶槽谷,其中断陷盆地和岩溶峡谷呈显著( P <0.05)增加趋势。(3)从不同植被类型来看, WUE大小呈混交林>阔叶林>耕地>针叶林>草地>灌丛排序。针叶林和灌丛变异系数(CV)值较高,但前者对气候波动的抵挡能力更强,增加速率更快。草地CV值最低,变化速率最慢,不易受气候波动的影响。由于退耕还林等生态工程的实施效果显著,使耕地WUE的变化速率最快。     

Geodetic inversion for space–time distribution of fault slip with time-varying smoothing regularization

We have developed a new geodetic inversion method for space–time distribution of fault slip velocity with time-varying smoothing regularization in order to reconstruct accurate time histories of aseismic fault slip transients. We introduce a temporal smoothing regularization on slip and slip velocity through a Bayesian state space approach in which the strength of regularization (temporal smoothness of slip velocity) is controlled by a hyperparameter. The time-varying smoothing regularization is realized by treating the hyperparameter as a time-dependent stochastic variable and adopting a hierarchical Bayesian state space model, in which a prior distribution on the hyperparameter is introduced in addition to a conventional Bayesian state space model. We have tested this inversion method on two synthetic data sets generated by simulated aseismic slip transients. Results show that our method reproduces well both rapid changes of slip velocity and steady-state velocity without significant oversmoothing and undersmoothing, which has been hard to overcome by the conventional Bayesian approach with time-independent smoothing regularization. Application of this method to transient deformation in 2002 caused by a silent earthquake off the Boso peninsula, Japan, also shows similar advantages of this method over the conventional approach.     

Low detection capability of global earthquakes after the occurrence of large earthquakes: investigation of the Harvard CMT catalogue

We investigated the detection capability of global earthquakes immediately after the occurrence of a large earthquake. We stacked global earthquake sequences after occurrences of large earthquakes obtained from the Harvard centroid-moment tensor catalogue, and applied a statistical model that represents an observed magnitude–frequency distribution of earthquakes to the stacked sequence. The temporal variation in model parameters, which corresponds to the detection capability of earthquakes, was estimated using a Bayesian approach. We found that the detection capability of global earthquakes is lower than normal for several hours after the occurrence of large earthquakes; for instance, the duration of lowered detection capability of global earthquakes after the occurrence of an earthquake with a magnitude of seven or larger is estimated to be approximately 12 hr.     

Controlled source strength variation by changing the firing pressure ‐ a sensitivity study for 4D calibration

For a 4D seismic operation to be successful, it is important to know what kind of 4D signal we expect to observe, as well as its magnitude. Normally, in a 4D feasibility study, we use rock physics models to quantify the effect of fluid or pressure changes within the reservoir and calculate the corresponding effects to the seismogram. However, to find if the predicted changes are actually observable at a given field, a dedicated calibration procedure might give valuable insight. One such procedure for marine seismics is to gradually change the source strength by varying the firing pressure in order to detect the sensitivity threshold for a given subsurface reflection. This procedure would be practical and feasible if the change of the source signature changes linearly with the source pressure. However, non‐linear effects will lead to minor changes in the later arrivals of the source signature, the so‐called bubble. By investigating these introduced errors for a reasonable air‐gun array we conclude that the method is still feasible since we find it possible to control and diminish the impact of the introduced errors.     

Seismic time‐lapse effects of solution salt mining – a feasibility study

This article addresses the question whether time‐lapse seismic reflection techniques can be used to follow and quantify the effects of solution salt mining. Specifically, the production of magnesium salts as mined in the north of the Netherlands is considered. The use of seismic time‐lapse techniques to follow such a production has not previously been investigated. For hydrocarbon production and CO₂ storage, time‐lapse seismics are used to look at reservoir changes mainly caused by pressure and saturation changes in large reservoirs, while for solution mining salt is produced from caverns with a limited lateral extent, with much smaller production volumes and a fluid (brine) replacing a solid (magnesium salt). In our approach we start from the present situation of the mine and then study three different production scenarios, representing salt production both in vertical and lateral directions of the mine. The present situation and future scenarios have been transformed into subsurface models that were input to an elastic finite‐difference scheme to create synthetic seismic data. These data have been analysed and processed up to migrated seismic images, such that time‐lapse analyses of intermediate and final results could be done. From the analyses, it is found that both vertical and lateral production is visible well above the detection threshold in difference data, both at pre‐imaging and post‐imaging stages. In quantitative terms, an additional production of the mine of 6 m causes time‐shifts in the order of 2 ms (pre‐imaging) and 4 ms (post‐imaging) and amplitude changes of above 20% in the imaged sections. A laterally oriented production causes even larger amplitude changes at the edge of the cavern due to replacement of solid magnesium salt with brine introducing a large seismic contrast. Overall, our pre‐imaging and post‐imaging time‐lapse analysis indicates that the effects of solution salt mining can be observed and quantified on seismic data. The effects seem large enough to be observable in real seismic data containing noise.