网络技术在时间服务工作中的应用

主要介绍网络技术在授时中心守时实验室的守时及授时服务系统中的应用情况。守时系统是一种需要连续、可靠运转的复杂系统，包括守时钟组、比对测量系统、原子时归算等多个环节。原子时专用局域网是守时系统的一个重要的组成部分，它有效地提高了守时、原子时及相关数据资料的传递和交换速率。时间服务的网络化、自动化不仅有效提高了工作效率，减少了人工过多干预造成的误差，更重要的是可以提高守时系统的可靠性和合理性。章详细介绍原子时局域网络（ATLAN）系统和计算机网络授时系统的设计情况。     

A hidden Markov model segmentation procedure for hydrological and environmental time series

In this paper we present a procedure for the segmentation of hydrological and enviromental time series. We consider the segmentation problem from a purely computational point of view which involves the minimization of Huberts segmentation cost; in addition this least squares segmentation is equivalent to Maximum Likelihood segmentation. Our segmentation procedure maximizes Likelihood and minimizes Huberts least squares criterion using a hidden Markov model (HMM) segmentation algorithm. This algorithm is guaranteed to achieve a local maximum of the Likelihood. We evaluate the segmentation procedure with numerical experiments which involve artificial, temperature and river discharge time series. In all experiments, the procedure actually achieves the global minimum of the Likelihood; furthermore execution time is only a few seconds, even for time series with over a thousand terms.     

Spatial variability and temporal stability of throughfall water under a dominant beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree in relationship to canopy cover

Although the spatial heterogeneity of throughfall water (TF) under forest canopies has been related to vegetation structure in several forest types, few reports have been made of the driving factors of small-scale TF variability in deciduous stands. Therefore, the spatial variability of the amount of TF water under one dominant beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree was quantified in high temporal and spatial resolution over a 2-year period to examine the temporal stability of spatial TF variability and to relate spatial TF patterns to canopy cover determined photographically above each TF collector (n = 48). The spatial variability of TF was significantly higher during the leafed periods (coefficient of variation (CV) = 18%) than during the leafless periods (CV = 8%), and a strong negative relationship was observed between the CV of event TF and the TF fraction of rainfall in the open field. Geostatistical analysis showed that the cumulative TF water during the leafed periods was spatially correlated up to a distance of 3–4 m. There was a significant temporal stability of spatial TF patterns in the growing periods and in the dormant periods, but patterns differed largely between the two periods of the year. TF water during the growing periods significantly decreased with increasing canopy cover above the sampling locations (r = −0.54, p = 0.014, n = 20), but was more closely correlated with branch cover (r = −0.77, p < 0.001). However, the spatial pattern of TF during defoliated conditions was not related to the measured variation in branch cover.     

A spatial–temporal point process model of rainfall for the Thames catchment, UK

A spatial–temporal point process model of rainfall is fitted to data taken from 23 sites across the Thames catchment, London. For the period January 1970 to December 1988 the sites have daily data, whilst for the period January 1989 to November 2003 the sites have hourly data. In addition, the records contain missing values. The fitted model is used to infill the missing values, to disaggregate the daily data to hourly data and to generate spatially consistent series at a further 25 sites across the catchment. The model is validated by considering statistical properties that are not used in the fitting procedure, which include extreme values, the proportion of dry intervals, and annual totals. Overall the performance of the model is good, with the exception of an over-estimation in cross-correlation between pairs of sites for the disaggregated series.     

A semi-analytical time integration for numerical solution of Boussinesq equation

A semi-analytical time integration method is proposed for the numerical simulation of transient groundwater flow in unconfined aquifers by the nonlinear Boussinesq equation. The method is based on the analytical solution of the system of ordinary differential equations with constant coefficients. While it is unconditionally stable and more accurate than the finite difference methods, the computational cost is much more expensive than (can be more than 10 times) that of the finite difference methods for a single time step. However, by partitioning the nonlinear parameters into linear and nonlinear parts, the costly computation can be performed only once. With larger and less variable time step sizes, the total computational cost can be significantly reduced. Three examples are included to illustrate the advantages and limitations of the proposed method.     

