Integrating farmers’ adaptive knowledge into flood management and adaptation policies in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A social learning perspective

Flood management and adaptation are important elements in sustaining farming production in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). While over the past decades hydraulic development introduced by the central government has substantially benefited the rural economy, it has simultaneously caused multiple barriers to rural adaptation. We investigate the relational practices (i.e., learning interactions) taking place within and across the flood management and adaptation boundaries from the perspective of social learning. We explore whether and how adaptive knowledge (i.e., experimental and experiential knowledge) derived from farmers’ everyday adaptation practices contributes to local flood management and adaptation policies in the selected areas. We collected data through nine focus groups with farmers and thirty-three interviews with government officials, environmental scientists, and farmers. Qualitative analysis suggests that such processes are largely shaped by the institutional context where the boundary is embedded. This study found that while the highly bureaucratic operation of flood management creates constraints for feedback, the more informal arrangements set in place at the local level provide flexible platforms conducive to open communication, collaborative learning, and exchange of knowledge among the different actors. This study highlights the pivotal role of shadow systems that provide space for establishing and maintaining informal interactions and relationships between social actors (e.g., interactions between farmers and extension officials) in stimulating and influencing, from the bottom-up, the emergence of adaptive knowledge about flood management and adaptation in a local context.     

MODELLING UNKNOWN STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE USE OF NEURAL NETWORKS

This paper explores the potential of using neural networks to identify the internal forces of typical systems encountered in the field of earthquake engineering and structural dynamics. After formulating the identification task as a neural network learning procedure, the method is applied to a representative chain-like system under deterministic and stochastic excitations. The neural network based identification method provides very good results for general classes of multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems. The range of validity of the approach is demonstrated, and some application issues are discussed for (a) partially known multi-degree-of-freedom systems and (b) completely unknown systems.     

IN SITU MEASUREMENTS OF BASAL WATER QUALITY AND PRESSURE AS AN INDICATOR OF THE CHARACTER OF SUBGLACIAL DRAINAGE SYSTEMS

Continuous subglacial measurements of turbidity and electrical conductivity — two indicators of basal water quality — can be used to help characterize subglacial drainage systems. These indicators of water quality yield information that complements that provided by water pressure measurements. Quantitative attributes of subglacial drainage systems, such as water velocity and subglacial residence time, as well as qualitative behaviour — for example, spatial and temporal variations in system morphology — can be deduced using water quality measurements. Interpretation is complicated by the many potential influences on turbidity and electrical conductivity, but when these complications are appreciated a richer interpretation results. To demonstrate the utility of basal water quality measurements, observations from Trapridge Glacier, Yukon Territory, Canada were examined. The data reveal complex behaviour of the drainage system, but constraints imposed by basal water quality measurements help to clarify the nature of the subglacial flow system. The measurement and interpretation methods described and demonstrated are applicable to other glaciers. As such, they should prove useful for characterizing different subglacial drainage configurations and behaviours, thereby improving our general understanding of the hydrology and dynamics of wet-based glaciers.     

基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型

利用多智能体和元胞自动机对城市土地资源的可持续利用进行了规划。根据环境经济学资源分配原理和可持续发展理论,提出结合多智能体及元胞自动机的微观规划模型,在时间和空间上合理分配及规划城市土地资源的利用,以避免浪费不可再生的土地资源。该模型由相互作用的多智能体层、元胞自动机层和环境因素层组成,可方便地探索不同土地利用政策下城市土地利用发展情景,能够为城市规划提供有用的决策依据。以广州市海珠区为实验区,在可持续发展为前提的规划下,模拟了1995-2010年的城市扩展的动态变化,并讨论了在不同规划情景下城市土地资源的利用效率及合理性。     

基于耦合场分割算法的ANSYS二次开发及其应用

耦合场分割算法是当前研究的热点之一。本文首先对比研究了瞬态热传导方程和孔压增长消散方程,提出了一种适用于ANSYS二次开发的分割算法,并对2种不同的预测值计算模式对计算稳定性的影响进行了分析。然后,据之对ANSYS温度—结构耦合场模块进行了开发,形成了岩土工程有效应力计算模块。数值实验表明,这种方法具有较高的计算精度和良好的计算稳定性,并且能够充分利用现有程序资源,具有较高的工程应用价值。     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

The Austrian node of the natural resources satellite remote sensing cloud service platform:examples of Sino-Austrian cooperation

