Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I)

Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force.     

Ellerman Bombs,Type Ⅱ White—light Flares and Magnetic Reconnection in the Solar Lower Atmosphere

Ellerman bombs and type Ⅱ white-light flares share many common features despite the large energy gap between them.Both are considered to result from local heation in the solar lower atmosphere.This paper presents numerical simulations of magnetic reconnection occurring in such a deep atmosphere,with the aim to account for the common features of the two phenomena.Our numerical results manifest the following two typical characteristics of the assumed reconnection process:(1)magnetic reconnection saturates in-600-900s,which is just the lifetime of the two phenomens;(2)ionization in the upper chromosphere consumes quite a large part of the energy released through reconnection,making the heation effect most significant in the lower chromosphere.The applicationof the reconnection model to the two phenomena is discussed in detail.     

Harmonic Structures of Gyrosynchrotron Radiation and Cyclotron Maser Instability

1 INTRODUCTIONSolar microwave bursts are usually produced by dtherellt radiation mechanisxns: gyroresonance absorption, Coulomb brernsstrahlung of the thermal baCkground plasma, as well asgyrosynchrotron radiation of the nonihermal electrons (Hildebrandt et al. 1998). Meanwhile,cyclotron or synchrotron maser instabilities may be responsible for microwave spaaes, blips, andtype ill bursts (Wu 1985; Huang 1987; Huang et al. 1996; Huang 1998), which are usuajly superposed on the ambient mi…     

二维太阳光谱观测方法和技术

经典的太阳光谱观测是一维的，它有很大的局限性。从５０年代起，天文工作者采用多种方法开展二维太阳光谱观测，已经研制出一系列仪器，建立完整的资料归算程序，取得优良成果。在二维观测资料的基础上，用理论方法推出深度分布，可以得出三维的立体图像，这会成为太阳研究的主要方法之一。     

Energetic particle acceleration in a three-dimensional magnetic field reconnection model: the role of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

The role of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence in the cosmic ray acceleration process in a volume with a reconnecting magnetic field is studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We performed modelling of proton acceleration, with the three-dimensional analytic model of stationary reconnection of Craig et al. providing the unperturbed background conditions. Perturbations of particle trajectories resulting from a turbulent magnetic field component were simulated using small-amplitude pitch-angle momentum scattering, enabling modelling of both small- and large-amplitude turbulence in a wide wavevector range. Within the approach, no second-order Fermi acceleration process is allowed. Comparison of the acceleration process in models involving particle trajectory perturbations with the unperturbed model reveals that the turbulence can substantially increase the acceleration efficiency, enabling much higher final particle energies and flat particle spectra.     

On measuring low-degree p-mode frequency splitting with full-disc integrated data

The standard method of measuring rotational splitting from solar full-disc oscillation data, based on maximum-likelihood fitting of multi-Lorentzian profiles to oscillation power spectra, systematically overestimates the splitting. One of the reasons is that the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) become unbiased only asymptotically as the number of data tends to infinity; for a finite data set they are often biased, inducing a systematic error. In this paper we assess by Monte Carlo simulations the amount of systematic error in the splitting measurement, using artificially generated power spectra. The simulations are carried out for multiplets of degree     2 and 3 with various signal-to-noise ratios, linewidths and observing times. We address the possible use of non-MLE estimators that could provide a smaller or negligible systematic error. The implication for asteroseismology is also discussed.     

Corrections to Solar Thermal Structure when a Turbulent Magnetic Field is Included

Correction of non-ideal effect due to a magnetic fluctuating tensor is derived from the ideal MHD equations. The inclusion of a magnetic turbulent field leads to modifications of the hydrostatic equilibrium equation and thermodynamical variables such as the temperature T, the adiabatic exponent γ, the adiabatic temperature gradient △↓ad and the temperature gradient △↓. In particular, the modifications in the adiabatic and radiative temperature gradients will result in a change in the Schwarzchild criterion, hence in the location of the base of the convective zone. Incorporating the modifications, we construct a modified thermodynamical equilibrium structure of the Sun.     

Solar radiative output and its variability: evidence and mechanisms

Electromagnetic radiation from the Sun is Earths primary energy source. Space-based radiometric measurements in the past two decades have begun to establish the nature, magnitude and origins of its variability. An 11-year cycle with peak-to-peak amplitude of order 0.1 % is now well established in recent total solar irradiance observations, as are larger variations of order 0.2 % associated with the Suns 27-day rotation period. The ultraviolet, visible and infrared spectral regions all participate in these variations, with larger changes at shorter wavelengths. Linkages of solar radiative output variations with solar magnetism are clearly identified. Active regions alter the local radiance, and their wavelength-dependent contrasts relative to the quiet Sun control the relative spectrum of irradiance variability. Solar radiative output also responds to sub-surface convection and to eruptive events on the Sun. On the shortest time scales, total irradiance exhibits five minute fluctuations of amplitude %, and can increase to as much as 0.015 % during the very largest solar flares. Unknown is whether multi-decadal changes in solar activity produce longer-term irradiance variations larger than observed thus far in the contemporary epoch. Empirical associations with solar activity proxies suggest reduced total solar irradiance during the anomalously low activity in the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum relative to the present. Uncertainties in understanding the physical relationships between direct magnetic modulation of solar radiative output and heliospheric modulation of cosmogenic proxies preclude definitive historical irradiance estimates, as yet.Received: 26 August 2004, Published online: 16 November 2004 Correspondence to: Claus Fröhlich     

Analyzing the capability of a radio telescope in a bistatic space debris observation system

A bistatic space debris observation system using a radio telescope as the receiving part is introduced. The detection capability of the system at different working frequencies is analyzed based on real instruments. The detection range of targets with a fixed radar cross section and the detection ability of small space debris at a fixed range are discussed. The simulations of this particular observation system at different transmitting powers are also implemented and the detection capability is discussed. The simulated results approximately match the actual experiments. The analysis in this paper provides a theoretical basis for developing a space debris observation system that can be built in China.