中国沿海地区国民收入预测的新组合模型

着重讨论一种基于灰色ＧＭ（１，１）模型及国民收入决定函数模型而建立的新组合模型。该模型建模方法简单，组合性强，并且在各模型的拟合精度提高。该模型汲取了灰色ＧＭ（１，１）模型模拟国民收入变化趋势的优点和国民收入决定函数模型模拟国民收入波动的优点，使组合模型不但在趋势上符合国民收入的发展，而且也给出了在波动方面的比较一致的模拟。     

对中强地震发震时间的模糊灰色预测

本文视地震系统为模糊灰色系统,由此建立关于发震时间的模糊灰色预测模型,该模型认为已知地震样本集及待预测集的震级分布属模糊正态分布,应用模糊聚类思路于样本集元素的选取,引入最佳震级从属函数μ~*的选择过程。针对可能产生的趋势性偏差,根据实际资料对模型进行了修正。并以华北平原地震带、燕山渤海地震带及山西地震带为例,对模糊灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的实际应用及有关问题进行了初步讨论。     

GBPP－100型地面雨滴谱仪测量的可靠性

用ＧＢＰＰ－１００型地面雨滴谱仪与吸水纸斑，点法进行同步观测，对比分析ＧＢＰＰ－１００型地面雨滴谱仪测量的可靠性。结果表明：（１）两种方法测量雨滴谱所得资料除平均直径、均立方根直径相似性稍差外，其它特征量的线性相关显著性水平均为０．００５；（２）两种方法所得雨滴谱资料除平均直径、均立方根直径、降水强度稍有差异外，其它特征量均无显著差异。     

灰色系统理论在海堤沉降预测中的应用

利用灰色系统理论,对秦山核电站一期海堤沉降进行了预测,以较少的观测样本建立了新陈代谢数列,经后验差检验,观测精度达到一级。由此证明,用ＧＭ（１,１）模型进行预测,建模方便,预测精度高,在大型建筑物变形监测中有较大的实用价值。     

A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.     

Analyzing ice dynamics using Sentinel-1 data at the Solheimajoküll Glacier,Iceland

ABSTRACT

The climate in southern Iceland has warmed over the last 70 years, resulting in accelerated glacier dynamics at the Solheimajoküll glacier. In this study, we compare glacier terminus locations from 1973 to 2018, to changes in climate across the study area, and we derive ice-surface velocities (2015–2018) from satellite remote-sensing imagery (Sentinel-1) using the offset-tracking method. There have been two regional temperature trends in the study period: cooling (1973–1979) and warming (1980–2018). Our results indicate a time lag of about 20 years between the onset of glacier retreat (?53 m/year since 2000) and the inception of the warming period. Seasonally, the velocity time series suggest acceleration during the summer melt season since 2016, whereas glacier velocities during accumulation months were constant. The highest velocities were observed at high elevations where the ice-surface slope is the steepest. We tested several scenarios to assess the hydrological time response to glacier accelerations, with the highest correlations being found between one and 30 days after the velocity estimates. Monthly correlation analyses indicated inter-annual and intra-annual variability in the glacier dynamics. Additionally, we investigate the linkage between glacier velocities and meltwater outflow parameters as they provide useful information about internal processes in the glacier. Velocity estimates positively correlate with water level and negatively correlate with water conductivity between April and August. There is also a disruption in the correlation trend between water conductivity and ice velocity in June, potentially due to a seasonal release of geothermal water.     

GM(1,1)模型的遗传算法优化及效果检验

对平稳的数据和非平稳数据两种数据序列建立的GM（1，1）模型，分别用加速遗传算法（AGA）和最小二乘法（LSM）对模型参数求解。结果表明：对平稳变化数据序列，两种方法建立的预测模型的拟合优度和预测精度无显著差异；对变化幅度较大的非平稳数据序列，基于AGA的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度高于基于LSM的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度。     

低质量X射线双星的毫秒级准周期信号——最近的进展

最近对低质量X射线双星中的千赫兹准周期振动的研究表明 ,是辐射压力 ,而不是盘和磁球的相互作用以及处于盘内边界的广义相对论效应在短时标的盘切断机制上起作用。本文给出了一些研究结果及讨论。     

Ice flow direction during late Paleozoic glaciation in western Paraná Basin, Brazil

The recent discovery of ice-striated surfaces associated with the late Paleozoic Aquidauana Formation suggests that glaciers coming from southwest Africa reached westernmost parts of the Paraná Basin in central Brazil. Abrasion features were developed by glaciers moving from SSE towards NNW, mainly on an unconsolidated bed. These records expand to about 1,050,000 km², the coverage of the late Paleozoic glaciation in the region of the Paraná Basin in Western Gondwana.

Resumen

A recente descoberta de superfícies estriadas associadas à Formação Aquidauana, de idade permocarbonífera, sugere que as geleiras provenientes do sudoeste da África alcançaram as porções ocidentais da Bacia do Paraná, na região central do Brasil. As feições de abrasão foram geradas pelo deslocamento de geleiras de SSE para NNW, principalmente sobre substrato inconsolidado. Estes novos registros evidenciam que a glaciação neopaleozóica cobriu uma área de pelo menos de 1.050.000 km² na região ocupada pela Bacia do Paraná no Gondwana Ocidental.     

The Central Andean gravity high, a relic of an old subduction complex?

The Central Andean gravity high (CAGH) is a positive anomaly in isostatic residual gravity with its center located at the western flank of the Central Andes at about 24°S. The gravity was analyzed by various methods to draw quantitative conclusions about the sources of this anomaly and their process of formation. Methods include the analysis of the gravity gradients, power spectrum, wavelength filters, and Euler deconvolution.Numerical investigations of gravity field in the area of the CAGH indicate the presence of a dense body of nearly 400 km length and about 100–140 km width, that masses lie at varying depths between 10 and 38 km. A correlation between the location of the residual anomalies and the topographic lows in the area between the Salars de Atacama and Pipanaco is observed, which indicates the strong influence of the anomalous-causing rocks of the CAGH within the formation process of the Andean orogen. An influence of these causing bodies of rock on the trend of Holocene volcanic arc is likely. Genesis of the anomalous dense formations of rock could be traced back to Ordovician–Silurian time when a pre-Andean subduction zone is postulated in the region of northern Chile with its corresponding volcanic arc in the region of the CAGH.

Zusammenfassung

El campo de gravedad alto de los Andes Centrales (CAGH) consiste en una pronunciada anomalía positiva de la gravedad isostática, cuyo centro se encuentra en el borde oeste de los Andes Centrales a los 24°S. En este estudio se analizó el campo de gravedad mediante distintos métodos, de manera de poder establecer conclusiones cuantitativas sobre el causante de esta anomalía y el proceso de formación de este causante.La investigación numérica de las anomalías gravimétricas del CAGH indica la presencia de un cuerpo de alta densidad con aproximadamente 400 km de largo y 100–140 km de ancho, que se encuentra a profundidades variables entre 10 y 38 km. Se observa una correlación entre la posición de la anomalía residual y los bajos topográficos en los areas de Salares de Atacama, Arizaro, Antofalla y Pipanaco, la cual indica una fuerte influencia de rocas productoras de la anomalía en el CAGH, dentro del proceso de formación del orógeno andino. Es probable que estos cuerpos de rocas causantes de la anomalía tengan incluso influencia en el alineamiento del arco volcánico holocénico. La generación de cuerpos de rocas con una densidad anómala puede remontarse al Ordovícico–Silúrico, tiempo para el que postula una subducción pre-Andina en la región del norte de Chile y que corresponde con el arco volcánico en la región del CAGH.