中南半岛影响南海夏季风建立和维持的数值研究

利用美国大气研究中心研制的第三代公共气候模式(CCM3)模拟了中南半岛对南海夏季风的建立和维持的影响,数值试验结果表明,中南半岛对南海夏季风的建立和维持起了非常重要的作用.同时还就中南半岛影响南海夏季风建立和维持的机制进行了讨论.     

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

History of Star Formation and Chemical Enrichment in the Milky Way Disk

Based on a physical treatment of the star formation law similar to that given by Efstathiou, we have improved our two-component chemical evolution model for the Milky Way disk. Two gas infall rates are compared, one exponential, one Gaussian. It is shown that the star formation law adopted in this paper depends more strongly on the gas surface density than that in Chang et al. It has large effects on the history of star formation and gas evolution of the whole disk. In the solar neighborhood, the history of chemical evolution and star formation is not sensitive to whether the infall rate is Gaussian or exponential. For the same infall time scale, both forms predict the same behavior for the current properties of the Galactic disk. The model predictions do depend on whether or not the infall time scale varies with the radius, but current available observations cannot decide which case is the more realistic. Our results also show that it would be inadequate to describe the gradient evolution along the Gala     

惠州市1：5000卫星正射影像图测绘工程研究

我国利用IKONOS卫星影像制作1:5000正射影像图主要是集中在研究领域。惠州市国土资源局于2004年2月利用IKONOS卫星影像制作覆盖惠州市辖区1．2万平方公里的1:5000正射影像图,项目由广东省国土资源信息中心承担。大面积的测区利用IKONOS卫星制作1: 5000正射影像图在国内还属首次。本文探讨该测绘工程的实施技术及质量控制方法。     

Carbon isotope composition of the Lower Triassic marine carbonates, Lower Yangtze Region, South China

The Early Triassic is a critical period in earth his- tory. A series of events such as volcano eruptions[1,2], sea-level fluctuations, changes in environmental con- ditions[3], mass extinctions[4,5] as well as global negative carbon isotope excursions[6-9] have been discovered in the uppermost Permian or across the Permian-Triassic boundary. Large scale sea-level rise[10-12], restoration of environment conditions, re- covery of ecosystem[13], including gradual carbon iso- tope rise[14] occur…     

Synergy of multiple geophysical approaches to unravel explosive eruption conduit and source dynamics - A case study from Stromboli

An effective approach to understanding the dynamics of explosive volcanic eruptions and the conduit systems that drive them is through synergy of multiple data sets. Three data sets that lend themselves to ease of integration are seismic, infrasonic and thermal. Although approaches involving these data have been used to record volcanological phenomena since 1862, 1955 and 1965, respectively, their integrated use has only developed since 1999. When combined, these three data sets allow constraint of shallow system geometry and the dynamics of the explosive events that occur within that system. Using Stromboli volcano (Italy) as a case study, we review the complete range of geochemical and geophysical studies that can be applied. In doing so, we aim to show how integration of these diverse studies allows insights into a plumbing system and the dynamics of the eruptive activity that the system feeds. When combined at Stromboli, these data provide constraint of multiple system parameters including chamber depths, gas and magma fluxes, shallow system magma residence times, explosion source depths, and the rise/ejection velocities of ascending gas slugs and ejecta. In turn, these results allow various conduit and eruption dynamic models to be applied and tested.The persistent and repeated mildly explosive events that characterize Stromboli have been modeled in terms of the coalescence of gas within the magma to form large gas slugs that ascend the remaining portion of the conduit to burst at the free surface. Our integrated seismic, infrasonic and thermal data sets indicate that gas coalescence occurs at a depth of ∼260 m, with a typical event frequency of ∼9/h. Infrasonic and thermal data show the explosion source to be located 20-220 m below the vent. Thermal data give emission velocities for the ejected fragments of 8-20 m/s, which converts to gas jet velocities of 23-39 m/s. Tracking these parameters in space and time shows that, although eruptions at Stromboli can be grouped into two characteristic types (simple and complex-each of which characterizes a particular crater, NE and SW, respectively), events within each type show significant short-term variability. The system does, however, appear robust, maintaining its characteristic strombolian eruption style after significant effusive phases and more energetic explosive events.     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene environments in Valle Carbajal, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

The authors discuss Late Pleistocene–Holocene depositional environments in one of the Fuegian Andes valleys on the basis of palynological, geomorphological, and sedimentological analyses from two sites located near the Beagle Channel. The results obtained at these localities reinforce and refine the Late Pleistocene–Holocene climatic pattern previously recorded there. A colder period, associated with the Younger Dryas stadial event, is suggested by low Nothofagus pollen frequency, and communities of grass, low scrub, and shrub heath expanded into the low/middle slopes (10,310 ¹⁴C yr BP). By ca. 9500 ¹⁴C yr BP, warmer and drier conditions occurred, as evidenced by the development of open-grown vegetation in the valley floors (pollen zone O-3), followed by the expansion of open Nothofagus woodland (pollen zone O-2) in the middle Holocene. The milder climate subsequently changed, as indicated by the spreading of the closed forest and mire (pollen zone O-1), to more humid and cooler conditions during the last ca. 5000 yr BP.     

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France): A new lacustrine sequence of the early Middle Pleistocene in western Europe

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France) provides a long lacustrine sequence (40.6 m) attributed to the early Middle Pleistocene. Sediment, pollen and diatoms analysis of its upper part (AL2 core, 14.6 m) indicates two temperate phases marked by high lake levels, forest development and vegetation expansion. They are separated by a cold period during which lake level drops, coarse sediment input increases and steppic and xerophilous plants develop. Pollen data suggests that this sequence belongs to the upper part of the Cromerian complex. These results are in agreement with the 557 ± 3 ka (±12 ka, including all errors) ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age obtained from an interbedded tephra layer emitted by the Mont-Dore/Sancy strato-volcano and establish that this sequence probably covers the MIS 15 substages.