凸度量空间中渐近拟非扩张映象新的带误差的Ishikawa迭代逼近

在凸度量空间中，利用新的解析法，征明了由集合序列{On}产生的在多值渐近拟非扩张映象下的新的带误差的lshikawa迭代序列的收敛性。     

具有稳健初值的选权迭代法曲面拟合模型粗差探测

将抗差估计的思想融入到二次曲面模型粗差探测的算法中,设计出对模型误差特别是粗差具有抵抗能力的粗差探测算法。稳健初值的选权迭代法即为抗差估计的一种,首先是通过线性规划的单纯形解法来计算观测值的残差,然后再根据残差和有关的参数,按所选择的权函数,计算每个观测值的权,经过迭代计算求得观测值的残差。通过实例证明,具有稳健初值的选权迭代法具有较强的稳健性和粗差探测能力。     

COMPARISON OF MEASUREMENT METHODS BASED ON A MODEL FOR THE ERROR STRUCTURE

Comparison of methods is a technique often used for investigation of systematic errors of measurementmethods.As concerns the design and analysis of such comparisons,much variety of opinion and practiceexists.In one approach a few specimens are measured several times by different operators in differentlaboratories(reproducibility conditions)and in another approach several specimens are measured on oneor a few occasions by one operator in the same laboratory(repeatability conditions).In this paper amodel for the error structure of measurements is formulated and it is emphasized that one has todistinguish between two types of systematic errors:the first type depends only on the level of themeasured quantity and the second type is specific for the separate specimens.On the basis of this modelthe information which can be obtained from the different designs of method comparisons is discussed.A new approach for the analysis of method comparisons with many specimens is also proposed.     

轨道误差对InSAR 数据处理的影响

轨道参数是InSAR 数据处理中一个重要的参数,对从最初的图像配准到最后的高程值或形变值图像生成都有着重要的影响.含有误差的轨道参数造成基线误差以残差条纹的形式存在于干涉图中.完全去除残差条纹要求轨道绝对精度低于1mm,目前的定轨精度远不能满足要求.这里推导了轨道误差和残差干涉条纹的关系,分析了轨道误差对高程值和形变值影响的特点,提出采用二次多项式拟合的方法去除残差干涉条纹,并以巴姆地区的 ENVISAT 数据证明了提出方法的有效性.     

STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCING SYSTEMATIC ERRORS ON MONTHLY REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL FORECAST

A nested-model system is constructed by embedding the regional climate model RegCM3 into a general circulation model for monthly-scale regional climate forecast over East China. The systematic errors are formulated for the region on the basis of 10-yr (1991-2000) results of the nested-model system, and of the datasets of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the temperature analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), U.S.A., which are then used for correcting the original forecast by the system for the period 2001-2005. After the assessment of the original and corrected forecasts for monthly precipitation and surface air temperature, it is found that the corrected forecast is apparently better than the original, suggesting that the approach can be applied for improving monthly-scale regional climate dynamical forecast.     

NCEP/CFS模式对东亚夏季延伸预报的检验评估

利用NCEP的气候预报系统（Climate Forecast System, CFS）所提供的1981—2004年历史回报试验结果,检验和评估了该系统对夏季东亚地区大气环流的预报技巧和系统误差;在此基础上通过提取模式预报和观测的10~20 d及30~60 d低频振荡分量,重点对我国南方3次典型持续性暴雨过程的预报技巧进行检验和诊断分析。结果表明:CFS系统对东亚整体大气环流逐日预报的可靠时效为5 d左右,60°N以北的对流层中高层高度场预报系统性偏低,而在40°~60°N则为系统性偏高。系统性误差随预报时间的延长而增加,但10 d以上预报的系统性误差大小和空间分布逐渐趋于稳定;CFS系统对低频分量的延伸期预报技巧好于对其整体大气环流的预报技巧,并且在典型持续性暴雨过程中,CFS系统对影响强降水过程的主要环流系统低频振荡特征有一定预报能力。     

多个超高阶重力场模型精度分析

分析了国际和国内公布的EGM2008、GECO、Eigen6c4、UGM2005、DQM2000d和DQM2006等超高阶重力场模型的内符合精度;利用中国境内的实测GPS/水准数据对各类模型进行了外符合精度检验;结合不同的方法对系统差进行了处理;最后基于试验区数据讨论了不同模型之间频谱组合方法对高程异常计算结果的改善情况。实验表明,Eigen-6C4模型具有更高的内符合精度,国内公布的UGM2005和DQM2006两种模型精度相当;本文提出的十参数法相比于传统四参数方法精度获得了4.6%~22.20%的提升;GECO模型和Eigen-6C4模型在实验区内外符合精度较好;不同模型之间的频谱组合可以在一定程度上提高试验区内模型确定高程异常的精度。     

Estimating the Correlated Observation-Error Characteristics of the Chinese FengYun Microwave Temperature Sounder and Microwave Humidity Sounder

In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.     

A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD

Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36h.