The Austrian node of the Natural Resources Satellite Remote Sensing Cloud Service Platform was established in 2016 through a cooperation agreement between the Land Satellite Remote Sensing Application Center(LASAC),Ministry of Natural Resources of the Peoples Republic of China and the University of Vienna,Austria.Under this agreement panchromatic and multi-spectral data of the Chinese ZY-3 satellite are pushed to the server at the University of Vienna for use in education and research.So far,nearly 500 GB of data have been uploaded to the server.This technical note briefly introduces the ZY-3 system and illustrates the implementation of the agreement by the first China-Sat Workshop and several case studies.Some of them are already completed,others are still ongoing.They include a geometric accuracy validation of ZY-3 data,an animated visualization of image quick views on a spherical display to demonstrate the time series of the image coverage for Austria and Laos,and the use of ZY-3 data to study the spread of bark beetle in the province of Lower Austria.An accuracy study of DTMs from ZY-3 stereo data,as well as a land cover analysis and comparison of Austria with ZY-3 and other sensors are still ongoing.     

人类世可持续发展背景下的远程耦合框架及其应用

在全球一体化进程不断加深的背景下,国家与地区之间的联系日益紧密,产生了一系列跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的社会—经济—环境影响,远程耦合（Telecoupling,社会、经济、环境的远距离相互作用）科学概念和综合框架的提出为解决上述问题提供了新方法和新途径。为更好促进远程耦合综合框架的正确使用和规范推广,本文系统解析了远程耦合综合框架,厘清各组成部分的定义和功能,梳理了框架的应用现状;通过对3个中国典型案例的阐释,展示了远程耦合综合框架的使用方法、结果分析及由此得出的科学意义和政策价值;最后描述了远程耦合综合框架使用中需要重点关注的问题,并对其应用前景进行了展望。远程耦合综合框架的推广应用有助于以跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的视角,重新审视多个人类与自然耦合系统的相互作用,揭示隐藏的远距离地理空间作用的科学价值,服务于有关政策的制定和实施,促进全球社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。     

Satellite-derived rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Bogowonto Catchment,Central Java,Indonesia

Satellite rainfall products for landslide early warning prediction have been spotlighted by several researchers, in the last couple of decades. This study investigates the use of TRMM and ERA-Interim data, for the determination of rainfall thresholds and the prediction of precipitation, respectively, to be used for landslide early warning purposes at the Bogowonto catchment, Central Java, Indonesia. A landslide inventory of 218 landslides for the period of 2003–2016 was compiled, and rainfall data were retrieved for the landslide locations, as given by 6 ground stations, TRMM, and ERA-Interim data. First, rainfall data from the three different sources was compared in terms of correlation and extreme precipitation indices. Second, a procedure for the calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence was followed consisting of four steps: i) the TRMM-based rainfall data was reconstructed for selected dates and locations characterized by landslide occurrence and non-occurrence; ii) the antecedent daily rainfall was calculated for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days for the selected dates and locations; iii) two-parameter daily rainfall-antecedent rainfall thresholds were calculated for the aforementioned dates; after analysis of the curves the optimum number of antecedent rainfall days was selected; and (iv) empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence were determined. The procedure was repeated for the entire landslide dataset, differentiating between forested and built-up areas, and between landslide occurrence in four temporal periods, in relation to the monsoon. The results indicated that TRMM performs well for the detection of very heavy precipitation and can be used to indicate the extreme rainfall events that trigger landslides. On the contrary, as ERA-Interim failed to detect those events, its applicability for LEWS remains limited. The 15-day antecedent rainfall was indicated to mostly affect the landslide occurrence in the area. The rainfall thresholds vary for forested and built-up areas, as well as for the beginning, middle and end of the rainy season.     

星站差分与PPP技术在深远海调查中的位置服务精度分析

利用在全球不同海域的船载GNSS进出港数据,以事后动态处理技术(PPK)的坐标计算值为评价基准,分析了Veripos星站差分系统和事后动态精密单点定位技术(PPP)在不同运动状态下的位置服务精度。结果表明,Veripos与PPP在低动态下的平面与高程位置服务精度可优于6.2 cm和14.9 cm,在常规动态下平均精度优于20 cm;PPP与Veripos坐标分量平均互差小于15 cm,标准差小于23 cm,在深远海调查中PPP技术可作为星站差分系统的有效补充和特殊情况下的位置服务替代。