On ‘arriving on time’, but what is ‘on time’?

The time-geographical concept of coupling constraints, which define when, where and for how long individuals have to join other individuals and material objects, can be useful to ‘time squeeze’ studies. Geographers have typically operationalised the ‘when’ dimension of coupling constrains through arrival times at locations in physical space or the starting time of specific activities. This paper questions this approach and posits that it may be more productive to identify time-spans of acceptable or appropriate arrival times. However, these time-spans should not be expressed solely with reference to clock time. This is because boundaries on what is acceptable or appropriate depend not only on clock time but also on the times of the body and especially the time inherent to the dynamics in the juxtapositions and presence/absence of human beings and inanimate objects within a bounded physical space. Interview excerpts are presented to reveal how clock time interacts with contextual times in the modes in which parents in two-worker families perceive and cope with coupling constraints during workdays.     

干涉雷达时间序列分析方法在地面沉降监测中的应用

地面沉降已经成为全球性问题，传统的大地测量技术在日益严重的大范围地面沉降监测方面越来越显得难以胜任，新兴的 雷达干涉测量技术正好提供了一种大覆盖、高空间和高时间分辨率的地面沉降监测手段。本文以天津地区为实验区，介绍并实现了 利用PS点的InSAR时间序列分析方法，取得了较好的实验结果。     

Investigating the effect of data quality on time domain electromagnetic discrimination

Using field data and numerical simulations we investigate the effect of data quality on time domain electromagnetic discrimination. Data quality decreases when measurements contain responses not accounted for by our mathematical modelling. This can include instrument noise, inaccurately reported position and orientation information, geologic contributions to the signal, and loss of validity of the forward modelling. Survey design is critical to data quality in order to have sufficient sampling of data anomalies, and also to ensure that each target is illuminated such that both the axial and transverse components of the polarization can be excited and measured. For dipole model based discrimination algorithms, success is contingent upon the accuracy with which the components of the polarization tensor can be estimated. Field data from different survey modes are analysed to identify noise sources and provide quantitative estimates of the noise in each survey. Inversion results show that increased noise levels lead to greater spread in recovered parameters. Monte Carlo simulations are performed in order to investigate the importance of other data quality factors. Analysis of inversion results from the simulations show that anomaly size, signal to noise ratio, positioning error, line spacing and station spacing all play a role in the spread of recovered parameters. Through the analysis of our simulation results we propose a figure of merit as a means of quantifying different data quality factors with a single number and relate this number to the accuracy with which parameters can be estimated.     

Three-dimensional time-harmonic Green's functions of saturated soil under buried loading

Three-dimensional time-harmonic response of a poroelastic half space subjected to an arbitrary buried loading is investigated. The analysis starts with the field equations in cylindrical coordinates based on Biot's general theory of poroelasticity. General solutions for the displacements are first derived using the Fourier expansions and Hankel integral transform with respect to the circumferential and radial coordinates, respectively. The transformed-domain solutions are obtained in explicit form. The physical-domain displacements and stress components are then obtained numerically by inverse integral transform. Comparisons illustrating the accuracy of the developed approach are made with existing solutions for an elastic half space, which is reduced directly from the general solution developed in the paper. Numerical results are presented for the displacements of a saturated soil subjected to a horizontal internal excitation.     

Empirical evidences of persistence and dynamical chaos in solar–terrestrial phenomena

This paper presents a brief review of selected publications concerning dynamical chaos and persistence in various solar–terrestrial phenomena ranging from solar activity to climate dynamics. It draws attention to the advanced approaches known in many research areas (meteorology, hydrology, biology, economics, etc.), but not yet sufficiently used in solar–terrestrial physics. First, we introduce the concepts of dynamical (deterministic) chaos and fractional Brownian motion. Next, we discuss appropriate methods—fluctuation analysis and nonlinear time series analysis—for treatment of erratic time series based on these concepts. We outline some pitfalls and problems in the application of the discussed methods to empirical data. Finally, we present selected empirical evidence for persistence and dynamical chaos in solar activity, solar wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere, weather and climate systems.